246
ACUS01 KWNS 040602
SWODY1
SPC AC 040558
DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1158 PM CST WED MAR 03 2004
VALID 041200Z - 051200Z
THERE IS A MDT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 45 SSW
JBR 35 SSW PBF 45 NW POE 30 E SAT 25 WNW JCT 40 W SPS 40 SW UMN 35
WSW UNO 45 SSW JBR.
THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 20 SSE
P07 50 SSW CVS 15 ENE GAG 30 E STJ 35 N MLI 10 SW CGX IND 15 N UOX
35 W 7R4 ..CONT.. 15 SSE CRP 50 SSE LRD.
GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 45 S CRP 35 WNW MFE
..CONT.. 70 E DUG 10 E FHU 35 WSW TUS 45 NW GBN 35 WSW PRC 20 SSE
4BL 40 SE GUC 20 WSW EHA 50 S DDC 20 W SLN 35 NW DSM 45 SSW LSE 15
NNW MTW 85 E OSC ..CONT.. 25 SSW BUF 15 SE ZZV 65 E BWG 15 SSE MSL
35 ESE 7R4.
...THERE IS A MDT RISK OF SVR TSTMS FROM PARTS OF CNTRL THROUGH N TX
INTO SERN OK...WRN/CNTRL AR AND NW LA...
...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS FROM THE SRN PLAINS INTO THE
LOWER AND MID MS VALLEYS...
...SYNOPSIS...
THE STRONG SHORTWAVE TROUGH OVER NWRN MEXICO EARLY THIS MORNING WILL
EJECT NEWD INTO THE SRN PLAINS THURSDAY AS UPSTREAM IMPULSE DROPS SE
INTO THE NWRN STATES. IN RESPONSE TO THE STRONG UPPER DIVERGENCE AND
ASCENT ACCOMPANYING THE ASSOCIATED JET...SURFACE LOW WILL DEEPEN AND
LIFT NEWD THROUGH NWRN TX AND OK THURSDAY AND INTO THE MID MS VALLEY
THURSDAY NIGHT. AS SURFACE LOW DEEPENS AND LOW LEVEL JET
INTENSIFIES...WARM FRONT NOW FROM AR WSWWD THROUGH SWRN TX WILL LIFT
NWD THROUGH OK AND INTO MO...WHILE A DRY LINE DEVELOPS AND SWEEPS
EWD THROUGH MUCH OF TX AND OK.
...SRN PLAINS THROUGH LOWER AND MID MS VALLEY REGIONS...
LARGE WARM SECTOR WILL EXIST E OF DEVELOPING DRYLINE THROUGH MUCH OF
TX AND SPREAD NWD INTO OK AND AR THURSDAY. THOUGH MARITIME TROPICAL
AIR WITH SURFACE DEWPOINTS IN THE MID TO UPPER 60S WILL CHARACTERIZE
THE BOUNDARY LAYER...LIMITING FACTOR FOR SUBSTANTIAL DESTABILIZATION
WILL BE WIDESPREAD CLOUDS AND AREAS OF CONVECTION DEVELOPING EARLY
IN THE WARM SECTOR. THE 00Z RAOB DATA INDICATED THE ATMOSPHERE TO BE
STRONGLY CAPPED TO SURFACE BASED STORMS OVER MUCH OF TX. BOTH THE
RUC AND THE ETA RUNS ERODE THE CAP BY EARLY THURSDAY MORNING AND
DEVELOP PRECIPITATION IN THE WARM SECTOR. LATEST WV IMAGERY DOES
IMPLY AN AREA OF MID/HIGH LEVEL ASCENT OVER NRN MEXICO SPREADING NWD
THROUGH TX...POSSIBLY ASSOCIATED WITH A LEAD IMPULSE IN THE SRN
STREAM. HOWEVER...NOT SURE IF THE VERTICAL MOTION ASSOCIATED WITH
THIS FEATURE WILL BE SUFFICIENT TO ERODE THE CAP AS EARLY AS
INDICATED IN THE MODELS. IF STORMS DEVELOP EARLY...WARM SECTOR WILL
HAVE A MORE DIFFICULT TIME DESTABILIZING.
