565 
FXUS04 KWBC 042210
QPFPFD

QUANTITATIVE PRECIPITATION FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS HYDROMETEOROLOGICAL PREDICTION CENTER CAMP SPRINGS MD
509 PM EST THU MAR 04 2004

FINAL DAY 1...DAY 2 AND DAY 3 QPF DISCUSSION
VALID MAR 06/0000 UTC THRU MAR 08/0000 UTC
REFERENCE AWIPS GRAPHICS UNDER...PRECIP ACCUM - 24HR

...DAY 1...

UPDATE BASED ON 06Z MODEL DATA AND SATELLITE IMAGERY.

THE BIGGEST CHANGE TO THE PRELIM DAY 1 WAS MADE ACROSS MO AND
WRN AR WHERE PCPN WAS BEEFED UP BASED ON THE IMPRESSIVE BND OF
CONVECTION THAT IS MARCHING EWD TOWARDS THE AREA.  EVENTUALLY
THE BND WILL WEAKEN BUT IT LOOKS LIKE IT SHOULD LAST AT LEAST THRU
THE 1ST PERIOD.  REALLY DID NOT KNOW WHAT TO DO OVER THE WHITE
MTNS.  BOTH THE GFS AND ETA PREDICT DECENT PCPN EVEN AS ANOTHER
SHORTWAVE DROPS SWD ACROSS THE INTERMTN REGION.  THE GEM MODEL
ALSO PREDICTS .25 INCH OR GREATER AMTS ACROSS THESE MTNS.  BELIEVE
THAT THE ETA AND GFS ARE OVERDOING THE PCPN SOMEWHAT...STILL
DECIDED TO BEEF UP AMOUNTS SLIGHTLY COMPARED TO THE PRELIM DAY 1
SINCE THE CONSENSUS OF THE MODELS ARGUE FOR HVIER AMTS.  ALSO
BEEFED UP THE PCPN SLIGHTLY OVER THE MTNS OF UT AS THE SHORTWAVE
DIGS ACROSS THE REGION.  HOWEVER....EXPECT THE PCPN TO BE LIGHT.  

...CONCERNING THE LIFTING OUT NRN OLD MEXICO CLOSED UPPER LO.   

MODELS AGREE THAT THE AFOREMENTIONED UPPER LO WILL RAPIDLY
ACCELERATE AS IT LIFTS NEWD THRU THIS FCST PD.   THE GFS IS
SLIGHTLY
FASTER THAN THE ETA WITH THIS PROCESS WITH THE CANADIAN MODEL IN
BTWN.   THE ETA TRENDED A LITTLE FASTER THAN ITS PREVIOUS RUNS
WITH
THE GFS CLOSE TO ITS PREVIOUS FCST.   HOWEVER...A LITTLE HESITANT
ABOUT ACCEPTING THE GFS SOLUTION TOTALLY GIVEN ITS VERT VEL FIELDS
THAT SEEM TO SUGGEST SOME FEEDBACK PROBLEMS WITH ITS FCST.   THE
CANADIAN OR A BLEND OF THE ETA AND GFS SPEEDS MAY BE THE BEST WAY
TO GO FOR THE MOMENT.   

IN ANY CASE...BOTH MODEL QPFS CONTINUE TO ADVERTISE THAT HVY WAA
RAINS WILL CONTINUE ALONG AND TO THE LEFT OF THE SFC LO TRACK AS A
STG LLVL MSTR FLUX CONTINUES TO IMPINGE ON A RELATIVELY STG
BAROCLINIC ZONE.   THE ETA WRAPS MORE MSTR TO THE NORTH AND WEST
THAN THE GFS AND WILL LEAN IN THAT DIRECTION AS THE VIGOROUS
NATURE OF THE LIFTING OUT SYSTEM WILL BE AVBL TO TAP MSTR IN THE
CD
AIR FAR REMOVED FM THE LLVL BNDRY.   STG UPPER LEVEL FORCING
ASOCTD WITH THE RT ENTRANCE REGION OF THE UPPER JET WILL ALSO AID
THE LIFTING PROCESS ACROSS THE UPPER MS VLY.   MEANWHILE...THE GFS
IS MORE GENEROUS WITH BRINGING PCPN ACROSS NEW ENG THAN THE ETA. 
LEANED IN THE GFS DIRECTION GIVEN THE STG LLVL SLY FLOW THAT BOTH
MODELS GENERATE OVR THE NORTHEAST THAT WILL IMPACT THE
BAROCLINIC ZONE THERE.   

