618
FXUS04 KWBC 050646
QPFPFD
QUANTITATIVE PRECIPITATION FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS HYDROMETEOROLOGICAL PREDICTION CENTER CAMP SPRINGS MD
144 AM EST FRI MAR 05 2004
PRELIM DAY 1 QPF DISCUSSION
VALID MAR 05/1200 UTC THRU MAR 06/1200 UTC
REFERENCE AWIPS GRAPHICS UNDER...PRECIP ACCUM - 24HR
...PRELIM DAY 1...
...GRT LKS INTO NERN U.S...
THE POTENT CNTRL PLNS SHRTWV TROF WL RACE TO THE NE AND WEAKEN
THIS PD AS LIFTS INTO THE MEAN RDG PSTN ACRS THE REGION. MDLS CONT
TO SHOW STG LOLVL WAA SUPPORTG A SWATH OF MOD/HVY PCPN WITH
SNW ALNG THE NRN EDGE OF THE MAIN PCPN SHIELD. SEE QPFHSD FOR
DETAILS ON THE HVY SNW THREAT. THE MDLS ARE FAIRLY CLS WITH THE
MIDLVL AND SFC SYS...WITH THE GFS AGN JUST SLGTLY FASTER THAN THE
ETA. XPCT THE HVIEST PCPN TO FALL OVR THE UPR GRT LKS INTO NRN NEW
ENG...ALNG/N OF THE SFC LOW TRACK...WITH SPOTTY ONE INCH AMTS JUST
N OF THE U.S./CAN BORDER.
...NRN MID ATLC SWWD INTO THE LWR MS VLY...
A MADDOX SYNOPTIC HVY RNFL EVENT WL DVLP ACRS THIS REGION LATER
TDA AND CONT TNGT. A CDFNT TRAILG SWWD FM THE GRT LKS/NEW ENG
LOW WL STALL ACRS THE REGION AS THE BNDRY BCMS ALIGNED WITH THE
MID/UPR LVL FLOW. THEN LATER TDA...AS SBTRPCL SHRTWV ENERGY LIFTS
NEWD AND HGTS BEGIN TO FALL...THE BNDRY SHLD BEGIN MOVG SLOLY
EWD. INCRSG DEEP LYRD SSWRLY FLOW WL BRING DEEP GULF/PAC MSTR
NWD ALNG THE BNDRY WITH THE MDLS INDICATG PWS POOLG TO ARND 1.75
INCHES ERLY TNGT. MDLS ALSO SHOW INCRSG SFC/8H CVRG THIS AFTN
ALNG THE BNDRY WITH INCRSG INSTBLTY AS HEATG/MSTR CVRG TAKES PLC
ALNG THE BNDRY. XPCT CNVCTN TO REDVLP LATER THIS AFTN ALNG THE
BNDRY OVR THE LWR MS VLY AND THEN BUILD/DVLP NEWD ALNG THE FNT
INTO THE CNTRL APLCHNS. ALTHOU CNVCTN SHLD LIFT NNEWD QUITE
RPDLY...THE OVRALL AREA OF HVY RN WL ONLY INCH EWD TNGT AS THE
BNDRY/LOLVL INFLOW REMAINS PARALLEL TO THE MID/UPR LVL FLOW. THE
ONE PRBLM SEEN IN MDL DATA IS THE GFS IS SHOWG SIGNS OF GRIDSCALE
FEEDBACK DURG THE SCND HALF OF THE PD. THIS SEEMS TO RESULT IN THE
BNDRY PUSHG SWD THRU THE NRN MID ATLC REGION FASTER THAN THE
OTHER MDLS...LKLY TO DUE TO STGR MIDLVL HGT FALLS. THIS RESULTS IN
HVIER PCPN THRU THE MID ATLC REGION AND MORE PCPN OVR THE SRN
APLCHNS. WL ADJUST TO KEEP THE PCPN FARTHER N...OVR THE NRN MID
ATLC REGION. ALSO WL ADJUST THE MAX SWWD INTO THE STG LOLVL MSTR
FLUX REGION AS THE DEEP MSTR WL EASILY SATURATE THE THCKNS
INDICATED BY THE MDLS. XPCT QUITE A LOT OF TRAING ACRS THE AREA
THAT WL LEAD TO LCL 1-2 INCH RNS IN A COUPLE OF HRS AND ISOLD 3-4
INCH
TOTALS BY SAT MRNG. THE INITIAL DAY 1 QPF IS STILL A LITTLE ON THE
CONSERVATIVE SIDE...BUT XPCT TO MAKE ADDTNL CHNGS AFTR SEEG THE 06
UTC MDL SUITE THAT HOPEFULLY WL INCRS CONFIDENCE ON WHERE TO
BEEF UP AMTS.
