266 
ACUS01 KWNS 041312
SWODY1
SPC AC 041309

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0709 AM CST THU MAR 04 2004 VALID 041300Z - 051200Z THERE IS A MDT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 30 NW JCT 40 SSW ABI 30 SE LTS 25 E BVO 10 WSW UNO 40 S JBR 30 SSE ELD 55 S SHV 35 SW LFK 40 NNW VCT 15 SSW SAT 35 SSE JCT 30 NW JCT. THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 20 SE P07 15 ENE MAF 25 ENE AMA 25 E HUT 35 N MLI 15 SE CGX 15 SE IND 10 N UOX 45 WSW 7R4 ..CONT.. 45 S CRP 50 S LRD. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 55 E DUG 35 WSW TUS 35 NW GBN 35 WSW PRC 20 SSE 4BL 45 SE GUC 35 NNW EHA 40 W CNK 30 SW FOD 30 N LSE 45 S ESC 90 E OSC. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 15 SW BUF 35 ENE ZZV 45 NNW JKL 30 SSE BNA 35 E JAN 45 W HUM. ...THERE IS A MDT RISK OF SVR TSTMS OVER PORTIONS OF CNTRL/NERN TX NEWD INTO ERN OK AND AR... ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS FROM THE SRN PLAINS NEWD INTO THE SRN GREAT LAKES... --SIGNIFICANT SEVERE WEATHER EVENT IS STILL ANTICIPATED TODAY AND TONIGHT FROM CNTRL TX NEWD INTO ERN OK AND AR WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR A FEW STRONG TORNADOES AND WIDESPREAD DAMAGING WINDS-- ...SYNOPSIS... CLOSED MID/UPPER-LEVEL LOW TRANSLATING ENEWD ACROSS NRN MEXICO EARLY THIS MORNING WILL EJECT NEWD THROUGH THE SRN PLAINS AND INTO THE UPPER MIDWEST BY FRIDAY MORNING. ACCOMPANYING 90-100KT MID-LEVEL JET STREAK WILL PROPAGATE NEWD THROUGH THE TROUGH BASE WITH RESULTANT OVERALL TROUGH CONFIGURATION BECOMING INCREASINGLY NEGATIVE-TILTED WITH TIME. IN ACCORDANCE...ASSOCIATED SURFACE LOW OVER WRN TX /W OF SJT/ WILL DEEPEN RAPIDLY AS IT MOVES/DEVELOPS NEWD TO VICINITY OF LTS/SPS BY EARLY AFTERNOON AND EVENTUALLY INTO CNTRL IA BY 05/12Z. ATTENDANT WARM FRONT CURRENTLY FROM SURFACE LOW NEWD INTO E-CNTRL OK/CNTRL AR WILL LIFT NWD AHEAD OF MIGRATORY SURFACE CYCLONE...WHILE TRAILING PACIFIC FRONT/DRYLINE PUSHES EWD ACROSS THE SRN PLAINS TO THE MS RIVER BY THE END OF THE FORECAST PERIOD. ...SRN PLAINS/LOWER MS VALLEY NWD THROUGH THE MIDDLE MS VALLEY/SRN GREAT LAKES... VERY MOIST LOW-LEVEL AIRMASS /CHARACTERIZED BY DEWPOINTS IN THE MID TO UPPER 60S/ EXISTS THIS MORNING S OF RETREATING WARM FRONT OVER MUCH OF CNTRL/ERN TX/SERN OK AND WRN LA. STRENGTHENING SLY LLJ FROM CNTRL/ERN TX NWD INTO THE CNTRL LOW PLAINS/MID MS VALLEY WILL AID IN NWD ADVECTION OF THIS AIRMASS INTO ERN OK/AR AND SRN MO WITH 60F DEWPOINTS EXPECTED AS FAR N AS CNTRL MO BY EARLY EVENING. 12Z RAOBS SUGGEST THAT WIDESPREAD PRECIPITATION HAS DIMINISHED MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES OVER PORTIONS OF ERN/NRN TX AND OK DURING THE PAST 12 HRS...HOWEVER 12Z DRT SOUNDING WAS QUITE IMPRESSIVE WITH A 7.6 C/KM MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATE AND MLCAPE OF 2000 J/KG. ONGOING PRECIPITATION AND ANTECEDENT CLOUD COVER WILL LIMIT THE DESTABILIZATION PROCESS TODAY ACROSS MUCH OF OK/AR SWD INTO NRN TX WITH LIMITED DIABATIC HEATING AND AFOREMENTIONED MOIST BOUNDARY-LAYER CONTRIBUTING TO MLCAPES OF 400-800 J/KG. FARTHER S ACROSS CNTRL INTO SRN TX...THE STEEPER LAPSE RATES AND SOME BREAKS IN THE CLOUDS SHOULD ALLOW MLCAPES TO INCREASE TO 1500-2500 J/KG. CLUSTERS OF ELEVATED TSTMS WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR LARGE HAIL CURRENTLY FROM W TX/TX PNHDL EWD INTO OK WILL MOVE/DEVELOP NEWD INTO THE LOWER OH VALLEY TONIGHT. MUCAPE OF AROUND 1000 J/KG OBSERVED ON 12Z MAF SOUNDING MAY TEND TO WEAKEN WITH NWD EXTENT...HOWEVER MOIST/THERMAL ADVECTION PROCESSES ON NOSE OF STRENGTHENING LLJ SHOULD MAINTAIN WEAKLY UNSTABLE ELEVATED AIRMASS N OF WARM FRONT WITH A CONTINUED THREAT OF HAIL. WITHIN THE WARM SECTOR...STORM EVOLUTION IS A BIT MORE UNCERTAIN. CURRENT THINKING IS THAT ONGOING TSTMS OVER WRN/SWRN TX WILL CONTINUE TO INCREASE IN COVERAGE/INTENSITY THROUGH THE MORNING WITH UPSCALE EVOLUTION INTO LINEAR MCS OCCURRING FROM SURFACE LOW SWD ALONG TRAILING DRYLINE/PACIFIC FRONT. CLOSE PROXIMITY TO EJECTING UPPER SYSTEM YIELDS LOCAL HODOGRAPHS EXHIBITING LOW-LEVEL VEERING BENEATH BACKING MID AND UPPER FLOW. THIS COUPLED WITH THE LINEAR FORCING ALONG SURFACE FRONT SUGGESTS THAT CONVECTION SHOULD REMAIN LARGELY OUTFLOW-DOMINANT WITH DAMAGING WINDS BEING THE PRIMARY THREAT OWING TO DEVELOPING COLD POOL/FAST TRANSLATIONAL SPEED OF THE SYSTEM. TORNADOES WILL REMAIN POSSIBLE...ESPECIALLY ALONG SURFACE LOW TRACK AND TAIL END OF LINE AND WITH ANY EMBEDDED SUPERCELLS/COMMA HEAD CONFIGURATIONS GIVEN THE STRENGTH OF THE LOW-LEVEL SHEAR. IN ADDITION...LARGE HAIL WILL BE MOST LIKELY WITH ANY EMBEDDED SUPERCELLS AND/OR ADDITIONAL STORMS THAT DEVELOP WITHIN REGION OF STEEPER LAPSE RATES OVER CNTRL/SRN TX NEWD ALONG TRACK OF MID-LEVEL COLD POOL. ADDITIONAL STORM CLUSTERS MAY DEVELOP TO THE E IN A CORRIDOR FROM THE EDWARDS PLATEAU/HILL COUNTRY NEWD INTO N-CNTRL/NERN TX LATER THIS MORNING AND AFTERNOON WITHIN FREE WARM SECTOR AS LARGE-SCALE FORCING OVERSPREADS INSTABILITY AXIS. HERE...PROXIMITY HODOGRAPHS INDICATE MORE FAVORABLE KINEMATIC PROFILES FOR CYCLIC MESOCYCLONES AND POSSIBLY A STRONG TORNADO OR TWO GIVEN 0-1KM SRH VALUES OF 300-400 M2/S2 AND GREATER OVERALL HODOGRAPH LENGTH. AS 90-100KT MID-LEVEL JET STEAK LIFTS NEWD INTO THE RED RIVER VALLEY EARLY THIS EVENING...EXPECT THE POTENTIAL FOR WIDESPREAD DAMAGING WINDS TO INCREASE. MESOSCALE SYSTEM ASSOCIATED WITH SURFACE FRONTAL WAVE WILL RAPIDLY ACCELERATE NEWD AT THIS TIME INTO ERN OK/ERN TX...LIKELY OVERTAKING THE MAJORITY DISCRETE DOWNSTREAM DEVELOPMENT. DAMAGING WIND/ISOLATED TORNADO THREAT SHOULD THEN SPREAD NEWD ACROSS AR/NRN LA/SRN MO THIS EVENING...WITH MAINLY A DAMAGING WIND THREAT EXISTING WITH ONGOING MCS INTO THE LOWER OH VALLEY OVERNIGHT. ..MEAD/TAYLOR.. 03/04/2004 ...NOTICE... FOR USERS DECODING THE POINTS PARAGRAPH HEREIN...LATITUDE AND LONGITUDE POINTS FOR THE CATEGORICAL AND PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK GRAPHICS ALSO ARE LOCATED IN A SEPARATE PRODUCT UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...WUUS02 PTSDY2...AND WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL EVENTUALLY BE DISCONTINUED.


