467
FOUS30 KWBC 050156
QPFERD
EXCESSIVE RAINFALL DISCUSSION
NWS HYDROMETEOROLOGICAL PREDICTION CENTER CAMP SPRINGS MD
855 PM EST THU MAR 04 2004
...VALID 03Z FRI MAR 05 2004 - 00Z SAT MAR 06 2004...
...REFERENCE AWIPS GRAPHIC UNDER...DAY 1 EXCESSIVE RAINFALL...
...UPPER MIDWEST...
THE THINKING HAS CHANGED FM THE PREVIOUS DISCUSSION OVER THE
UPPER MIDWEST. A STRONG SHORTWAVE LIFTING NEWD FM THE
SOUTHWEST HELP INDUCE STRONG CYCLOGENESIS WITH THE LOW RAPIDLY
SHIFTING NEWD TO THE UPPER MIDWEST BY TMW MORNING. STRONG
LIFTING ALONG THE WARM FRONT TO THE NORTH AND EAST OF THE LOW
SHOULD HELP PRODUCE A PD OF MDT TO HVY RAINFALL WITH 1 TO 2 INCH
RAINFALL POSSIBLE ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE NRN IL....SRN WI INTO
LOWER MI IN A 3 TO 6 HR PERIOD. THE STRONG LIFTING IS ALSO
SUPPORTED
BY A DVLPNG COUPLED JET STRUCTURE. THE MODELS ARE INDCTG THAT
THE UPPER LO WILL BE ACCELERATING RAPIDLY NEWD BY THIS EVNG.
LOWER MS VALLEY....
AM BECOMING INCREASINGLY CONCERNED ABOUT THE POTENTIAL FOR HVY
RAINFALL FM LA NEWD ACROSS MS INTO TN LATE IN THE PERIOD. THE SFC
LOW WILL LIFT INTO THE GREAT LAKES REGION AND THE SRN END OF THE
COLD FRONT WILL LOSE ITS PUSH AS IT BECOMES PARALLEL TO THE UPPER
FLOW. BOTH MODELS DUMP ADDITIONAL ENERGY INTO THE MEAN TROUGH
POSITION WHICH WILL HELP A MID LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE NM. THIS
TROUGH IS FCST TO START MOVING EWD ACROSS TX TM AND SHOULD GET
CLOSE ENOUGH TO THE AREA OF LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE TO AID IN
DEVELOPMENT OF CONVECTION LATE TMW. PWS ARE EXPECTED TO BE AOA
1.75 ACROSS THIS REGION ARGUING FOR THE POTENTIAL FOR HVY RAINFALL
WHILE THE ALIGNMENT OF THE FRONT PROMOTES TRAINING OF CELLS.
WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED TO SEE ISOLD 2 OR 3 INCH RAINFALL ACROSS
THIS REGION BUT DID NOT HAVE ENOUGH CONFIDENCE TO INTRODUCE AN
OUTLOOK AREA THIS EARLY IN THE GAME.
JUNKER
GRAPHICS AVAILABLE ON THE WEB AT WWW.HPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV
$$
Click the links below to go to previous bulletins.
EXCESSIVE RAINFALL DISCUSSION
NWS HYDROMETEOROLOGICAL PREDICTION CENTER CAMP SPRINGS MD
855 PM EST THU MAR 04 2004
EXCESSIVE RAINFALL DISCUSSION
NWS HYDROMETEOROLOGICAL PREDICTION CENTER CAMP SPRINGS MD
109 PM EST THU MAR 04 2004
EXCESSIVE RAINFALL DISCUSSION
NWS HYDROMETEOROLOGICAL PREDICTION CENTER CAMP SPRINGS MD
908 AM EST THU MAR 04 2004
EXCESSIVE RAINFALL DISCUSSION
NWS HYDROMETEOROLOGICAL PREDICTION CENTER CAMP SPRINGS MD
218 AM EST THU MAR 04 2004
EXCESSIVE RAINFALL DISCUSSION
NWS HYDROMETEOROLOGICAL PREDICTION CENTER CAMP SPRINGS MD
900 PM EST WED MAR 03 2004
EXCESSIVE RAINFALL DISCUSSION
NWS HYDROMETEOROLOGICAL PREDICTION CENTER CAMP SPRINGS MD
122 PM EST WED MAR 03 2004
EXCESSIVE RAINFALL DISCUSSION
NWS HYDROMETEOROLOGICAL PREDICTION CENTER CAMP SPRINGS MD
850 AM EST WED MAR 03 2004
EXCESSIVE RAINFALL DISCUSSION
NWS HYDROMETEOROLOGICAL PREDICTION CENTER CAMP SPRINGS MD
230 AM EST WED MAR 03 2004
EXCESSIVE RAINFALL DISCUSSION
NWS HYDROMETEOROLOGICAL PREDICTION CENTER CAMP SPRINGS MD
824 PM EST TUE MAR 02 2004
EXCESSIVE RAINFALL DISCUSSION
NWS HYDROMETEOROLOGICAL PREDICTION CENTER CAMP SPRINGS MD
1245 PM EST TUE MAR 02 2004
EXCESSIVE RAINFALL DISCUSSION
NWS HYDROMETEOROLOGICAL PREDICTION CENTER CAMP SPRINGS MD
902 AM EST TUE MAR 02 2004
EXCESSIVE RAINFALL DISCUSSION
NWS HYDROMETEOROLOGICAL PREDICTION CENTER CAMP SPRINGS MD
136 AM EST TUE MAR 02 2004
EXCESSIVE RAINFALL DISCUSSION
NWS HYDROMETEOROLOGICAL PREDICTION CENTER CAMP SPRINGS MD
801 PM EST MON MAR 01 2004
EXCESSIVE RAINFALL DISCUSSION
NWS HYDROMETEOROLOGICAL PREDICTION CENTER CAMP SPRINGS MD
105 PM EST MON MAR 01 2004
EXCESSIVE RAINFALL DISCUSSION
NWS HYDROMETEOROLOGICAL PREDICTION CENTER CAMP SPRINGS MD
833 AM EST MON MAR 01 2004
EXCESSIVE RAINFALL DISCUSSION
NWS HYDROMETEOROLOGICAL PREDICTION CENTER CAMP SPRINGS MD
224 AM EST MON MAR 01 2004