ZCZC MKCSWODY1 000
ACUS1 KMKC 191859
MKC AC 191859

CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK...REF AFOS NMCGPH940.

VALID 191900Z - 201200Z

THERE IS A HIGH RISK OF SVR TSTMS THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT OVER PARTS OF ERN MO...MUCH OF CNTRL AND SRN IL...MUCH OF IND...AND PARTS OF WRN KY. THE HIGH RISK IS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 40 NE SDF BWG 35 SSE PAH P02 40 SSE UIN PIA MMO SBN FWA 40 NE SDF.

THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 25 N ART 35 NNW MSV CXY CRW 35 WNW CHA TUP MLU TYR PRK PGO UNO VIH IRK 25 WNW OTM ALO MSN 20 NNE MBS.

GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 25 N PBC JFK ... CONT ... SSI AQQ ... CONT ... BPT 35 W TPL MWL MKO TBN COU STJ BIE GRI 45 ENE BJB FSD RWF IWD CMX.

GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 45 NNW FCA BPI 35 NW VEL ELY SFO.

...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM FORECAST DISCUSSION...

...MID MS VLY/LOWER OH VLY...

PARAMETERS ARE COMING TOGETHER THIS AFTERNOON FOR A SIGNIFICANT SEVERE WX OUTBREAK OVER PTNS OF THE MID MS/LOWER OH VLYS.

SATELLITE DATA SUG UPR LVL SHRTWV TROF/VORT MAX LOCATED OVER THE CNTRL PLAINS IS MOVG EWD AS EARLIER FCST WITH ASSOCIATED SFC LOW/COLD FNT/DRY LINE SURGING EWD INTO MO. AT 18Z...SFC LOW WAS CNTRD NW OF STJ WITH WELL DEFINED DRY LINE SURGING EWD INTO WRN PTNS OF MO...EXTD SWWD INTO ERN OK...AND N CNTRL TX. E FM THE LOW CNTR...A WARM FRONT WAS BECOMING BETTER DEFINED ACRS NRN PTNS OF MO INTO CNTRL IL.

LATEST VSB SAT IMAGERY SHOWS LOW CLDS ERODING OVER SERN MO/SRN IL WITH TEMPS NOW INTO THE MID 80S E OF THE DRY LINE OVER CNTRL MO WHERE STG HTG IS TAKING PLACE. STG S-SELY FLOW HAS TRANSPORTED DEEP LOW LVL MSTR INTO THIS RGN WITH SFC DWPNTS AOA 60 DEG S OF THE WARM FNT. AS A RESULT...CAPE VALUES ARE EXCEEDING 2500 J/KG FM CNTRL PTNS OF MO INTO W CNTRL IL ATTM...AND THESE VALUES SHUD INCR AS THE AFTN PROGRESSES.

CURRENT THINKING IS TSTMS SHUD DVLP ALG DRY LINE WITHIN NEXT FEW HRS...AND QUICKLY BECOME SVR AS STG SPD SHEAR AND VEERING WINDS WITH HGT SUPPORT SUPERCELL DVLPMT. FAVORABLE STORM RELATIVE WINDS SUG TORNADOES ARE PSBL IN ADDITION TO LARGE HAIL ACRS HIGH RISK AREA. ANOTHER BNDRY FAVORABLE FOR TSTM DVLPMT WILL BE THE E-W WARM FNT WHERE ACTIVITY MAY INITIATE BY LATE AFTN AS WELL.