618 
FXUS04 KWBC 050646
QPFPFD

QUANTITATIVE PRECIPITATION FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS HYDROMETEOROLOGICAL PREDICTION CENTER CAMP SPRINGS MD
144 AM EST FRI MAR 05 2004

PRELIM DAY 1 QPF DISCUSSION
VALID MAR 05/1200 UTC THRU MAR 06/1200 UTC
REFERENCE AWIPS GRAPHICS UNDER...PRECIP ACCUM - 24HR

...PRELIM DAY 1...

...GRT LKS INTO NERN U.S...
THE POTENT CNTRL PLNS SHRTWV TROF WL RACE TO THE NE AND WEAKEN
THIS PD AS LIFTS INTO THE MEAN RDG PSTN ACRS THE REGION. MDLS CONT
TO SHOW STG LOLVL WAA SUPPORTG A SWATH OF MOD/HVY PCPN WITH
SNW ALNG THE NRN EDGE OF THE MAIN PCPN SHIELD. SEE QPFHSD FOR
DETAILS ON THE HVY SNW THREAT. THE MDLS ARE FAIRLY CLS WITH THE
MIDLVL AND SFC SYS...WITH THE GFS AGN JUST SLGTLY FASTER THAN THE
ETA. XPCT THE HVIEST PCPN TO FALL OVR THE UPR GRT LKS INTO NRN NEW
ENG...ALNG/N OF THE SFC LOW TRACK...WITH SPOTTY ONE INCH AMTS JUST
N OF THE U.S./CAN BORDER.

...NRN MID ATLC SWWD INTO THE LWR MS VLY...
A MADDOX SYNOPTIC HVY RNFL EVENT WL DVLP ACRS THIS REGION LATER
TDA AND CONT TNGT. A CDFNT TRAILG SWWD FM THE GRT LKS/NEW ENG
LOW WL STALL ACRS THE REGION AS THE BNDRY BCMS ALIGNED WITH THE
MID/UPR LVL FLOW. THEN LATER TDA...AS SBTRPCL SHRTWV ENERGY LIFTS
NEWD AND HGTS BEGIN TO FALL...THE BNDRY SHLD BEGIN MOVG SLOLY
EWD. INCRSG DEEP LYRD SSWRLY FLOW WL BRING DEEP GULF/PAC MSTR
NWD ALNG THE BNDRY WITH THE MDLS INDICATG PWS POOLG TO ARND 1.75
INCHES ERLY TNGT. MDLS ALSO SHOW INCRSG SFC/8H CVRG THIS AFTN
ALNG THE BNDRY WITH INCRSG INSTBLTY AS HEATG/MSTR CVRG TAKES PLC
ALNG THE BNDRY. XPCT CNVCTN TO REDVLP LATER THIS AFTN ALNG THE
BNDRY OVR THE LWR MS VLY AND THEN BUILD/DVLP NEWD ALNG THE FNT
INTO THE CNTRL APLCHNS. ALTHOU CNVCTN SHLD LIFT NNEWD QUITE
RPDLY...THE OVRALL AREA OF HVY RN WL ONLY INCH EWD TNGT AS THE
BNDRY/LOLVL INFLOW REMAINS PARALLEL TO THE MID/UPR LVL FLOW. THE
ONE PRBLM SEEN IN MDL DATA IS THE GFS IS SHOWG SIGNS OF GRIDSCALE
FEEDBACK DURG THE SCND HALF OF THE PD. THIS SEEMS TO RESULT IN THE
BNDRY PUSHG SWD THRU THE NRN MID ATLC REGION FASTER THAN THE
OTHER MDLS...LKLY TO DUE TO STGR MIDLVL HGT FALLS. THIS RESULTS IN
HVIER PCPN THRU THE MID ATLC REGION AND MORE PCPN OVR THE SRN
APLCHNS. WL ADJUST TO KEEP THE PCPN FARTHER N...OVR THE NRN MID
ATLC REGION. ALSO WL ADJUST THE MAX SWWD INTO THE STG LOLVL MSTR
FLUX REGION AS THE DEEP MSTR WL EASILY SATURATE THE THCKNS
INDICATED BY THE MDLS. XPCT QUITE A LOT OF TRAING ACRS THE AREA
THAT WL LEAD TO LCL 1-2 INCH RNS IN A COUPLE OF HRS AND ISOLD 3-4
INCH
TOTALS BY SAT MRNG. THE INITIAL DAY 1 QPF IS STILL A LITTLE ON THE
CONSERVATIVE SIDE...BUT XPCT TO MAKE ADDTNL CHNGS AFTR SEEG THE 06
UTC MDL SUITE THAT HOPEFULLY WL INCRS CONFIDENCE ON WHERE TO
BEEF UP AMTS.

