190 
ACUS01 KWNS 041633
SWODY1
SPC AC 041630

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1030 AM CST THU MAR 04 2004 VALID 041630Z - 051200Z THERE IS A HIGH RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 20 SSE ADM 30 WNW MWL 35 N ABI 60 N ABI 10 NE FSI 15 ENE OKC 30 NE BVO 35 NNW JLN 35 NNE JLN 15 NNE UMN 10 N FYV 15 ENE MLC 20 SSE ADM. THERE IS A MDT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 35 W SJT 60 NE BGS 25 ENE LTS 30 N CNU 20 S SZL 45 N POF ARG TXK TYR AUS 45 N HDO 65 W JCT 35 W SJT. THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 20 SE P07 15 ENE MAF 50 ENE AMA 25 E HUT 35 N MLI 15 SE CGX 15 SE IND 35 WSW UOX 25 SW LCH ..CONT.. 45 S CRP 50 S LRD. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM ELP 35 W TUS 35 NW GBN 35 WSW PRC 20 SSE 4BL 45 SE GUC 35 NNW EHA 40 WNW CNK 40 E SUX 35 NW FRM 70 S DLH 15 SW IWD 25 WSW MQT 55 ENE ESC 30 SW APN 10 NW DTW 35 SSE MIE 40 SSW MSL 20 SW 7R4. ...THERE IS A HIGH RISK OF SVR TSTMS OVER PORTIONS OF NWRN TX/CENTRAL AND ERN OK/EXTREME NWRN AR/SWRN MO/SERN KS... ...THERE IS A MDT RISK OF SVR TSTMS OVER PORTIONS OF CNTRL/NERN TX NEWD INTO AR... ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS FROM THE SRN PLAINS NEWD INTO THE SRN GREAT LAKES... ...SIGNIFICANT SEVERE WEATHER EXPECTED THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT FROM PORTIONS OF TX/OK EWD INTO WRN AR/SWRN MO/SERN KS WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR A FEW STRONG TORNADOES AND WIDESPREAD DAMAGING WINDS... ...SYNOPSIS... CLOSED MID/UPPER-LEVEL LOW IN NRN MEXICO IS FORECAST TO ACCELERATE NEWD INTO THE TX PANHANDLE BY LATE AFTERNOON AND INTO THE UPPER MIDWEST BY FRIDAY MORNING. A 100 KT MID-LEVEL JET STREAK WILL LIFT OUT OF THE BASE OF THE TROUGH THIS AFTERNOON...RESULTING IN THE SYSTEM TO BECOME NEGATIVELY TILTED AND CREATE AN EXTREMELY DIFFLUENT UPPER LEVEL PATTERN AHEAD OF THE SYSTEM. AS THIS OCCURS...SURFACE LOW IN SWRN TX WILL DEEPEN AND MOVE NEWD INTO N CENTRAL OK BY 00Z AND INTO IA BY SUNRISE FRIDAY MORNING. ATTENDANT WARM FRONT ACROSS OK AND AR SHOULD LIFT NWD AHEAD OF THE NEWD MOVING SURFACE CYCLONE...WHILE TRAILING PACIFIC FRONT/DRYLINE PUSHES EWD ACROSS THE SRN PLAINS TO THE MS RIVER BY THE END OF THE FORECAST PERIOD. ...SRN PLAINS/LOWER MS VALLEY NWD THROUGH THE MIDDLE MS VALLEY/SRN GREAT LAKES... UNUSUALLY WARM/MOIST AIRMASS IS CHARACTERIZED BY DEWPOINTS IN THE MID TO UPPER 60S SOUTH OF THE RETREATING WARM FRONT. BINOVC ACROSS SWRN/NWRN TX IS EXPECTED TO SHIFT NEWD ACROSS THE HIGH RISK AREA THIS AFTERNOON WITH TEMPERATURES REACHING AT LEAST THE LOWER 70S. THESE BOUNDARY CONDITIONS COMBINED WITH 7C/KM MID LAPSE RATES WILL YIELD MLCAPES FROM 1000 TO 2000 J/KG...STRONGER THAN THE MODELS FORECAST. EXTREMELY STRONG WIND FIELDS ARE RESULTING IN DEEP LAYER SHEAR OF 70 KT WITH 1KM SRH FROM 400-500 M2/S2 IN THE WARM SECTOR. AS THE STRONG FORCING SPREADS ACROSS THE AREA...ENVIRONMENT WILL BE FAVORABLE FOR NUMEROUS SUPERCELLS WITH THE POTENTIAL OF VERY DAMAGING WINDS AND STRONG TORNADOES. THE GREATEST THREAT FOR THE STRONGEST TORNADOES WILL EXTEND FROM NWRN TX ACROSS CENTRAL/ERN OK WHERE THE STRONGEST LARGE SCALE FORCING...INSTABILITY AND SHEAR WILL BE PRESENT. IF THE STORMS DO DEVELOP INTO A LINE AS OPPOSED TO MORE CELLULAR STORMS...THEN WIDESPREAD DAMAGING WINDS WOULD BE THE GREATER THREAT. THE STORMS ARE EXPECTED TO SPREAD INTO SERN KS/WRN AR/SRN MO THIS EVENING WITH STORMS CONSOLIDATING INTO A SQUALL LINE AND WIND DAMAGE BECOMING THE MAIN THREAT. A SQUALL HAS ALREADY DEVELOPED SOUTH OF THE SURFACE LOW ALONG THE PACIFIC FRONT IN WRN TX. THIS LINE OF STORMS IS EXPECTED TO INTENSIFY AS IT MOVES INTO A MODERATELY UNSTABLE AIR MASS ACROSS SWRN/CENTRAL TX WITH MLCAPES UP TO 2500 J/KG. THE LINE OF STORMS SHOULD ALSO ACCELERATE TO 50-60 KT AS THE UPPER JET MAX MOVES INTO THE REGION. A FEW TORNADOES WILL BE POSSIBLE ALONG THE LINE WITH STORMS THAT CAN MAINTAIN ROTATION...BUT THE LINEAR FORCING AND STRONG ENVIRONMENTAL WINDS SUGGEST WIDESPREAD WIND DAMAGE IS LIKELY..ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE MODERATE RISK AREA. ..IMY/JEWELL.. 03/04/2004 ...NOTICE... FOR USERS DECODING THE POINTS PARAGRAPH HEREIN...LATITUDE AND LONGITUDE POINTS FOR THE CATEGORICAL AND PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK GRAPHICS ALSO ARE LOCATED IN A SEPARATE PRODUCT UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...WUUS02 PTSDY2...AND WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL EVENTUALLY BE DISCONTINUED.