...MID/LWR MS AND TN VLYS...

BOTH THE ETA AND GFS BOTH INDC THAT UPPER LEVEL FORCING WILL BE
WKNG RAPIDLY BY LATER THIS EVNG AS THE BEST HGT FALLS LIFT NEWD
INTO THE UPPER MS VLY.  THIS SUGGESTS THAT SHWRS WITH THE CDFNT
SHOULD BE ON THE DECREASE AT THAT TIME.   THE BNDRY IS EXPECTED
MAKE VERY SLOW EWD PROGRESS OVRNGT UNDER THE PARALLEL FLOW
ALOFT.  BY TMW AFTN...A SHRTWV SWINGING THRU THE BASE OF THE CNTRL
U.S. UPPER TROF WILL AGAIN HELP TO FIRE SHWRS ACROSS PORTIONS OF
THE LWR MS VLY AS PWS MUCH IN EXCESS OF NORMAL POOLING ALONG THE
FEATURE ARE LIFTED BY THE IMPULSE.   PREFER THE ETAS PLACEMENT OVR
THE GFS WHICH APPEARS TOO AGGRESSIVE WITH LIFTING THE HVY AMTS
NEWD.

...PACIFIC NW TO THE NRN AND CNTRL ROCKIES...

ONE SHRTWV DROPPING ACROSS THE NW U.S. BY THIS EVNG WILL BE
FOLLOWED BY A MORE VIGOROUS SHRTWV MOVG TO THE COAST BY TMW
AFTN.   THE LATTER SYSTEM GENERATES A VIGOROUS LLVL ONSHORE MSTR
FETCH WITH IT THAT WILL HELP TO SUPPORT MDT TO HVY PCPN TOTALS OVR
THE PACIFIC NW.   THE FIRST AFOREMENTIONED SHRTWV WILL AMPLIFY AS
IT
DROPS SEWD ACROSS THE ROCKIES BRINGING LGT TO MDT PCPN TOTALS
TO TERRAIN FAVORED BY NWLY OROGRAPHICS.

DAY 2...

HEAVY PCPN SPREADS THROUGH THE APPALACHIANS AND MID-ATLANTIC
REGION AHEAD OF A POTENT COLD FRONT SWEEPING TOWARD THE ERN
SEABOARD.  STILL PREFER TO LEAN TOWARD THE WETTER GFS GIVEN
HIGH PW VALUES EXCEEDING 1.5 INCHES BEING DRAWN NEWD AHEAD OF
THE BNDRY AND STRONG DYNAMICS SUPPLIED BY THE VORT CENTER. 
HOWEVER...THINK THERE WILL BE MORE PCPN ALONG THE NEW ENGLAND
COAST INTO THE MARITIMES MORE IN LINE WITH THE ETA AS TROF TAKES
ON A SLIGHT NEGATIVE TILT.  

IN THE NORTHWEST...FAVORED A WETTER SOLUTION SIMILAR TO THE ETA
AS SHORTWAVE SLIDES ALONG THE CANADIAN BORDER INTO THE NRN
PLAINS BY FHR 60.  

DAY 3...

NOT MUCH IN THE WAY OF LARGE DIFFERENCES IN MODEL QPF THIS
PERIOD.

OVER THE NORTHEAST...USED A MODEL BLEND WHICH STILL MANAGES TO
PUT MUCH OF ERN ME IN .25 TO .50 INCH WHICH WILL BE IN THE FORM OF
SNOW AWAY FROM THE COAST.  EXPECT THE BULK OF THE PCPN TO FALL
OVER THE MARITIMES.