...PACIFIC NW TO THE NRN AND CNTRL ROCKIES...
A VRY STG SHRTWV TROF SWINGG ACRS THE REGION WL BRING A SHOT OF
PAC MSTR AND INCRSG ONSHORE FLOW THAT SHLD LAST THRU MOST OF
THE PD. THIS WL IN TURN SUPPORT INCRSG PCPN ALNG THE CSTL RNGS AND
CASCADES THAT WL EVENTUALLY MOV INTO THE NRN ROCKIES. MOD/HVY
AMTS ARE LKLY IN THE FAVORED HIER ELEVS AS UPSLOPE COMBINES WITH
THE STG MIDLVL DYNAMICS TO PROVIDE STG LIFT OVR THE REGION.

...INTERIOR W...
LGT PCPN WL BE SCT THRU THE REGION AS A COMBINATION OF FAST MOVG
SHRTWV ENERGY AND WRLY FLOW COMBINES TO SUPPORT LIFT.

ECKERT

GRAPHICS AVAILABLE ON THE WEB AT WWW.HPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV

24HR QP VT 06/12Z
 0.01 504652 498633 490618 486612 479605 469599 464596 458597 
      453598 447603 437613 434619 428625 423637 419649 415663 
      412677 405701 395725 391736 385747 374770 368781 361792 
      348812 346817 342821 337828 330838 322848 306866 299875 
      293883 287891 282899 280903 280912 277922 277932 278936 
      280938 283938 286941 287947 295951 305948 319933 336916 
      351901 360891 368884 377875 385868 391866 394864 398860 
      402857 409855 415853 420854 423859 423863 425869 422874 
      415885 410897 406907 405915 405926 408934 412939 422944 
      434948 440949 447949 458946 461945 468940 476933 480928 
      484921 486912 485904 484894 482884 485867 491837 495822 
      497810 500799 501791 503773 506706 506694 506687 506678 
      504652 
 0.01 544192 537186 533178 528168 523158 518152 512147 496135 
      492130 488126 484125 476123 471122 468124 465122 467119 
      471116 470110 468105 465102 459098 454093 451090 447089 
      439088 432088 428085 423086 421097 419100 415103 410100 
      406099 394109 379114 372129 372142 376144 377133 379129 
      382127 388124 391120 395117 400119 402123 408124 413124 
      417126 419130 416141 412147 406152 403154 403156 406159 
      409161 417161 420155 421151 423140 427131 431125 434123 
      437120 440121 442124 442128 440130 438133 435136 433144 
      432153 432156 434161 440169 444175 442179 440182 438189 
      437196 439202 441205 442206 445206 448202 452198 455192 
      460186 468180 475180 481186 483193 481196 478198 475199 
      471200 468203 466206 462205 458204 456208 453210 450212 
      447213 443213 439211 433210 429208 426207 424210 423216 
      420225 418228 415227 415219 413216 411215 407218 406223 
      403228 399230 398234 395237 394241 401246 411250 422253 
      433255 443257 463267 470271 478277 483282 491289 497296 
      507300 528244 528243 526240 524236 524235 521231 520230 
      519225 522225 525227 528229 530230 533232 
 0.01 524087 524081 523076 521068 515054 508041 501031 493023 
      487019 481020 478024 477028 477033 482049 488062 492067 
      496072 503081 507088 511093 514094 518093 523089 524087 
 0.01 453080 451076 450075 448072 447072 444070 441070 439070 
      436070 433072 433073 436074 439073 441075 443076 444078 
      447080 448080 450081 453081 453080 
 0.01 429064 428058 426055 420053 413053 407054 400052 392047 
      385044 379039 374034 369029 364027 359027 357026 354021 
      351014 349003 347979 345968 343966 341966 337970 335978 
      334987 333998 334011 337022 340031 349041 352044 354049 
      354056 355058 353061 349061 347065 355068 362068 367069 
      370072 372079 373082 377084 382084 386087 398082 404076 
      410076 413076 415073 416069 419068 423068 429064 
 0.01 360121 354113 347103 346098 344092 347089 352089 355086 
      352081 345080 338080 330075 329080 330086 331093 330097 
      327098 326103 329106 337115 348120 352122 356122 360121 
      360121 
 0.25 493668 490659 487650 482640 478635 473632 468626 458622 
      453621 449621 440627 434634 430641 428647 428652 428661 
