-MKC AC 271930

CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK...REF AFOS NMCGPH94O

VALID 271930 - 281200Z

REF WW 780...VALID UNTIL 2200Z.

THERE IS A HIGH RISK OF SVR TSTMS OVR PTNS OF MN..SERN SD..NRN IA..MUCH OF WI..AND UPPER MI. AREA IS TO THE RGT OF A LN FM SSM 20 S MBL MKE DBQ 20 NE OFK 30 WNW YKN 45 SSW BJI 40 ESE D45.

THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RGT OF A LN FM ORF 25 E HKY TRI PKB ZZV IND SPI 25 W OTM 20 E OLU 30 WNW BUB 30 E D45 ...CONT...20 NW ROC 15 NE BGM JFK.

TSTMS MAY APCH SVR LIMITS TO THE RGT OF A LN FM IPL LAS P38 SLC VEL 20 SE GJT GUP DUG.

GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RGT OF A LN FM CZZ BIH RNO SVE 15 N LMT 30 ENE BLI ...CONT...40 NNE FCA 3DU COD 30 NNE VTN ABR 25 WSW D45 ...CONT...45 NNE BML 20 SW HUL.

GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RGT OF A LN FM 35 NW LRD 10 N SAT FTW OKC HLC LBF SNY 30 E DEN 15 E RTN CNM MRF 55 S MRF.

DYNAMIC SITUATION STILL EVOLVING ACRS UPR MS VLY/WRN GRTLKS RGN. VORT MAX/SHRTWV TROF CURRENTLY ACRS SRN MAN IS PROGD TO TURN ESEWD TWD NRN LK SUPERIOR BY END OF PD AS 70KT MID LVL JET STREAKS ACRS MN/WRN WI. DEEPENING SFC LO NOW LOCATED OVR N CNTRL MN IS EXPCD TO MOV RAPIDLY NEWD ACRS NERN MN INTO SRN ONT OVERNIGHT MAINTAINING STG UVVS AND LOW LVL SSWLY FLOW ACRS PTNS OF UPR MS VLY/WRN GRTLKS. 850 MB FLOW FM LTST PROFILERS INDC 45-50 KT SWLY FLOW FM ERN NEB/WRN IA INTO SRN MN. THIS WL KEEP STG INFLOW AND FVRBL SHEAR PROFILE FOR TORNADIC TSTMS. PRIND AMS IS STILL CAPPED IN WRM SECTOR AHD OF THE FNT..BUT MDLS SUG CAP WL BE BKN WITH FURTHER DSTBLZN DUE TO MID LVL CD ADVCTN FM APCHG SHRTWV. WHEN CAP BREAKS LATER THIS EVE..CAPES 5000-6000 J/KG WL BE REALIZED IN WRM SECTOR. THUS EXPECT SVR TSTMS TO DVLP AND TRACK ENEWD ACRS ERN MN INTO WI AS WRM FNT CONTS TO LIFT NWD INTO LS.

SVR TSTMS APPR TO BE INCRG FM PTNS OF NRN PA/SRN NY SWD INTO MID ATLC STATES WHERE MID LVL CD TROF AND WK CNVGNC HAS BEEN ENHANCING LIFT IN MDTLY UNSTBL AMS. EXPANDED SLGT RISK ACRS THIS AREA AS PULSE TYPE SVR TSTMS CONT TO DVLP.

..GRANT.. 08/27/94