ZCZC MKCSWODY1 000
ACUSI KMKC 190607
MKC AC 190606

CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK...REF AFOS NMCGPH940.

VALID 191200Z - 201200Z

REF WW NUMBER 0186...VALID TIL 1200Z

THERE IS A MDT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACRS MUCH OF IL AND IND...WRN OHIO...WRN KY...WRN TN...NWRN MS...AND ERN AR. THE MDT RISK IS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM LUK CKV UOX 20 NNW GLH PBF LIT PO2 25 NW MDH BLV UIN BRL 40 E MLI 35 W TOL FDY 30 E DAY LUK.

THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 25 N ART 35 NNW MSV CXY CRW LOZ 35 WNW CHA TCL JAN LFK 55 E ACT DAL PGO UNO 20 ENE VIH IRK 25 WNW OTM CID JVL 20 NNE MBS.

GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 25 N PEG JFK ... CONT ... SSI PFN ... CONT ... EPT CLL FTW FYV TBN COU STJ BIE GRI 45 ENE BUB 3SE LSE OSH 50 E MQT.

GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 45 NNW FCA BPI 35 NW VEL ELY SFO.

...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM FORECAST DISCUSSION...

SERIES OF SHRTWV TROFS WILL MOVE ACRS THE CNTRL PLAINS AND OHIO VALLEY RGNS TDA AND TNGT SETTING THE STAGE FOR A POSSIBLE SIGNIFICANT SVR WX EVENT...MAINLY ACRS THE MID MS AND LOWER OHIO VALLEY RGNS.

UVV AHEAD OF LEADING SHRTWV TROF...WHICH WILL LIFT NEWD ACRS THE GREAT LAKES THROUGH EARLY THIS AFTN...IS EXPECTED TO SUPPORT CNVTN ACRS THE UPPER OHIO VALLEY RGN TDA. AMS IS EXPECTED TO BCM MRGLLY TO MDTLY UNSTBL ACRS THIS RGN BY THE MID AFTN /LI FM -2 TO -4/ AS SFC DWPNTS RISE INTO THE LOWER 50S...SUGGESTING ISOLD TSTMS MAY BCM SVR.

MAIN SVR THREAT IS EXPECTED TO BE OVER THE MS/OHIO VALLEY BY LATER THIS AFTN AHEAD OF STG SHRTWV TROF...CURRENTLY LCTD OVER THE CNTRL ROCKIES...AND ASSOCIATED CDFNT/DRY LINE. HEIGHT/PRES FALLS IN ADVN OF APPROACHING TROF WILL MAINTAIN SLY LOW LEVEL FLOW WITH H85 SPEEDS FROM 30-50 KT BY LATE THIS AFTN. THIS SHOULD ALLOW LOW LVL MSTR TO QUICKLY RECOVER EARLY IN THE PD ACRS THE MID MS VALLEY/LOWER OHIO VALLEY RGNS...INCRG SFC DWPNTS INTO THE 60S. ASSOCIATED SFC LOW IS EXPECTED TO BE LCTD OVER N-CNTRL MO/SRN IA BY LATE THIS AFTN WITH CDFNT TRAILING S-SWWD INTO NERN TX...AND WARM FRONT EXTENDING EWD ACRS NRN IL/NRN IND. AMS WILL LIKELY BCM MDT TO STRONGLY UNSTBL WITHIN WARM SECTOR FM NERN TX TO NRN IL WITH LI TO  -10...CAPES NR 3000 J/KG. IN ADDITION...IMPRESSIVE SWLY MID LVL SPEED MAX/WITH H5 WINDS FM 50-70 KT/ IS EXPECTED TO OVERRIDE WARM SECTOR AND SIGNIFICANTLY INCR SHEAR PROFILE ACRS MDT RISK AREA.