...PACIFIC NW TO THE NRN AND CNTRL ROCKIES...
A VRY STG SHRTWV TROF SWINGG ACRS THE REGION WL BRING A SHOT OF
PAC MSTR AND INCRSG ONSHORE FLOW THAT SHLD LAST THRU MOST OF
THE PD. THIS WL IN TURN SUPPORT INCRSG PCPN ALNG THE CSTL RNGS AND
CASCADES THAT WL EVENTUALLY MOV INTO THE NRN ROCKIES. MOD/HVY
AMTS ARE LKLY IN THE FAVORED HIER ELEVS AS UPSLOPE COMBINES WITH
THE STG MIDLVL DYNAMICS TO PROVIDE STG LIFT OVR THE REGION.
...INTERIOR W...
LGT PCPN WL BE SCT THRU THE REGION AS A COMBINATION OF FAST MOVG
SHRTWV ENERGY AND WRLY FLOW COMBINES TO SUPPORT LIFT.
ECKERT
GRAPHICS AVAILABLE ON THE WEB AT WWW.HPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV
24HR QP VT 06/12Z
0.01 504652 498633 490618 486612 479605 469599 464596 458597
453598 447603 437613 434619 428625 423637 419649 415663
412677 405701 395725 391736 385747 374770 368781 361792
348812 346817 342821 337828 330838 322848 306866 299875
293883 287891 282899 280903 280912 277922 277932 278936
280938 283938 286941 287947 295951 305948 319933 336916
351901 360891 368884 377875 385868 391866 394864 398860
402857 409855 415853 420854 423859 423863 425869 422874
415885 410897 406907 405915 405926 408934 412939 422944
434948 440949 447949 458946 461945 468940 476933 480928
484921 486912 485904 484894 482884 485867 491837 495822
497810 500799 501791 503773 506706 506694 506687 506678
504652
0.01 544192 537186 533178 528168 523158 518152 512147 496135
492130 488126 484125 476123 471122 468124 465122 467119
471116 470110 468105 465102 459098 454093 451090 447089
439088 432088 428085 423086 421097 419100 415103 410100
406099 394109 379114 372129 372142 376144 377133 379129
382127 388124 391120 395117 400119 402123 408124 413124
417126 419130 416141 412147 406152 403154 403156 406159
409161 417161 420155 421151 423140 427131 431125 434123
437120 440121 442124 442128 440130 438133 435136 433144
432153 432156 434161 440169 444175 442179 440182 438189
437196 439202 441205 442206 445206 448202 452198 455192
460186 468180 475180 481186 483193 481196 478198 475199
471200 468203 466206 462205 458204 456208 453210 450212
447213 443213 439211 433210 429208 426207 424210 423216
420225 418228 415227 415219 413216 411215 407218 406223
403228 399230 398234 395237 394241 401246 411250 422253
433255 443257 463267 470271 478277 483282 491289 497296
507300 528244 528243 526240 524236 524235 521231 520230
519225 522225 525227 528229 530230 533232
0.01 524087 524081 523076 521068 515054 508041 501031 493023
487019 481020 478024 477028 477033 482049 488062 492067
496072 503081 507088 511093 514094 518093 523089 524087
0.01 453080 451076 450075 448072 447072 444070 441070 439070
436070 433072 433073 436074 439073 441075 443076 444078
447080 448080 450081 453081 453080
0.01 429064 428058 426055 420053 413053 407054 400052 392047
385044 379039 374034 369029 364027 359027 357026 354021
351014 349003 347979 345968 343966 341966 337970 335978
334987 333998 334011 337022 340031 349041 352044 354049
354056 355058 353061 349061 347065 355068 362068 367069
370072 372079 373082 377084 382084 386087 398082 404076
410076 413076 415073 416069 419068 423068 429064
0.01 360121 354113 347103 346098 344092 347089 352089 355086
352081 345080 338080 330075 329080 330086 331093 330097
327098 326103 329106 337115 348120 352122 356122 360121
360121
0.25 493668 490659 487650 482640 478635 473632 468626 458622