Click the links below to go to previous bulletins.

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0709 AM CST THU MAR 04 2004

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1158 PM CST WED MAR 03 2004

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0711 PM CST WED MAR 03 2004

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0154 PM CST WED MAR 03 2004

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1034 AM CST WED MAR 03 2004

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0646 AM CST WED MAR 03 2004

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1157 PM CST TUE MAR 02 2004

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0656 PM CST TUE MAR 02 2004

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0202 PM CST TUE MAR 02 2004

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1022 AM CST TUE MAR 02 2004

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0659 AM CST TUE MAR 02 2004

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1141 PM CST MON MAR 01 2004

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0656 PM CST MON MAR 01 2004

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK RESENT 1
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0236 PM CST MON MAR 01 2004

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0209 PM CST MON MAR 01 2004

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1011 AM CST MON MAR 01 2004

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0654 AM CST MON MAR 01 2004

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1155 PM CST SUN FEB 29 2004

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0655 PM CST SUN FEB 29 2004

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0208 PM CST SUN FEB 29 2004

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1027 AM CST SUN FEB 29 2004

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0653 AM CST SUN FEB 29 2004

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK CORR 1
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1216 AM CST SUN FEB 29 2004

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1152 PM CST SAT FEB 28 2004

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0707 PM CST SAT FEB 28 2004

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0655 PM CST SAT FEB 28 2004

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0200 PM CST SAT FEB 28 2004

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1024 AM CST SAT FEB 28 2004

The Nexlab SPC Page Main Text Page