246 
ACUS01 KWNS 040602
SWODY1
SPC AC 040558

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1158 PM CST WED MAR 03 2004 VALID 041200Z - 051200Z THERE IS A MDT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 45 SSW JBR 35 SSW PBF 45 NW POE 30 E SAT 25 WNW JCT 40 W SPS 40 SW UMN 35 WSW UNO 45 SSW JBR. THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 20 SSE P07 50 SSW CVS 15 ENE GAG 30 E STJ 35 N MLI 10 SW CGX IND 15 N UOX 35 W 7R4 ..CONT.. 15 SSE CRP 50 SSE LRD. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 45 S CRP 35 WNW MFE ..CONT.. 70 E DUG 10 E FHU 35 WSW TUS 45 NW GBN 35 WSW PRC 20 SSE 4BL 40 SE GUC 20 WSW EHA 50 S DDC 20 W SLN 35 NW DSM 45 SSW LSE 15 NNW MTW 85 E OSC ..CONT.. 25 SSW BUF 15 SE ZZV 65 E BWG 15 SSE MSL 35 ESE 7R4. ...THERE IS A MDT RISK OF SVR TSTMS FROM PARTS OF CNTRL THROUGH N TX INTO SERN OK...WRN/CNTRL AR AND NW LA... ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS FROM THE SRN PLAINS INTO THE LOWER AND MID MS VALLEYS... ...SYNOPSIS... THE STRONG SHORTWAVE TROUGH OVER NWRN MEXICO EARLY THIS MORNING WILL EJECT NEWD INTO THE SRN PLAINS THURSDAY AS UPSTREAM IMPULSE DROPS SE INTO THE NWRN STATES. IN RESPONSE TO THE STRONG UPPER DIVERGENCE AND ASCENT ACCOMPANYING THE ASSOCIATED JET...SURFACE LOW WILL DEEPEN AND LIFT NEWD THROUGH NWRN TX AND OK THURSDAY AND INTO THE MID MS VALLEY THURSDAY NIGHT. AS SURFACE LOW DEEPENS AND LOW LEVEL JET INTENSIFIES...WARM FRONT NOW FROM AR WSWWD THROUGH SWRN TX WILL LIFT NWD THROUGH OK AND INTO MO...WHILE A DRY LINE DEVELOPS AND SWEEPS EWD THROUGH MUCH OF TX AND OK. ...SRN PLAINS THROUGH LOWER AND MID MS VALLEY REGIONS... LARGE WARM SECTOR WILL EXIST E OF DEVELOPING DRYLINE THROUGH MUCH OF TX AND SPREAD NWD INTO OK AND AR THURSDAY. THOUGH MARITIME TROPICAL AIR WITH SURFACE DEWPOINTS IN THE MID TO UPPER 60S WILL CHARACTERIZE THE BOUNDARY LAYER...LIMITING FACTOR FOR SUBSTANTIAL DESTABILIZATION WILL BE WIDESPREAD CLOUDS AND AREAS OF CONVECTION DEVELOPING EARLY IN THE WARM SECTOR. THE 00Z RAOB DATA INDICATED THE ATMOSPHERE TO BE STRONGLY CAPPED TO SURFACE BASED STORMS OVER MUCH OF TX. BOTH THE RUC AND THE ETA RUNS ERODE THE CAP BY EARLY THURSDAY MORNING AND DEVELOP PRECIPITATION IN THE WARM SECTOR. LATEST WV IMAGERY DOES IMPLY AN AREA OF MID/HIGH LEVEL ASCENT OVER NRN MEXICO SPREADING NWD THROUGH TX...POSSIBLY ASSOCIATED WITH A LEAD IMPULSE IN THE SRN STREAM. HOWEVER...NOT SURE IF THE VERTICAL MOTION ASSOCIATED WITH THIS FEATURE WILL BE SUFFICIENT TO ERODE THE CAP AS EARLY AS INDICATED IN THE MODELS. IF STORMS DEVELOP EARLY...WARM SECTOR WILL HAVE A MORE DIFFICULT TIME DESTABILIZING. IN ANY EVENT SURFACE BASED STORMS WILL EVENTUALLY DEVELOP IN WARM SECTOR AS HEIGHT FALLS AND FROM UPSTREAM SHORTWAVE SPREAD EWD. OTHER STORMS MAY ALSO DEVELOP FARTHER W INTO W TX ALONG SHARPENING DRYLINE AS CAP WEAKENS. DEEPENING SURFACE LOW AND STRENGTHENING LOW-MID LEVEL WIND FIELDS WILL SUPPORT STRONG SHEAR PROFILES SUPPORTIVE OF SUPERCELLS THROUGHOUT THE WARM SECTOR WITH 0-6 KM SHEAR IN EXCESS OF 50 KT AND 0-2 KM STORM RELATIVE HELICITY FROM 300-500 M2/S2. ANY BREAKS IN THE CLOUDS/AREAS OF PRECIPITATION MAY ALLOW STORMS DEVELOPING E OF THE DRYLINE TO INTENSIFY DURING THE DAY WITH POTENTIAL FOR A FEW SUPERCELLS CAPABLE OF PRODUCING TORNADOES... ESPECIALLY IN MODERATE RISK AREA. BUT EXTENT AND DEGREE OF TORNADO THREAT WILL BE HIGHLY CONDITIONAL ON EXTENT OF SURFACE BASED INSTABILITY. OTHER STORMS WILL ALSO LIKELY DEVELOP FARTHER W ALONG THE DEVELOPING DRYLINE IN THE MORE STRONGLY FORCED REGIME AND MOVE EWD THROUGH TX DURING THE DAY. THESE STORMS WILL LIKELY EVOLVE INTO A LINE OR LINE SEGMENTS BUT WITH POTENTIAL FOR EMBEDDED SUPERCELLS. DAMAGING WIND AND LARGE HAIL SHOULD BE THE MAIN THREAT WITH THIS ACTIVITY...BUT ISOLATED TORNADOES WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE. OVERNIGHT SEVERE THREAT...MAINLY IN THE FORM OF ISOLATED DAMAGING WIND AND ISOLATED TORNADOES WILL SPREAD EWD AND NEWD INTO THE LOWER AND MID MS VALLEYS. ..DIAL.. 03/04/2004 ...NOTICE... FOR USERS DECODING THE POINTS PARAGRAPH HEREIN...LATITUDE AND LONGITUDE POINTS FOR THE CATEGORICAL AND PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK GRAPHICS ALSO ARE LOCATED IN A SEPARATE PRODUCT UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...WUUS02 PTSDY2...AND WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL EVENTUALLY BE DISCONTINUED.