453621 449621 440627 434634 430641 428647 428652 428661
430663 437672 440677 441686 439704 437720 436734 434746
433760 433774 433788 430803 427814 428826 433836 438847
440862 438881 438897 445904 460898 470880 477846 482827
485815 488798 490782 491774 491765 491732 492715 493699
494692 494683 493668
0.25 531209 533204 532198 529189 524178 517164 510155 492141
487137 482136 482141 485144 489149 492155 489157 483153
476147 474147 470144 467142 463141 459142 457145 453148
447148 439147 438153 441159 450166 450169 450174 452176
454174 454170 456164 459162 462162 469164 476167 485174
502189 507193 513199 521207 524209 528210 531209
0.25 517278 519268 520259 518250 515243 513236 510229 502215
500210 495204 491202 486202 474204 465209 461209 459211
453214 443216 439216 437217 432220 430224 432230 435234
431236 424238 419241 424245 432247 444249 458252 469258
480266 490275 500286 504288 508289 512287 517278
0.25 461181 462178 463175 460175 457178 454181 454184 456185
459183 461181
0.25 413755 412747 408744 402747 398752 386771 363809 351825
338842 326860 318870 302892 296905 294918 294928 298937
303939 317928 331914 344901 347897 354889 368871 373864
377859 379853 383842 388833 398813 402802 406792 408782
411772 412763 413755
0.25 440111 444112 450114 454113 451110 447107 444103 441100
439101 439104 437106 434108 432108 431110 433111 438111
440111
0.50 481697 472672 463658 455652 444645 435649 438657 450668
457681 455699 449712 448726 443739 440755 440773 439789
436806 438819 444834 448850 451862 457872 464874 470861
477826 482803 485778 487757 485736 483717 481697
0.50 500216 498210 493208 489207 486206 482206 477207 474208
470209 466211 464212 461212 460213 458215 456215 454215
453215 451216 448217 446217 443217 440217 439218 436220
434222 435226 438228 441226 443225 446225 449226 452224
454223 456224 459228 459230 457230 456232 454232 451234
450235 448233 445234 443235 440237 438240 439242 442242
450244 460245 473250 488262 501278 506284 508279 506273
504268 502263 499256 496249 492242 489237 485235 482236
481234 480230 478227 479223 483223 487227 492233 496238
498242 502247 505254 509263 514263 514254 512250 509236
502220 500216
0.50 502166 501168 503175 509183 516188 521187 518180 513172
507166 505164 502166
0.50 466148 468148 470149 473152 477157 480161 479164 473162
467159 465154 464150 466148
0.50 404765 402761 397761 391769 380786 371801 361817 341844
336851 332859 327866 317881 307897 302909 300920 307925
317919 335904 342897 352886 359878 364872 368865 373856
381839 388824 393814 396805 401788 404777 404767 404765
1.00 498232 498227 498226 496222 496221 494221 494226 495229
496231 497233 498232
1.00 475233 474234 473236 473238 474242 478245 483250 489255
493253 490245 488241 485241 484243 482243 480240 479237
476234 475233
1.00 470811 469810 467812 465816 464818 463823 463828 465831
467829 469825 469823 470820 470815 470814 470811
1.00 474213 472216 472218 474218 477217 481219 484220 484217
483215 484213 484210 481210 478211 476211 475211 474213
1.00 462223 463221 464218 462216 460217 457219 455218 454216
453218 454221 456222 457223 459223 460224 462224 462223
1.00 393791 391784 387785 384787 375800 368811 360824 345846
333872 323888 314902 312909 314913 319911 330903 344891
358872 364863 370851 377837 384824 389810 393795 393791
2.00 354854 350863 354863 364849 372830 368830 363838 358848
354854
$$
Click the links below to go to previous bulletins.