Click the links below to go to previous bulletins.

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1030 AM CST THU MAR 04 2004

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0709 AM CST THU MAR 04 2004

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1158 PM CST WED MAR 03 2004

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0711 PM CST WED MAR 03 2004

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0154 PM CST WED MAR 03 2004

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1034 AM CST WED MAR 03 2004

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0646 AM CST WED MAR 03 2004

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1157 PM CST TUE MAR 02 2004

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0656 PM CST TUE MAR 02 2004

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0202 PM CST TUE MAR 02 2004

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1022 AM CST TUE MAR 02 2004

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0659 AM CST TUE MAR 02 2004

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1141 PM CST MON MAR 01 2004

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0656 PM CST MON MAR 01 2004

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK RESENT 1
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0236 PM CST MON MAR 01 2004

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0209 PM CST MON MAR 01 2004

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1011 AM CST MON MAR 01 2004

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0654 AM CST MON MAR 01 2004

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1155 PM CST SUN FEB 29 2004

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0655 PM CST SUN FEB 29 2004

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0208 PM CST SUN FEB 29 2004

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1027 AM CST SUN FEB 29 2004

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0653 AM CST SUN FEB 29 2004

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK CORR 1
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1216 AM CST SUN FEB 29 2004

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1152 PM CST SAT FEB 28 2004

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0707 PM CST SAT FEB 28 2004

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0655 PM CST SAT FEB 28 2004

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0200 PM CST SAT FEB 28 2004

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