November 15, 1989

MKC AC 150700
CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK...REF AFOS NMCGPH940
VALID 151200 - 161200

THERE IS A MDT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TDA OVR MS AND AL...MUCH OF SRN TN...MNS OF WRN AND NRN GA ... AND THE WRN FL PNHDL. THE MDT AREA IS TO THE RGT OF A LN FM 40 WSW GPT HEZ GLH MEM BNA CSV AHN MCN PAM.

SURROUNDING THE AREA OF MDT RISK..THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RGT OF A LN FM BPT TXK 60 NW JBR MDH LEX BLF HKY AGS 30 SE TLH.

GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RGT OF A LN FM LRD ACT HRO STL MKG OSC.

SHRT WV TROF INITIALLY OVR CNTRL ROCKIES AT 15/00Z IS FCST TO MOVE RPDLY ESEWD ACRS MID/LWR MS VLY AND ASSUME A SMWHT NEG TILT ACRS SERN U.S. BY END OF PD. ASSOCD STG CDFNT PUSHES EWD FM MID MS VLY...TX AT 15/12Z TO SRN APPLCNS ... FL PNHDL AT 16/12Z. AMS AHD OF CDFNT EXPCD TO BE MDTLY UNSTABLE FM TN VLY SWD TO GULF COAST ... WITH SFC DEWPTS IN LO TO MID 60S AND LIS IN -4 TO -6 RANGE. 500MB WINDS OVR FNLT BNDRY ARE FCST TO INCR FM ARND 50KTS TO NR 70KTS BY END OF PD. SSWLY 850MB JET ALSO FCST TO STGTHN TO OVR 40 KTS FM SE LA TO SRN APLCS BY 16/00Z. STG DYNAMICS COMBINED WITH MDT INTBY EXPCD TO RESULT IN SGFNT SVR DVLPMT TDA FM MID TN VLY SWD TO GULF COAST.

TSTMS DVLPG ALG CDFNT ATTM OVR SW MO ARE EXPCD TO INCR DURG RMNDR TNGT .. PSBLY REACHING SVR LIMITS BY 12Z. ACTVTY EXPCD TO INTSFY FURTHER DURG THE DAY AND DVLP SWD ALG CDFNT ALG LWR MS VLY. AS ACTVTY MOVES EWD ACRS MS/AL...STG WIND FIELDS INDC PSBLTY OF SGFNT TORNADOS...AND TORNADO THRT MAY EXTD EWD INTO WRN/NRN GA BY END OF PD. OTR SVR TSTMS ARE PSBL TO N ACRS NRN TN AND KY...HWVR PRIND INSTY WILL BE MORE LIMITED THERE.

..COPE.. 11/15/89