MODEL QPF ALSO REMARKABLY SIMILAR WITH THE SHORTWAVE
SWEEPING EWD FROM THE NRN PLAINS INTO THE OH VALLEY.  EXPECT THE
MAX OF .25 INCH LIQUID EQUIVALENT FROM CNTRL WI INTO SRN MI...NERN
IN AND NWRN OH.

HEAVY PCPN LIKELY ALONG THE WA/OR COAST WITH STRONG ONSHORE
FLOW EXPECTED...AS WELL AS A PRETTY HEFTY SECONDARY MAX OVER
THE NRN ROCKIES.

KORTY 
      434885 435884 437880 
 0.01 447080 446079 444078 441079 439080 441083 445084 447082 
      447080 
 0.01 444040 444039 441039 441040 444040 444040 
 0.01 407884 408880 407877 405876 400877 397879 393884 390891 
      387898 384905 381911 380915 385916 388915 396910 400905 
      403897 405891 407884 
 0.01 418099 418095 415095 415099 418099 418099 
 0.25 506650 503640 500631 496625 493621 486613 478606 471603 
      464602 457604 448608 441612 436617 432622 428628 423637 
      419646 404682 396703 389722 382740 375756 370765 366774 
      364786 362793 358800 353809 344822 333839 324854 318869 
      312885 308895 306899 308903 313904 317903 323900 336891 
      343885 353880 362875 374869 381864 388857 393850 397842 
      405825 415805 418795 419786 422775 424769 429759 433751 
      439748 444747 453748 456750 460757 462759 464766 468781 
      471788 474792 480796 484795 490792 494787 497781 500769 
      502757 505745 508735 509724 511710 511699 511683 509669 
      506650 
 0.25 523261 519249 514238 509228 504220 496210 489204 482202 
      477203 471206 461210 445216 432220 431226 437233 442242 
      449245 459246 463248 473253 482260 489268 496277 503285 
      508289 512289 
 0.25 533200 529187 525177 520169 514162 508155 500150 494144 
      489137 486134 480131 474127 466124 458118 457113 457109 
      455106 450100 447101 442099 435096 432095 430096 431104 
      423107 423111 425114 430116 435114 441115 444117 446121 
      449129 445137 442139 436140 435149 438157 443166 448172 
      451176 454176 452170 452162 455155 460160 465167 470169 
      474168 479169 483172 486175 492176 497177 504182 511189 
      517195 522199 529203 533200 
 0.50 499678 498669 495661 489647 483635 478628 473622 466618 
      460616 453617 447621 443626 437635 431645 427652 421667 
      413682 387747 380765 375781 369795 361809 357816 351822 
      345829 341835 334848 331854 329862 327866 324870 324873 
      323878 319886 320893 323894 327892 332888 339883 346878 
      361868 375857 386845 392834 401815 408800 411791 412784 
      416767 421747 426730 429722 434716 445702 449700 454700 
      461701 469702 474707 478717 480723 483729 488728 491726 
      494720 498709 500698 500685 499678 
 0.50 516272 517265 518259 515253 509240 503227 496217 490211 
      485207 478206 474208 463215 454218 456225 460226 465223 
      472223 487227 491231 494235 498251 494249 492244 489237 
      484234 482232 478227 473228 470230 468235 471241 476246 
      480249 485250 488255 495267 503279 506280 509279 512275 
      516272 
 0.50 522187 521183 521182 518178 517176 516174 513171 510167 
      508165 505163 502162 501163 501168 503173 504174 507177 
      508179 509180 512183 514185 515186 517189 520190 522187 
 0.50 463150 466156 470160 473160 478161 480159 476156 474154 
      471151 468147 464144 461142 459141 458145 461146 463150 
 1.00 419700 417698 414700 413703 412704 413708 415708 417706 
      418705 419702 419700 
 1.00 404773 403768 401765 395767 389772 385779 379790 373800 
      368810 362818 355827 348835 344843 340854 340858 342861 
      342868 349869 355866 363859 371851 377843 389824 395814 
      398804 402792 404781 404773 
 1.50 396798 395790 392786 388788 384791 379798 375804 366819 
      357829 349840 351848 348858 349864 357860 366849 371844 
      375837 379829 385823 388817 393807 395799 396798 
 2.00 390800 389796 386796 381801 374811 371817 364826 359834 
      357843 356848 356853 359852 364847 371837 375828 379822 
      384817 387812 390800  