IN ANY EVENT SURFACE BASED STORMS WILL EVENTUALLY DEVELOP IN WARM
SECTOR AS HEIGHT FALLS AND FROM UPSTREAM SHORTWAVE SPREAD EWD. OTHER
STORMS MAY ALSO DEVELOP FARTHER W INTO W TX ALONG SHARPENING DRYLINE
AS CAP WEAKENS.
DEEPENING SURFACE LOW AND STRENGTHENING LOW-MID LEVEL WIND FIELDS
WILL SUPPORT STRONG SHEAR PROFILES SUPPORTIVE OF SUPERCELLS
THROUGHOUT THE WARM SECTOR WITH 0-6 KM SHEAR IN EXCESS OF 50 KT AND
0-2 KM STORM RELATIVE HELICITY FROM 300-500 M2/S2. ANY BREAKS IN THE
CLOUDS/AREAS OF PRECIPITATION MAY ALLOW STORMS DEVELOPING E OF THE
DRYLINE TO INTENSIFY DURING THE DAY WITH POTENTIAL FOR A FEW
SUPERCELLS CAPABLE OF PRODUCING TORNADOES... ESPECIALLY IN MODERATE
RISK AREA. BUT EXTENT AND DEGREE OF TORNADO THREAT WILL BE HIGHLY
CONDITIONAL ON EXTENT OF SURFACE BASED INSTABILITY.
OTHER STORMS WILL ALSO LIKELY DEVELOP FARTHER W ALONG THE DEVELOPING
DRYLINE IN THE MORE STRONGLY FORCED REGIME AND MOVE EWD THROUGH TX
DURING THE DAY. THESE STORMS WILL LIKELY EVOLVE INTO A LINE OR LINE
SEGMENTS BUT WITH POTENTIAL FOR EMBEDDED SUPERCELLS. DAMAGING WIND
AND LARGE HAIL SHOULD BE THE MAIN THREAT WITH THIS ACTIVITY...BUT
ISOLATED TORNADOES WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE.
OVERNIGHT SEVERE THREAT...MAINLY IN THE FORM OF ISOLATED DAMAGING
WIND AND ISOLATED TORNADOES WILL SPREAD EWD AND NEWD INTO THE LOWER
AND MID MS VALLEYS.
..DIAL.. 03/04/2004
...NOTICE...
FOR USERS DECODING THE POINTS PARAGRAPH HEREIN...LATITUDE AND
LONGITUDE POINTS FOR THE CATEGORICAL AND PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK
GRAPHICS ALSO ARE LOCATED IN A SEPARATE PRODUCT UNDER THE WMO
HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...WUUS02 PTSDY2...AND WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE
INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL EVENTUALLY BE DISCONTINUED.
Click the links below to go to previous bulletins.
DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1158 PM CST WED MAR 03 2004
DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0711 PM CST WED MAR 03 2004
DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0154 PM CST WED MAR 03 2004
DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1034 AM CST WED MAR 03 2004
DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0646 AM CST WED MAR 03 2004
DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1157 PM CST TUE MAR 02 2004
DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0656 PM CST TUE MAR 02 2004
DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0202 PM CST TUE MAR 02 2004
DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1022 AM CST TUE MAR 02 2004
DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0659 AM CST TUE MAR 02 2004
DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1141 PM CST MON MAR 01 2004
DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0656 PM CST MON MAR 01 2004
DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK RESENT 1
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0236 PM CST MON MAR 01 2004
DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0209 PM CST MON MAR 01 2004
DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1011 AM CST MON MAR 01 2004
DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0654 AM CST MON MAR 01 2004
DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1155 PM CST SUN FEB 29 2004
DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0655 PM CST SUN FEB 29 2004
DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0208 PM CST SUN FEB 29 2004
DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1027 AM CST SUN FEB 29 2004
DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0653 AM CST SUN FEB 29 2004
DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK CORR 1
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1216 AM CST SUN FEB 29 2004
DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1152 PM CST SAT FEB 28 2004
DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0707 PM CST SAT FEB 28 2004
DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0655 PM CST SAT FEB 28 2004
DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0200 PM CST SAT FEB 28 2004
DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1024 AM CST SAT FEB 28 2004
DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0650 AM CST SAT FEB 28 2004