807 
FXUS04 KWBC 041937
QPFPFD

QUANTITATIVE PRECIPITATION FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS HYDROMETEOROLOGICAL PREDICTION CENTER CAMP SPRINGS MD
236 PM EST THU MAR 04 2004

PRELIM DAY 1 AND DAY 2 QPF DISCUSSION
VALID MAR 06/0000 UTC THRU MAR 07/0000 UTC
REFERENCE AWIPS GRAPHICS UNDER...PRECIP ACCUM - 24HR

...DAY 1...

...CONCERNING THE LIFTING OUT NRN OLD MEXICO CLOSED UPPER LO.   

MODELS AGREE THAT THE AFOREMENTIONED UPPER LO WILL RAPIDLY
ACCELERATE AS IT LIFTS NEWD THRU THIS FCST PD.   THE GFS IS
SLIGHTLY
FASTER THAN THE ETA WITH THIS PROCESS WITH THE CANADIAN MODEL IN
BTWN.   THE ETA TRENDED A LITTLE FASTER THAN ITS PREVIOUS RUNS
WITH
THE GFS CLOSE TO ITS PREVIOUS FCST.   HOWEVER...A LITTLE HESITANT
ABOUT ACCEPTING THE GFS SOLUTION TOTALLY GIVEN ITS VERT VEL FIELDS
THAT SEEM TO SUGGEST SOME FEEDBACK PROBLEMS WITH ITS FCST.   THE
CANADIAN OR A BLEND OF THE ETA AND GFS SPEEDS MAY BE THE BEST WAY
TO GO FOR THE MOMENT.   

IN ANY CASE...BOTH MODEL QPFS CONTINUE TO ADVERTISE THAT HVY WAA
RAINS WILL CONTINUE ALONG AND TO THE LEFT OF THE SFC LO TRACK AS A
STG LLVL MSTR FLUX CONTINUES TO IMPINGE ON A RELATIVELY STG
BAROCLINIC ZONE.   THE ETA WRAPS MORE MSTR TO THE NORTH AND WEST
THAN THE GFS AND WILL LEAN IN THAT DIRECTION AS THE VIGOROUS
NATURE OF THE LIFTING OUT SYSTEM WILL BE AVBL TO TAP MSTR IN THE
CD
AIR FAR REMOVED FM THE LLVL BNDRY.   STG UPPER LEVEL FORCING
ASOCTD WITH THE RT ENTRANCE REGION OF THE UPPER JET WILL ALSO AID
THE LIFTING PROCESS ACROSS THE UPPER MS VLY.   MEANWHILE...THE GFS
IS MORE GENEROUS WITH BRINGING PCPN ACROSS NEW ENG THAN THE ETA. 
LEANED IN THE GFS DIRECTION GIVEN THE STG LLVL SLY FLOW THAT BOTH
MODELS GENERATE OVR THE NORTHEAST THAT WILL IMPACT THE
BAROCLINIC ZONE THERE.   

...MID/LWR MS AND TN VLYS...

BOTH THE ETA AND GFS BOTH INDC THAT UPPER LEVEL FORCING WILL BE
WKNG RAPIDLY BY LATER THIS EVNG AS THE BEST HGT FALLS LIFT NEWD
INTO THE UPPER MS VLY.  THIS SUGGESTS THAT SHWRS WITH THE CDFNT
SHOULD BE ON THE DECREASE AT THAT TIME.   THE BNDRY IS EXPECTED
MAKE VERY SLOW EWD PROGRESS OVRNGT UNDER THE PARALLEL FLOW
ALOFT.  BY TMW AFTN...A SHRTWV SWINGING THRU THE BASE OF THE CNTRL
U.S. UPPER TROF WILL AGAIN HELP TO FIRE SHWRS ACROSS PORTIONS OF
THE LWR MS VLY AS PWS MUCH IN EXCESS OF NORMAL POOLING ALONG THE
FEATURE ARE LIFTED BY THE IMPULSE.   PREFER THE ETAS PLACEMENT OVR
THE GFS WHICH APPEARS TOO AGGRESSIVE WITH LIFTING THE HVY AMTS
NEWD.