24HR QP VT 08/00Z
 0.01 519665 517679 515686 512694 508704 505713 502722 498731 
      492740 487748 482753 468761 454765 446766 441769 434774 
      430780 428785 428789 431800 437823 442840 444846 448853 
      453860 458865 464869 470872 480874 492878 499880 504883 
      510886 526897 532916 537933 546961 538008 531025 524044 
      507048 497048 493056 493065 493072 491082 489088 486095 
      482100 478102 476105 477110 480113 487121 507138 513144 
      519151 528163 531167 536171 545180 506303 488290 479281 
      476278 470273 463270 455267 442261 431255 426250 424242 
      425230 423219 423215 425211 427206 428202 428198 425194 
      424189 424184 426179 426174 420171 417165 417159 417154 
      418149 419144 420134 422127 425122 421113 419107 420098 
      421088 422084 424082 428082 432085 439086 444087 448086 
      453084 456077 453072 451068 450062 449056 448049 450042 
      453036 453029 455021 456001 453993 449989 441978 436967 
      434959 432955 429952 424951 410955 401959 392964 388966 
      385966 381962 375950 369947 366944 364940 363937 363929 
      364920 364912 362903 361896 360890 359884 355879 352874 
      349865 348856 347848 344841 343837 344832 349816 350810 
      350803 348790 348784 350778 353773 356767 365759 376750 
      387746 395744 399744 403745 408749 412754 419765 421757 
      423747 429728 436715 439707 436703 430708 422718 416722 
      413722 410720 408716 408709 407703 407695 410680 415662 
      423638 425632 428625 433613 441601 446595 451591 459588 
      467587 476586 480587 484586 
 0.25 507644 506637 503628 499620 494613 488606 481601 476600 
      472599 467602 461606 453616 450623 448628 445637 444650 
      444660 445675 447686 454694 460700 465703 471702 478701 
      484699 489695 495687 501674 505663 507655 507649 507644 
 0.25 539203 535191 529179 522169 513161 504155 498150 494144 
      489137 484133 478129 472130 466129 460127 455126 452129 
      449134 442145 441154 444161 446166 453176 459178 462176 
      466174 472174 483178 495182 502186 505189 514196 522207 
      526210 530214 535215 538215 
 0.25 526257 522247 517238 512230 506220 496204 489202 480203 
      474205 465207 450211 443215 437222 436227 435234 434242 
      437246 444250 455254 464258 474264 487274 496281 503287 
      511291 
 0.25 451914 452908 450901 444891 440882 437871 434858 430848 
      423834 418827 412822 409821 404822 399826 396829 395833 
      394838 399851 403858 406860 414866 422876 431892 441915 
      448918 451914 
 0.50 498631 495624 488616 483613 476611 470614 464618 460623 
      457633 454651 452669 453676 456680 459682 464683 469682 
      473680 478677 483671 489663 498656 500648 500642 499635 
      498631 
 0.50 521269 520258 516246 511237 507229 497213 493211 489211 
      479211 464214 457217 449221 444226 441232 440239 445245 
      456249 465252 475258 482263 490271 496277 504283 510284 
      516281 
 0.50 514188 523193 527193 526186 519176 516172 514171 513170 
      510168 507169 507170 505174 505178 506180 509184 512187 
      514188 
 0.50 483160 482151 480146 477144 471142 465142 462144 459148 
      458151 458156 461160 464162 469164 475165 479164 483160 
 1.00 479632 474632 470637 468647 469655 473656 480650 484646 
      486641 484634 479632 
 1.00 485256 493264 501267 507266 509258 506244 502238 498232 
      495230 492230 488231 480229 473228 468228 463230 458232 
      455233 453235 451239 458242 465245 471249 477252 482255 
      485256 
 1.50 476237 473239 473243 476248 482248 485244 482240 479238 
      476237  

$$


Click the links below to go to previous bulletins.

