ZCZC MKCSWODY1000
ACUS1 KMKC 021500
-MKC AC 021500

CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK...REF AFOS NMCGPH94O.

VALID 021500Z - 031200Z

THERE IS A MDT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TDA THRU TNGT OVR PARTS OF AR...ERN OK...TN...NE TX...NRN LA...MS...AL...KY...IND...IL...AND MO...TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 30 E DAL MLC MKO 20 NW HRO 50 ESE
TBN SLO BMG SDF 35 SE BNA RMG LGC MGM LUL POE 45 W LFK 30 E DAL.

THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 35 SW GLS AUS 15 W SEP ADM TUL JLN MKC 40 NW 3OI MLI DTW...CONT... 30 WSW ERI CRW SPA MCN AQQ.

GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM PSX 25 WSW AUS ABI OKC PNC P28 CAO GUC BPI 50 WNW CTB ...CONT... 60 NW GGW CDR BBW SUX RST 35 SE OSC ...CONT... 25 NW SYR HGR GSO AGS 20 E AQQ.

...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM FORECAST DISCUSSION...
MRNG STLT AND UPR AIR DATA SHOW SHRTWV TROF DEEPENING OVR THE CNTRL AND SRN HI PLNS ATTM...WITH BAND OF MIDLVL FLOW IN EXCESS OF 50 KTS EXTENDING FM CNTL NM ACRS CNTRL TX NEWD INTO AR/MO/IL.  COLD AIR UPSTRM OVR THE CNTRL RCKYS /MIDLVL TEMPS BLO MINUS 25/ SUGS SYS SHUN CONT TO AMPLIFY...TAKING ON A MORE NEG TILT ORIENTATION BY THE END OF THE PD.  AT THE SFC...MAIN ASSOCD SFC LO XPCD TO EVOLVE INVOF MKC DURG THE NXT FEW HRS BEFORE HEADING NEWD TO VCNTY OF DTW BY SAT MRNG.  PATTERN HAS BEEN LEFT SOMEWHAT COMPLICATED BY OUTFLOW BNDRY LEFT FM OVRNGT CNVTN ACRS OK/AR...AND DVLPMT OF ELEVATED WRM ADVCTN STMS ATTM OVR NE TX/SRN AR.     

...ERN OK TO MID MS VLY...
COMBINATION OF DAYTIME HTG...MODEST MIDLVL CD ADVTN AND STG VERTSHEAR WL BE FVRBL FOR SUPERCELL DVLPMT TDA INTO ERY TNGT FM ERN PTNS OF OK NEWD INTO MUCH OF AR/SRN MO/WRN TN AND WRN KY.  LATEST SFC DATA SHOW LOLVL MSTR CONTG TO SPRD NWD QUITE RAPIDLY ACRS THE MID MS/LWR OH VLY RGN...WITH DWPTS IN THE LO 60S XPCD ACRS THIS AREA BY ERY AFTN.  GIVEN STRENGTH OF WIND FIELD AND QUALITY OF LOLVL MSTR RETURN...SETUP APPEARS FVRBL FOR TORNADOES IN ADN TO LRG HAIL/HI WNDS.

...E TX TO AL/NW GA...
TRUE GULF AIR HAS OVRSPRD THE SRN U.S....WITH DWPTS IN THE UPR 60S/LO 70S EXTENDING FM E TX EWD INTO XTRM SRN MS.  WITH SSWLY LOLVL JET LKLY TO RMN QUITE STG IN REPONSE TO APCHG SRN PLNS SPD MAX...EXPECT READINGS IN THE UPR 60S TO SPRD N INTO NRN AL/NW GA BY 12Z SAT.  WRM ADVTN TSTMS DVLPG ATTM OVR NE TX...ALG WITH SFC-BASED DVLPMT XPCD LTR TDA ACRS THE NE TX AREA...LKLY TO EVOLVE TO A SGFNT CNVTV SYS WHICH SHUD MOV/PROPAGATE RAPIDLY EWD ALG WRM FNT INTO PTNS OF AL/TN/NW GA BY ERY SATURDAY.  INCRG VERT SHEAR ASSOCD WITH AMPLIFYING SHRTWV TROF...ALG WITH PRESENCE OF GULF AIR SUGS THAT SYS WL RMN SVR THRUT THE NGT...WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR TORNADOES IN ADDN TO STRAIGHT LN WNDS. 

...LWR MO VLY TO MID MS VLY/LWR GRT LKS...
AFTN HTG...COUPLED WITH STG MIDLVL CD ADVTN...MODEST SFC DWPTS AND LOLVL CNVGNC ASSOCD WITH DVLPG SFC LO WL CREATE FVRBL ENVIRONMENT FOR LO-TOPPED TSTMS WITH HAIL LTR TDA THRU ERY TNGT OVR PARTS OF MO/IL/XTRM SRN IA.  OTHER SVR TSTMS...PRIMARILY WITH THE THREAT OF HI WNDS...PSBL LTR TNGT THRU ERY SATURDAY EWD INTO ERN IL/IND/OH AND PERHAPS SRN MI.  THIS ACTVTY WL BE ASSOCD WITH EXIT RGN OF APCHG MIDLVL SPD MAX.  SVR COVERAGE IN THIS AREA WL OF COURSE BE AFFECTED BY CNVTV EVOLUTION FARTHER S ACRS THE MID MS/LWR OH/TN RVR VLY RGN.     

A PWO WILL BE ISSUED AT 1100 AM CDT FOR PARTS OF THE S CNTRL U.S.

..CORFIDI.. 05/02/97