928 
FOUS30 KWBC 041415
QPFERD

EXCESSIVE RAINFALL DISCUSSION
NWS HYDROMETEOROLOGICAL PREDICTION CENTER CAMP SPRINGS MD
908 AM EST THU MAR 04 2004

...VALID 15Z THU MAR 04 2004 - 12Z FRI MAR 05 2004...
...REFERENCE AWIPS GRAPHIC UNDER...DAY 1 EXCESSIVE RAINFALL...

RAINFALL COULD EXCEED FFG VALUES TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM
45 N WWR 25 WSW CNK 10 E DNS EBS 15 N MIW 35 SW CID 10 SSE MPZ
30 NNE IJX 15 WNW 1H2 ENL 30 E VIH 25 SSE SGF 20 ENE ROG
10 NE JSV 20 SE AQR 15 NW DUA 10 E PVJ 10 NE CHK 10 W HBR
35 W CSM 45 N WWR.

STG UPPER LEVEL FORCING ASOCTD WITH THE RAPIDLY LIFTING OUT NRN
OLD MEX CLOSED LO WILL LIFT MSTR ALONG A STG BAROCLINIC BAND THAT
WILL BE LIFTING NWD ACROSS THE FCST AREA.   THE 1200 UTC RAOB DATA
INDCS INTENSE LLVL SLY FLOW ACROSS THE SRN PLAINS AND LWR MS
VLY THAT IS RESULTING IN A STG MSTR FLUX INTO THE SLOWLY
RETREATING
BNDRY...THAT IS RESULTING IN  HVY OVRRNG RAINS.   INTENSIFYING JET
DYNAMICS ASOCTD WITH A DVLPNG COUPLED JET STRUCTURE IS EXPECTED
TO  AID THE LIFTING PROCESS.    MODEL QPFS FM THE 0000 AND 0600
UTC
MODEL RUNS ARE VERY SUPPORTIVE OF A SGFNT RNFL EVENT AND SEE
LITTLE REASON TO DOUBT THEIR FCSTS GIVEN THE ONGOING ACTVTY OVR
THE SRN AND CNTRL PLAINS...WITH ACTVTY SEEN TRAINING OVR LOCALIZED

AREAS.    COULD SEE TWO INCH AMTS IN A FEW HOURS AND/OR  4 TO 5
INCHES FOR STORM TOTALS.  AT THE CURRENT TIME...FEEL THE THREAT
FOR
HEAVIEST RAIN IS IN VICINITY OF ERN KS AND W CNTRL MO WHERE THE
THREAT FOR TRAINING IS THE MOST SGFNT.

KORTY

GRAPHICS AVAILABLE ON THE WEB AT WWW.HPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV

$$


Click the links below to go to previous bulletins.

EXCESSIVE RAINFALL DISCUSSION
NWS HYDROMETEOROLOGICAL PREDICTION CENTER CAMP SPRINGS MD
908 AM EST THU MAR 04 2004

EXCESSIVE RAINFALL DISCUSSION
NWS HYDROMETEOROLOGICAL PREDICTION CENTER CAMP SPRINGS MD
218 AM EST THU MAR 04 2004

EXCESSIVE RAINFALL DISCUSSION
NWS HYDROMETEOROLOGICAL PREDICTION CENTER CAMP SPRINGS MD
900 PM EST WED MAR 03 2004

EXCESSIVE RAINFALL DISCUSSION
NWS HYDROMETEOROLOGICAL PREDICTION CENTER CAMP SPRINGS MD
122 PM EST WED MAR 03 2004

EXCESSIVE RAINFALL DISCUSSION
NWS HYDROMETEOROLOGICAL PREDICTION CENTER CAMP SPRINGS MD
850 AM EST WED MAR 03 2004

EXCESSIVE RAINFALL DISCUSSION
NWS HYDROMETEOROLOGICAL PREDICTION CENTER CAMP SPRINGS MD
230 AM EST WED MAR 03 2004

EXCESSIVE RAINFALL DISCUSSION
NWS HYDROMETEOROLOGICAL PREDICTION CENTER CAMP SPRINGS MD
824 PM EST TUE MAR 02 2004

EXCESSIVE RAINFALL DISCUSSION
NWS HYDROMETEOROLOGICAL PREDICTION CENTER CAMP SPRINGS MD
1245 PM EST TUE MAR 02 2004

EXCESSIVE RAINFALL DISCUSSION
NWS HYDROMETEOROLOGICAL PREDICTION CENTER CAMP SPRINGS MD
902 AM EST TUE MAR 02 2004

EXCESSIVE RAINFALL DISCUSSION
NWS HYDROMETEOROLOGICAL PREDICTION CENTER CAMP SPRINGS MD
136 AM EST TUE MAR 02 2004

EXCESSIVE RAINFALL DISCUSSION
NWS HYDROMETEOROLOGICAL PREDICTION CENTER CAMP SPRINGS MD
801 PM EST MON MAR 01 2004

EXCESSIVE RAINFALL DISCUSSION
NWS HYDROMETEOROLOGICAL PREDICTION CENTER CAMP SPRINGS MD
105 PM EST MON MAR 01 2004

EXCESSIVE RAINFALL DISCUSSION
NWS HYDROMETEOROLOGICAL PREDICTION CENTER CAMP SPRINGS MD
833 AM EST MON MAR 01 2004

EXCESSIVE RAINFALL DISCUSSION
NWS HYDROMETEOROLOGICAL PREDICTION CENTER CAMP SPRINGS MD
224 AM EST MON MAR 01 2004

EXCESSIVE RAINFALL DISCUSSION
NWS HYDROMETEOROLOGICAL PREDICTION CENTER CAMP SPRINGS MD
1259 PM EST SUN FEB 29 2004

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