      430663 437672 440677 441686 439704 437720 436734 434746 
      433760 433774 433788 430803 427814 428826 433836 438847 
      440862 438881 438897 445904 460898 470880 477846 482827 
      485815 488798 490782 491774 491765 491732 492715 493699 
      494692 494683 493668 
 0.25 531209 533204 532198 529189 524178 517164 510155 492141 
      487137 482136 482141 485144 489149 492155 489157 483153 
      476147 474147 470144 467142 463141 459142 457145 453148 
      447148 439147 438153 441159 450166 450169 450174 452176 
      454174 454170 456164 459162 462162 469164 476167 485174 
      502189 507193 513199 521207 524209 528210 531209 
 0.25 517278 519268 520259 518250 515243 513236 510229 502215 
      500210 495204 491202 486202 474204 465209 461209 459211 
      453214 443216 439216 437217 432220 430224 432230 435234 
      431236 424238 419241 424245 432247 444249 458252 469258 
      480266 490275 500286 504288 508289 512287 517278 
 0.25 461181 462178 463175 460175 457178 454181 454184 456185 
      459183 461181 
 0.25 413755 412747 408744 402747 398752 386771 363809 351825 
      338842 326860 318870 302892 296905 294918 294928 298937 
      303939 317928 331914 344901 347897 354889 368871 373864 
      377859 379853 383842 388833 398813 402802 406792 408782 
      411772 412763 413755 
 0.25 440111 444112 450114 454113 451110 447107 444103 441100 
      439101 439104 437106 434108 432108 431110 433111 438111 
      440111 
 0.50 481697 472672 463658 455652 444645 435649 438657 450668 
      457681 455699 449712 448726 443739 440755 440773 439789 
      436806 438819 444834 448850 451862 457872 464874 470861 
      477826 482803 485778 487757 485736 483717 481697 
 0.50 500216 498210 493208 489207 486206 482206 477207 474208 
      470209 466211 464212 461212 460213 458215 456215 454215 
      453215 451216 448217 446217 443217 440217 439218 436220 
      434222 435226 438228 441226 443225 446225 449226 452224 
      454223 456224 459228 459230 457230 456232 454232 451234 
      450235 448233 445234 443235 440237 438240 439242 442242 
      450244 460245 473250 488262 501278 506284 508279 506273 
      504268 502263 499256 496249 492242 489237 485235 482236 
      481234 480230 478227 479223 483223 487227 492233 496238 
      498242 502247 505254 509263 514263 514254 512250 509236 
      502220 500216 
 0.50 502166 501168 503175 509183 516188 521187 518180 513172 
      507166 505164 502166 
 0.50 466148 468148 470149 473152 477157 480161 479164 473162 
      467159 465154 464150 466148 
 0.50 404765 402761 397761 391769 380786 371801 361817 341844 
      336851 332859 327866 317881 307897 302909 300920 307925 
      317919 335904 342897 352886 359878 364872 368865 373856 
      381839 388824 393814 396805 401788 404777 404767 404765 
 1.00 498232 498227 498226 496222 496221 494221 494226 495229 
      496231 497233 498232 
 1.00 475233 474234 473236 473238 474242 478245 483250 489255 
      493253 490245 488241 485241 484243 482243 480240 479237 
      476234 475233 
 1.00 470811 469810 467812 465816 464818 463823 463828 465831 
      467829 469825 469823 470820 470815 470814 470811 
 1.00 474213 472216 472218 474218 477217 481219 484220 484217 
      483215 484213 484210 481210 478211 476211 475211 474213 
 1.00 462223 463221 464218 462216 460217 457219 455218 454216 
      453218 454221 456222 457223 459223 460224 462224 462223 
 1.00 393791 391784 387785 384787 375800 368811 360824 345846 
      333872 323888 314902 312909 314913 319911 330903 344891 
      358872 364863 370851 377837 384824 389810 393795 393791 
 2.00 354854 350863 354863 364849 372830 368830 363838 358848 
      354854  

$$


Click the links below to go to previous bulletins.

