830 
ACUS01 KWNS 041951
SWODY1
SPC AC 041947

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0147 PM CST THU MAR 04 2004 VALID 042000Z - 051200Z THERE IS A HIGH RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 25 E DUA 25 NNW DAL 45 SE SPS 20 ENE SPS 15 NE FSI 15 ENE OKC 30 NE BVO 35 NNW JLN 35 NNE JLN 15 NNE UMN 25 WSW HRO 15 SW FSM 25 E DUA. THERE IS A MDT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 10 NE SEP 40 SSW SPS 35 ESE CSM 30 N CNU 20 S SZL 35 WNW CGI ARG TXK 60 W LFK 10 S AUS 50 W AUS 65 ENE JCT 10 NE SEP. THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 45 S CRP 50 S LRD ..CONT.. 60 WNW COT 20 ENE BWD 10 NE CSM 30 ENE ICT 30 N MLI 15 SE CGX 15 SE IND 30 SSW UOX 20 W 7R4. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 15 WSW FHU 35 W TUS 35 NW GBN 35 WSW PRC 20 SSE 4BL 45 SE GUC 35 NNW EHA 40 WNW CNK 40 E SUX 35 NW FRM 70 S DLH 15 SW IWD 25 WSW MQT 55 ENE ESC 30 SW APN 10 NW DTW 35 SSE MIE 40 SSW MSL 40 W HUM. ...THERE IS A HIGH RISK OF SVR TSTMS OVER PORTIONS OF NWRN TX/CNTRL AND ERN OK/EXTREME NWRN AR/SWRN MO/SERN KS... ...THERE IS A MDT RISK OF SVR TSTMS OVER PORTIONS OF CNTRL/NERN TX NEWD INTO AR... ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS FROM THE SRN PLAINS NEWD INTO THE MIDWEST... ...SIGNIFICANT SEVERE WEATHER EXPECTED THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT FROM PORTIONS OF TX/OK EWD INTO WRN AR/SWRN MO/SERN KS WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR A FEW STRONG TORNADOES AND WIDESPREAD DAMAGING WIND GUSTS... ...SRN PLAINS/LWR MS VLY NWD TO MID MS VLY/MIDWEST... ACTIVE SEVERE WEATHER DAY UNFOLDING ACROSS THE SRN PLAINS. VERY STRONG ASCENT ASSOCIATED WITH EJECTING UPPER LOW IS FORCING A SQUALL LINE THAT IS RACING ENEWD AT 60-65 KT. CURRENT EXTRAPOLATION HAS THE LINE TO THE I-35 CORRIDOR FROM KOKC-KFWD-KAUS BY 21 UTC AND INTO SERN KS-WRN AR-ERN TX THIS EVENING. SATELLITE SHOWS BINOVC IMMEDIATELY AHEAD OF THE LINE WHERE TEMPERATURES HAVE WARMED INTO THE LOWER 70S. GIVEN STEEP LAPSE RATES NOTED ON THE 18 UTC KFWD SOUNDING ATOP LOWER 60S SURFACE DEW POINTS...THE ADDED INSOLATION IS CONTRIBUTING TO MLCAPES OF 1000-1500 J/KG. THUS...THE LINE SHOULD MAINTAIN CHARACTER THROUGH THE EVENING AS IT MOVES ENEWD. OTHER TSTMS WILL LIKELY FORM IMMEDIATELY AHEAD OF THE SQUALL LINE AND REMAIN DISCRETE BEFORE BEING QUICKLY OVERTAKEN BY THE LINE. MESOANALYSIS PLACES STATIONARY FRONT FROM KLAW-KOKC-KCNU THEN EWD INTO THE LWR OH VLY. USING CURRENT STORM MOTION OF 200 DEGREES AT 60 KT...HIGHEST STORM RELATIVE HELICITY PER 18 UTC KOUN SOUNDING/ OBJECTIVE ANALYSIS EXTENDS NEWD FROM THE SURFACE LOW NEAR KSPS INTO CNTRL/SRN OK AND NCNTRL TX. DEEP LAYER SHEAR IS MORE THAN ENOUGH FOR EMBEDDED SUPERCELLS...AND GIVEN STRONG LOW LEVEL TURNING IN THE HODOGRAPHS DOWNSTREAM...LONG-LIVED TORNADIC SUPERCELLS WILL BE POSSIBLE THROUGH THE EVENING WITH THE POSSIBILITY OF A STRONG TORNADO OR TWO INVOF OF THE TRACK OF THE LOW. OTHERWISE...DAMAGING WINDS...POSSIBLY IN EXCESS OF 80 KT...WILL LIKELY CAUSE WIDESPREAD WIND DAMAGE OVER A LARGE PART OF SRN/ERN OK...CNTRL/NRN TX AND INTO THE WRN OZARKS THROUGH THE EVENING /WITHIN THE MDT/HIGH RISK AREAS/. LARGE HAIL WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH THE STRONGER STORMS AS WELL... MAINLY UNDER 2 INCHES IN DIAMETER. THE LINE OF TSTMS WILL LIKELY ADVANCE NEWD INTO PARTS OF THE MIDWEST AND MID/LWR MS VLY BY 12 UTC FRIDAY WITH THE THREAT OF DAMAGING WINDS AND ISOLD TORNADOES GRADUALLY DECREASING. FARTHER SOUTH...SRN EDGE OF STRONGEST HEIGHT FALLS WILL GRAZE S TX FROM KCOT-KVCT WHERE 18 UTC SOUNDINGS SHOW A MORE SUBSTANTIAL CAP. AS A RESULT...THE SEVERE PROBABILITY GRADIENT DECREASES RAPIDLY ACROSS S TX. ..RACY.. 03/04/2004 ...NOTICE... FOR USERS DECODING THE POINTS PARAGRAPH HEREIN...LATITUDE AND LONGITUDE POINTS FOR THE CATEGORICAL AND PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK GRAPHICS ALSO ARE LOCATED IN A SEPARATE PRODUCT UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...WUUS02 PTSDY2...AND WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL EVENTUALLY BE DISCONTINUED.


Click the links below to go to previous bulletins.

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0147 PM CST THU MAR 04 2004

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1030 AM CST THU MAR 04 2004

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0709 AM CST THU MAR 04 2004

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1158 PM CST WED MAR 03 2004

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0711 PM CST WED MAR 03 2004

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0154 PM CST WED MAR 03 2004

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1034 AM CST WED MAR 03 2004

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0646 AM CST WED MAR 03 2004

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1157 PM CST TUE MAR 02 2004

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0656 PM CST TUE MAR 02 2004

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0202 PM CST TUE MAR 02 2004

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1022 AM CST TUE MAR 02 2004

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0659 AM CST TUE MAR 02 2004

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1141 PM CST MON MAR 01 2004

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0656 PM CST MON MAR 01 2004

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK RESENT 1
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0236 PM CST MON MAR 01 2004

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0209 PM CST MON MAR 01 2004

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1011 AM CST MON MAR 01 2004

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0654 AM CST MON MAR 01 2004

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1155 PM CST SUN FEB 29 2004

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0655 PM CST SUN FEB 29 2004

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0208 PM CST SUN FEB 29 2004

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1027 AM CST SUN FEB 29 2004

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0653 AM CST SUN FEB 29 2004

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK CORR 1
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1216 AM CST SUN FEB 29 2004

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1152 PM CST SAT FEB 28 2004

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0707 PM CST SAT FEB 28 2004

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0655 PM CST SAT FEB 28 2004

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0200 PM CST SAT FEB 28 2004

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