QUANTITATIVE PRECIPITATION FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS HYDROMETEOROLOGICAL PREDICTION CENTER CAMP SPRINGS MD
144 AM EST FRI MAR 05 2004
QUANTITATIVE PRECIPITATION FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS HYDROMETEOROLOGICAL PREDICTION CENTER CAMP SPRINGS MD
509 PM EST THU MAR 04 2004
QUANTITATIVE PRECIPITATION FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS HYDROMETEOROLOGICAL PREDICTION CENTER CAMP SPRINGS MD
236 PM EST THU MAR 04 2004
QUANTITATIVE PRECIPITATION FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS HYDROMETEOROLOGICAL PREDICTION CENTER CAMP SPRINGS MD
510 AM EST THU MAR 04 2004
QUANTITATIVE PRECIPITATION FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS HYDROMETEOROLOGICAL PREDICTION CENTER CAMP SPRINGS MD
200 AM EST THU MAR 04 2004
QUANTITATIVE PRECIPITATION FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS HYDROMETEOROLOGICAL PREDICTION CENTER CAMP SPRINGS MD
156 AM EST THU MAR 04 2004
QUANTITATIVE PRECIPITATION FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS HYDROMETEOROLOGICAL PREDICTION CENTER CAMP SPRINGS MD
249 PM EST WED MAR 03 2004
QUANTITATIVE PRECIPITATION FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS HYDROMETEOROLOGICAL PREDICTION CENTER CAMP SPRINGS MD
525 AM EST WED MAR 03 2004
QUANTITATIVE PRECIPITATION FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS HYDROMETEOROLOGICAL PREDICTION CENTER CAMP SPRINGS MD
238 AM EST WED MAR 03 2004
QUANTITATIVE PRECIPITATION FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS HYDROMETEOROLOGICAL PREDICTION CENTER CAMP SPRINGS MD
223 AM EST WED MAR 03 2004
QUANTITATIVE PRECIPITATION FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS HYDROMETEOROLOGICAL PREDICTION CENTER CAMP SPRINGS MD
521 PM EST TUE MAR 02 2004
QUANTITATIVE PRECIPITATION FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS HYDROMETEOROLOGICAL PREDICTION CENTER CAMP SPRINGS MD
204 PM EST TUE MAR 02 2004
QUANTITATIVE PRECIPITATION FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS HYDROMETEOROLOGICAL PREDICTION CENTER CAMP SPRINGS MD
201 PM EST TUE MAR 02 2004
QUANTITATIVE PRECIPITATION FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS HYDROMETEOROLOGICAL PREDICTION CENTER CAMP SPRINGS MD
125 PM EST TUE MAR 02 2004
QUANTITATIVE PRECIPITATION FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS HYDROMETEOROLOGICAL PREDICTION CENTER CAMP SPRINGS MD
521 AM EST TUE MAR 02 2004
QUANTITATIVE PRECIPITATION FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS HYDROMETEOROLOGICAL PREDICTION CENTER CAMP SPRINGS MD
200 AM EST TUE MAR 02 2004
QUANTITATIVE PRECIPITATION FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS HYDROMETEOROLOGICAL PREDICTION CENTER CAMP SPRINGS MD
135 AM EST TUE MAR 02 2004
QUANTITATIVE PRECIPITATION FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS HYDROMETEOROLOGICAL PREDICTION CENTER CAMP SPRINGS MD
514 PM EST MON MAR 01 2004
QUANTITATIVE PRECIPITATION FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS HYDROMETEOROLOGICAL PREDICTION CENTER CAMP SPRINGS MD
134 PM EST MON MAR 01 2004
QUANTITATIVE PRECIPITATION FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS HYDROMETEOROLOGICAL PREDICTION CENTER CAMP SPRINGS MD
545 AM EST MON MAR 01 2004
QUANTITATIVE PRECIPITATION FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS HYDROMETEOROLOGICAL PREDICTION CENTER CAMP SPRINGS MD
219 AM EST MON MAR 01 2004
QUANTITATIVE PRECIPITATION FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS HYDROMETEOROLOGICAL PREDICTION CENTER CAMP SPRINGS MD
216 AM EST MON MAR 01 2004