QUANTITATIVE PRECIPITATION FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS HYDROMETEOROLOGICAL PREDICTION CENTER CAMP SPRINGS MD
144 AM EST FRI MAR 05 2004

QUANTITATIVE PRECIPITATION FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS HYDROMETEOROLOGICAL PREDICTION CENTER CAMP SPRINGS MD
509 PM EST THU MAR 04 2004

QUANTITATIVE PRECIPITATION FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS HYDROMETEOROLOGICAL PREDICTION CENTER CAMP SPRINGS MD
236 PM EST THU MAR 04 2004

QUANTITATIVE PRECIPITATION FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS HYDROMETEOROLOGICAL PREDICTION CENTER CAMP SPRINGS MD
510 AM EST THU MAR 04 2004

QUANTITATIVE PRECIPITATION FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS HYDROMETEOROLOGICAL PREDICTION CENTER CAMP SPRINGS MD
200 AM EST THU MAR 04 2004

QUANTITATIVE PRECIPITATION FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS HYDROMETEOROLOGICAL PREDICTION CENTER CAMP SPRINGS MD
156 AM EST THU MAR 04 2004

QUANTITATIVE PRECIPITATION FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS HYDROMETEOROLOGICAL PREDICTION CENTER CAMP SPRINGS MD
249 PM EST WED MAR 03 2004

QUANTITATIVE PRECIPITATION FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS HYDROMETEOROLOGICAL PREDICTION CENTER CAMP SPRINGS MD
525 AM EST WED MAR 03 2004

QUANTITATIVE PRECIPITATION FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS HYDROMETEOROLOGICAL PREDICTION CENTER CAMP SPRINGS MD
238 AM EST WED MAR 03 2004

QUANTITATIVE PRECIPITATION FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS HYDROMETEOROLOGICAL PREDICTION CENTER CAMP SPRINGS MD
223 AM EST WED MAR 03 2004

QUANTITATIVE PRECIPITATION FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS HYDROMETEOROLOGICAL PREDICTION CENTER CAMP SPRINGS MD
521 PM EST TUE MAR 02 2004

QUANTITATIVE PRECIPITATION FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS HYDROMETEOROLOGICAL PREDICTION CENTER CAMP SPRINGS MD
204 PM EST TUE MAR 02 2004

QUANTITATIVE PRECIPITATION FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS HYDROMETEOROLOGICAL PREDICTION CENTER CAMP SPRINGS MD
201 PM EST TUE MAR 02 2004

QUANTITATIVE PRECIPITATION FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS HYDROMETEOROLOGICAL PREDICTION CENTER CAMP SPRINGS MD
125 PM EST TUE MAR 02 2004

QUANTITATIVE PRECIPITATION FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS HYDROMETEOROLOGICAL PREDICTION CENTER CAMP SPRINGS MD
521 AM EST TUE MAR 02 2004

QUANTITATIVE PRECIPITATION FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS HYDROMETEOROLOGICAL PREDICTION CENTER CAMP SPRINGS MD
200 AM EST TUE MAR 02 2004

QUANTITATIVE PRECIPITATION FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS HYDROMETEOROLOGICAL PREDICTION CENTER CAMP SPRINGS MD
135 AM EST TUE MAR 02 2004

QUANTITATIVE PRECIPITATION FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS HYDROMETEOROLOGICAL PREDICTION CENTER CAMP SPRINGS MD
514 PM EST MON MAR 01 2004

QUANTITATIVE PRECIPITATION FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS HYDROMETEOROLOGICAL PREDICTION CENTER CAMP SPRINGS MD
134 PM EST MON MAR 01 2004

QUANTITATIVE PRECIPITATION FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS HYDROMETEOROLOGICAL PREDICTION CENTER CAMP SPRINGS MD
545 AM EST MON MAR 01 2004

QUANTITATIVE PRECIPITATION FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS HYDROMETEOROLOGICAL PREDICTION CENTER CAMP SPRINGS MD
219 AM EST MON MAR 01 2004

QUANTITATIVE PRECIPITATION FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS HYDROMETEOROLOGICAL PREDICTION CENTER CAMP SPRINGS MD
216 AM EST MON MAR 01 2004

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