...PACIFIC NW TO THE NRN AND CNTRL ROCKIES...

ONE SHRTWV DROPPING ACROSS THE NW U.S. BY THIS EVNG WILL BE
FOLLOWED BY A MORE VIGOROUS SHRTWV MOVG TO THE COAST BY TMW
AFTN.   THE LATTER SYSTEM GENERATES A VIGOROUS LLVL ONSHORE MSTR
FETCH WITH IT THAT WILL HELP TO SUPPORT MDT TO HVY PCPN TOTALS OVR
THE PACIFIC NW.   THE FIRST AFOREMENTIONED SHRTWV WILL AMPLIFY AS
IT
DROPS SEWD ACROSS THE ROCKIES BRINGING LGT TO MDT PCPN TOTALS
TO TERRAIN FAVORED BY NWLY OROGRAPHICS.

DAY 2...

HEAVY PCPN SPREADS THROUGH THE APPALACHIANS AND MID-ATLANTIC
REGION AHEAD OF A POTENT COLD FRONT SWEEPING TOWARD THE ERN
SEABOARD.  STILL PREFER TO LEAN TOWARD THE WETTER GFS GIVEN
HIGH PW VALUES EXCEEDING 1.5 INCHES BEING DRAWN NEWD AHEAD OF
THE BNDRY AND STRONG DYNAMICS SUPPLIED BY THE VORT CENTER. 
HOWEVER...THINK THERE WILL BE MORE PCPN ALONG THE NEW ENGLAND
COAST INTO THE MARITIMES MORE IN LINE WITH THE ETA AS TROF TAKES
ON A SLIGHT NEGATIVE TILT.  

IN THE NORTHWEST...FAVORED A WETTER SOLUTION SIMILAR TO THE ETA
AS SHORTWAVE SLIDES ALONG THE CANADIAN BORDER INTO THE NRN
PLAINS BY FHR 60.  

KORTY/MAUSSER

GRAPHICS AVAILABLE ON THE WEB AT WWW.HPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV

24HR QP VT 06/00Z
 0.01 544191 532176 528169 525162 520153 512147 500138 495135 
      494133 487126 474120 469119 473115 476108 476103 476100 
      472093 469092 466093 464098 458094 451089 443089 433089 
      429084 426080 423077 423075 426077 436078 441078 444081 
      453084 453080 451073 447064 445055 445048 447043 447035 
      441035 438037 436044 435048 432049 422049 417053 412052 
      405049 392042 386040 380037 375034 372032 375030 391026 
      397021 402018 414007 419002 425997 430993 437988 443983 
      450981 456984 461990 468001 474008 482010 489023 494022 
      500020 502017 510001 514992 516983 517974 516967 515961 
      511956 504955 501954 501946 501936 498930 494928 492928 
      484926 484922 484918 499879 502869 504860 506851 507842 
      512806 514794 514783 510762 507746 503731 499717 495706 
      490694 486688 478675 472665 467655 457633 452625 449620 
      445617 438615 434617 426632 423639 421647 418666 415670 
      411674 407681 404696 402709 399726 399734 399743 400752 
      403763 402769 400772 396778 390791 382807 377818 370829 
      362839 353850 339859 332862 327864 324867 315877 311884 
      307889 300902 296912 292920 290927 289934 289940 286948 
      283956 282963 281970 284975 283981 286983 291982 297979 
      309973 313970 319968 324967 328966 336967 340969 345968 
      352967 361966 364965 368967 372967 373970 373974 372977 
      364989 356002 353004 352002 353995 354988 353981 349980 
      346982 342988 336000 334010 336021 339029 342035 351044 
      353047 353054 352058 350059 346061 347064 351067 352070 
      349072 339072 330075 327079 327088 312088 312098 312107 
      315118 318118 321116 323114 327114 334118 337122 343127 
      346127 349125 354122 355118 354115 350108 349104 349102 
      352099 356098 361094 365089 366080 365071 367068 370071 
      370077 371082 372085 378089 385093 391094 393096 397095 
      407085 418079 421077 423080 420082 418088 418099 415104 
      413102 411098 409095 407095 402098 385112 378116 374123 
      373126 372130 372140 373144 376144 377132 379129 382127 
      388124 393120 400120 402123 406125 410124 414124 417126 
      419129 419139 421144 423134 429130 433124 438120 440121 
      443125 442128 438133 434138 431148 451203 456197 458192 
      460190 471182 476183 479186 481192 478196 472201 466204 
      459205 453209 447211 444209 442211 434210 429207 426206 
      424209 423214 420218 421225 423229 421230 415228 412224 
      408224 406227 407231 408233 407236 407240 408242 414248 
      423254 455261 461263 465267 473272 478277 491291 498298 
      503302 507302 
 0.01 529243 529242 526238 525237 524235 521231 521230 520225 
      522225 524227 525227 528229 530230 533232 
 0.01 420158 421154 421150 418147 417150 415153 415157 416161 
      417162 418161 420158 420158 
 0.25 536211 536206 534200 532194 526186 521179 516172 510167 
      506167 504169 502175 503182 506188 512194 519201 524207 
      530211 536211 
 0.25 521265 521256 518251 514242 512234 509230 506225 503220 
      497209 489204 486202 483203 480204 471208 462211 455214 
      436219 433224 432228 433233 432236 432241 436243 441245 
      453249 464253 469256 475260 482267 488274 496282 500286 
      506290 513290 
 0.25 495763 493752 491744 487734 483725 471703 464691 460682 