QUANTITATIVE PRECIPITATION FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS HYDROMETEOROLOGICAL PREDICTION CENTER CAMP SPRINGS MD
509 PM EST THU MAR 04 2004

QUANTITATIVE PRECIPITATION FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS HYDROMETEOROLOGICAL PREDICTION CENTER CAMP SPRINGS MD
236 PM EST THU MAR 04 2004

QUANTITATIVE PRECIPITATION FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS HYDROMETEOROLOGICAL PREDICTION CENTER CAMP SPRINGS MD
510 AM EST THU MAR 04 2004

QUANTITATIVE PRECIPITATION FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS HYDROMETEOROLOGICAL PREDICTION CENTER CAMP SPRINGS MD
200 AM EST THU MAR 04 2004

QUANTITATIVE PRECIPITATION FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS HYDROMETEOROLOGICAL PREDICTION CENTER CAMP SPRINGS MD
156 AM EST THU MAR 04 2004

QUANTITATIVE PRECIPITATION FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS HYDROMETEOROLOGICAL PREDICTION CENTER CAMP SPRINGS MD
249 PM EST WED MAR 03 2004

QUANTITATIVE PRECIPITATION FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS HYDROMETEOROLOGICAL PREDICTION CENTER CAMP SPRINGS MD
525 AM EST WED MAR 03 2004

QUANTITATIVE PRECIPITATION FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS HYDROMETEOROLOGICAL PREDICTION CENTER CAMP SPRINGS MD
238 AM EST WED MAR 03 2004

QUANTITATIVE PRECIPITATION FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS HYDROMETEOROLOGICAL PREDICTION CENTER CAMP SPRINGS MD
223 AM EST WED MAR 03 2004

QUANTITATIVE PRECIPITATION FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS HYDROMETEOROLOGICAL PREDICTION CENTER CAMP SPRINGS MD
521 PM EST TUE MAR 02 2004

QUANTITATIVE PRECIPITATION FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS HYDROMETEOROLOGICAL PREDICTION CENTER CAMP SPRINGS MD
204 PM EST TUE MAR 02 2004

QUANTITATIVE PRECIPITATION FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS HYDROMETEOROLOGICAL PREDICTION CENTER CAMP SPRINGS MD
201 PM EST TUE MAR 02 2004

QUANTITATIVE PRECIPITATION FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS HYDROMETEOROLOGICAL PREDICTION CENTER CAMP SPRINGS MD
125 PM EST TUE MAR 02 2004

QUANTITATIVE PRECIPITATION FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS HYDROMETEOROLOGICAL PREDICTION CENTER CAMP SPRINGS MD
521 AM EST TUE MAR 02 2004

QUANTITATIVE PRECIPITATION FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS HYDROMETEOROLOGICAL PREDICTION CENTER CAMP SPRINGS MD
200 AM EST TUE MAR 02 2004

QUANTITATIVE PRECIPITATION FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS HYDROMETEOROLOGICAL PREDICTION CENTER CAMP SPRINGS MD
135 AM EST TUE MAR 02 2004

QUANTITATIVE PRECIPITATION FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS HYDROMETEOROLOGICAL PREDICTION CENTER CAMP SPRINGS MD
514 PM EST MON MAR 01 2004

QUANTITATIVE PRECIPITATION FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS HYDROMETEOROLOGICAL PREDICTION CENTER CAMP SPRINGS MD
134 PM EST MON MAR 01 2004

QUANTITATIVE PRECIPITATION FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS HYDROMETEOROLOGICAL PREDICTION CENTER CAMP SPRINGS MD
545 AM EST MON MAR 01 2004

QUANTITATIVE PRECIPITATION FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS HYDROMETEOROLOGICAL PREDICTION CENTER CAMP SPRINGS MD
219 AM EST MON MAR 01 2004

QUANTITATIVE PRECIPITATION FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS HYDROMETEOROLOGICAL PREDICTION CENTER CAMP SPRINGS MD
216 AM EST MON MAR 01 2004

QUANTITATIVE PRECIPITATION FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS HYDROMETEOROLOGICAL PREDICTION CENTER CAMP SPRINGS MD
522 PM EST SUN FEB 29 2004

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