Click the links below to go to previous bulletins.

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1158 PM CST WED MAR 03 2004

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0711 PM CST WED MAR 03 2004

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0154 PM CST WED MAR 03 2004

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1034 AM CST WED MAR 03 2004

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0646 AM CST WED MAR 03 2004

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1157 PM CST TUE MAR 02 2004

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0656 PM CST TUE MAR 02 2004

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0202 PM CST TUE MAR 02 2004

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1022 AM CST TUE MAR 02 2004

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0659 AM CST TUE MAR 02 2004

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1141 PM CST MON MAR 01 2004

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0656 PM CST MON MAR 01 2004

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK RESENT 1
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0236 PM CST MON MAR 01 2004

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0209 PM CST MON MAR 01 2004

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1011 AM CST MON MAR 01 2004

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0654 AM CST MON MAR 01 2004

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1155 PM CST SUN FEB 29 2004

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0655 PM CST SUN FEB 29 2004

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0208 PM CST SUN FEB 29 2004

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1027 AM CST SUN FEB 29 2004

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0653 AM CST SUN FEB 29 2004

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK CORR 1
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1216 AM CST SUN FEB 29 2004

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1152 PM CST SAT FEB 28 2004

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0707 PM CST SAT FEB 28 2004

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0655 PM CST SAT FEB 28 2004

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0200 PM CST SAT FEB 28 2004

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1024 AM CST SAT FEB 28 2004

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0650 AM CST SAT FEB 28 2004

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