      456674 451671 447671 444673 442677 439680 433685 429692 
      427698 425709 424721 422747 420760 420772 425785 425790 
      423796 417805 412814 396860 390868 387872 380877 378876 
      377874 379869 381864 382858 386846 386842 384837 381837 
      378840 375843 367852 361859 356863 352867 332876 325884 
      318893 312901 307909 303918 300928 298938 298950 307953 
      311957 317953 327948 335945 341945 344949 346954 352956 
      361956 370953 382947 388946 392947 395950 396958 395964 
      393968 385976 380986 376997 374002 374006 376008 383009 
      387008 390005 398000 407995 415988 432973 447958 453952 
      461941 468931 473921 480892 487867 490856 492841 494823 
      494811 495797 496784 495771 495763 
 0.25 479159 476157 474154 473154 470152 468149 465147 462147 
      461148 459152 461156 462156 464158 467161 468162 470163 
      472163 475163 479160 479159 
 0.25 460182 461177 459177 458177 456178 455180 456184 459182 
      460182 
 0.50 514281 517272 517263 514252 510241 508235 504229 499219 
      497215 494211 483207 473209 467213 458215 449219 445220 
      441223 459228 455232 450234 447237 448240 451242 456244 
      468248 476254 484261 491271 498279 501282 506285 511284 
      514281 
 0.50 479764 476750 471737 467728 462720 459718 456712 454708 
      451708 446714 446722 443732 441736 437739 434742 433746 
      432756 434767 436780 436789 434796 430804 426811 417824 
      414833 412841 411850 408860 405865 399874 391885 387892 
      384900 382910 379915 374921 368927 360938 355945 355949 
      357949 367947 376943 382938 387934 392932 396933 402936 
      404939 406945 405954 403962 400971 394977 389981 385987 
      383996 384000 389998 401989 407986 413980 418977 424970 
      429965 435958 446947 455933 463919 467910 470901 473890 
      475880 478862 480851 483843 484834 485823 484809 483799 
      480779 480768 479764 
 0.50 493239 491235 490234 488231 486228 485228 483226 480225 
      478225 480228 480231 482234 483236 484237 487238 490239 
      493240 493239 
 0.50 475229 476225 475224 472223 471223 468226 468227 468230 
      471230 474229 475229 
 0.50 374857 369858 364860 356868 346874 339877 332881 325888 
      318897 312907 308917 306922 306929 303940 318943 322944 
      325942 329940 339934 353929 360922 363916 362912 357908 
      352906 349905 348904 351900 358892 365882 371870 374863 
      374857 
 1.00 512275 513266 511255 510250 508245 504239 500232 497229 
      497234 501242 504248 506258 505263 502262 499260 496257 
      492248 490243 486241 484243 480240 479236 475233 472236 
      472239 474242 477246 482250 487256 497270 502276 506279 
      509279 512275 
 1.00 483218 484214 482212 479212 478212 479216 479217 481218 
      483218 
 1.00 451820 451815 449812 444812 439817 436823 434829 433835 
      431842 427844 423849 419859 415872 410882 408889 410896 
      411910 414923 416931 419935 422940 426943 433942 437939 
      441934 442928 443921 443913 451912 453906 453902 451898 
      448893 446884 448869 447854 446846 445841 445838 448826 
      451820 
 1.00 365871 362870 360871 356874 347880 336884 329890 324895 
      319903 315911 321908 328902 336898 347893 354887 360880 
      363876 365871 
 1.50 437869 437864 432863 429864 425873 423878 422887 422899 
      422905 426906 428897 430888 432879 434872 437869  

24HR QP VT 07/00Z
 0.01 522674 524683 525698 525720 520752 515782 509817 503841 
      498857 494872 491884 486895 481905 469929 463941 453949 
      444955 434960 429963 423964 410967 399944 395941 389938 
      383938 377936 375931 373929 371930 366938 356956 351965 
      347970 343975 337973 332969 337960 341952 346941 353925 
      354918 354913 355907 354902 352900 349901 344903 333911 
      324915 319919 315921 311924 306926 299928 287928 280929 
      276927 276923 282909 287898 290881 286866 290851 298836 
      303827 302816 308798 313788 324769 330761 336752 341745 
      348734 361716 375693 387675 402656 408646 414634 420623 
      422613 427609 428609 430607 437601 450589 460581 472576 
      481581 482582 
 0.01 560026 561012 562005 560998 559995 557992 552986 549981 
      545976 536969 533968 530966 524963 513960 499959 489961 
      476964 471968 468974 469979 471982 474988 481998 486016 
      493023 511040 522049 527053 532055 536058 540058 544059 
      549057 552052 555044 558036 560026 
 0.01 544185 539177 533169 526160 520153 507141 495131 489125 
      481116 479112 477106 476100 473095 473091 470087 467086 
      464089 459087 455085 453082 450074 445068 441066 435068 
      429071 425065 426059 423057 420062 411054 409052 404051 
      396053 389059 384059 381063 378065 375065 371064 369065 
      375070 375076 373080 378082 383087 387087 390086 393087 
      397091 401086 404083 407083 411084 414087 413090 411089 
      406089 403097 400103 397100 394099 393102 393105 392107 
      389109 380112 375120 374125 376130 388124 394123 401129 
      409133 411137 410141 404144 400145 397147 395151 394155 
      395159 398162 404167 407171 408176 420189 420193 416194 
      411195 409197 407202 404203 399202 397200 394198 392199 
      392204 394209 398218 398222 396226 394232 394239 395242 
      399245 404249 413251 431256 442258 453262 462265 472270 
      479275 486281 497292 507299 528244 528243 526239 517225 
      508214 507210 513211 524218 528222 533225 534225 
 0.01 523077 525071 524065 520061 515058 508055 501055 494057 
      482062 473068 471072 470075 471081 474089 478094 486103 
      492107 499107 505104 509100 517089 523077 
 0.01 461192 456198 456203 463202 471198 479195 485193 487191 
      482185 475183 471182 467185 464188 461192 
 0.01 436882 437877 436873 434871 431872 428873 426873 425873 
      422873 421875 422879 424880 425881 427884 428885 431886 
      434885 436882 
 0.01 447080 444078 441079 439080 441083 444084 447081 447080 
 0.01 444040 444039 441039 441040 444040 444040 
 0.01 407884 407877 405876 400877 397879 393884 390891 387898 
      384905 381911 380915 385916 388915 396910 400905 403897 
      405891 407884 
 0.01 418099 418095 415095 415099 418099 418099 
 0.25 506650 502635 498628 494623 487615 478606 471603 464602 
      456604 448608 438614 434620 429626 423637 419647 404682 
      396702 389722 382739 375756 366773 362794 359800 353809 
      344822 340830 334838 324855 318869 312885 309893 307897 
      307902 311904 315904 324900 338890 344885 353880 361876 
      371871 379866 384861 388857 396844 405825 413809 418798 
      419786 422775 425767 429758 433751 440748 451748 455750 
      458753 461758 464766 468780 471788 474792 480796 485794 
      490792 493788 496784 498778 500771 502758 505745 508733 
      510721 511710 511699 511685 509669 506650 
 0.25 523261 519249 514238 509228 504220 496210 489204 483202 
      477203 471206 461211 453214 445216 440216 437218 432220 
      430224 435231 438234 440240 442242 445243 450244 463248 
      473253 482260 489268 496277 503285 508289 512289 
 0.25 533200 530188 525177 520169 514162 509156 500150 494144 
      489137 486134 482132 473127 465123 458118 456108 450100 
      447101 442099 435096 431095 431102 428105 423107 423111 
      425115 430116 439114 444117 446121 449129 445137 443139 
      438140 436142 435149 438157 443166 448171 450176 454176 
      452168 453162 455155 459159 465167 469169 474168 479169 
      483172 486174 491176 497177 505183 511189 516194 522199 
      529203 533200 
 0.50 499678 496665 490651 484638 481631 478628 472622 467618 
      460616 453617 449620 445624 437634 431643 427652 421667 
      413682 398721 381763 375781 370795 361809 341836 335846 
      331854 330859 327866 323871 324876 320885 319892 322895 
      331889 333887 339883 346878 359870 368863 375857 386846 
      392834 400818 408800 410793 412784 416767 426730 429723 
      433716 445702 451700 460701 466702 471704 474707 478717 
      480723 482729 488728 490726 494720 498711 499704 500698 
      500685 499678 
 0.50 516272 517267 518261 515253 509240 503227 496217 485207 
      478206 474208 463215 453218 456224 459226 462225 472223 
      487227 491230 494235 498251 495249 492244 488236 482232 
      478227 473228 470229 468233 471241 476247 480249 485250 
      488255 495267 503279 506280 508279 512275 516272 
 0.50 522187 521183 521182 518178 517176 516174 513171 510167 
      508165 505163 502162 501163 501168 503173 504174 507177 
      508179 509180 512183 514185 515186 517189 520190 522187 
 0.50 471160 476161 479161 481160 475156 472152 469148 465144 
      461142 458144 461146 463150 466153 467156 469158 471160 
 1.00 419700 417698 415700 413702 412705 413708 415708 417706 
      418705 419702 419700 
 1.00 404773 402766 398765 394767 388772 384779 379790 373800 
      368810 362819 355827 348835 344843 340854 342868 348870 
      355866 363859 371851 377843 389824 395814 398804 402792 
      404781 404773 
 1.50 396798 395791 392786 388788 384791 379798 375804 366819 
      356831 352836 350839 350845 351848 350854 349862 349863 
      354862 359857 371844 375837 379829 385823 388817 393807 
      395799 396798 
 2.00 390800 390796 386796 381801 376809 369822 363829 359833 
      359838 358844 356848 357852 360851 363849 368844 372837 
      373831 375826 380821 384817 387812 390800  

$$


Click the links below to go to previous bulletins.

QUANTITATIVE PRECIPITATION FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS HYDROMETEOROLOGICAL PREDICTION CENTER CAMP SPRINGS MD
236 PM EST THU MAR 04 2004

QUANTITATIVE PRECIPITATION FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS HYDROMETEOROLOGICAL PREDICTION CENTER CAMP SPRINGS MD
510 AM EST THU MAR 04 2004

QUANTITATIVE PRECIPITATION FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS HYDROMETEOROLOGICAL PREDICTION CENTER CAMP SPRINGS MD
200 AM EST THU MAR 04 2004

QUANTITATIVE PRECIPITATION FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS HYDROMETEOROLOGICAL PREDICTION CENTER CAMP SPRINGS MD
156 AM EST THU MAR 04 2004

QUANTITATIVE PRECIPITATION FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS HYDROMETEOROLOGICAL PREDICTION CENTER CAMP SPRINGS MD
249 PM EST WED MAR 03 2004

QUANTITATIVE PRECIPITATION FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS HYDROMETEOROLOGICAL PREDICTION CENTER CAMP SPRINGS MD
525 AM EST WED MAR 03 2004

QUANTITATIVE PRECIPITATION FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS HYDROMETEOROLOGICAL PREDICTION CENTER CAMP SPRINGS MD
238 AM EST WED MAR 03 2004

QUANTITATIVE PRECIPITATION FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS HYDROMETEOROLOGICAL PREDICTION CENTER CAMP SPRINGS MD
223 AM EST WED MAR 03 2004

QUANTITATIVE PRECIPITATION FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS HYDROMETEOROLOGICAL PREDICTION CENTER CAMP SPRINGS MD
521 PM EST TUE MAR 02 2004

QUANTITATIVE PRECIPITATION FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS HYDROMETEOROLOGICAL PREDICTION CENTER CAMP SPRINGS MD
204 PM EST TUE MAR 02 2004

QUANTITATIVE PRECIPITATION FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS HYDROMETEOROLOGICAL PREDICTION CENTER CAMP SPRINGS MD
201 PM EST TUE MAR 02 2004

QUANTITATIVE PRECIPITATION FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS HYDROMETEOROLOGICAL PREDICTION CENTER CAMP SPRINGS MD
125 PM EST TUE MAR 02 2004

QUANTITATIVE PRECIPITATION FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS HYDROMETEOROLOGICAL PREDICTION CENTER CAMP SPRINGS MD
521 AM EST TUE MAR 02 2004

QUANTITATIVE PRECIPITATION FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS HYDROMETEOROLOGICAL PREDICTION CENTER CAMP SPRINGS MD
200 AM EST TUE MAR 02 2004

QUANTITATIVE PRECIPITATION FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS HYDROMETEOROLOGICAL PREDICTION CENTER CAMP SPRINGS MD
135 AM EST TUE MAR 02 2004

QUANTITATIVE PRECIPITATION FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS HYDROMETEOROLOGICAL PREDICTION CENTER CAMP SPRINGS MD
514 PM EST MON MAR 01 2004

QUANTITATIVE PRECIPITATION FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS HYDROMETEOROLOGICAL PREDICTION CENTER CAMP SPRINGS MD
134 PM EST MON MAR 01 2004

QUANTITATIVE PRECIPITATION FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS HYDROMETEOROLOGICAL PREDICTION CENTER CAMP SPRINGS MD
545 AM EST MON MAR 01 2004

QUANTITATIVE PRECIPITATION FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS HYDROMETEOROLOGICAL PREDICTION CENTER CAMP SPRINGS MD
219 AM EST MON MAR 01 2004

QUANTITATIVE PRECIPITATION FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS HYDROMETEOROLOGICAL PREDICTION CENTER CAMP SPRINGS MD
216 AM EST MON MAR 01 2004

QUANTITATIVE PRECIPITATION FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS HYDROMETEOROLOGICAL PREDICTION CENTER CAMP SPRINGS MD
522 PM EST SUN FEB 29 2004

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