ZCZC MKCSWODY1 000
ACUS1 KMKC 021911
-MKC AC 021911

CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK...REF AFOS NMCGPH94O.

VALID 021900Z - 031200Z

REF WW NUMBER 0232...VALID TIL 0000Z
REF WW NUMBER 0233...VALID TIL 0000Z

THERE IS A HIGH RISK OF SVR TSTMS THIS AFTN AND THIS EVE OVR PARTS OF CNTRL/ERN MS AND NRN/CNTRL AL...TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 30 WNW MSL 25 W CHA RMG CSG LUL JAN 30 SW GWO 30 WNW MSL.

THERE IS A MDT RISK OF SVR TSTMS THIS AFTN AND EVE OVR PARTS OF NRN LA...MUCH OF AR...SERN MO...SRN IL...SRN IND...WRN KY...WRN/MID TN...AND NRN MS..TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM SHV 35 SE PGO HRO SLO BMG SDF BWG CHA CSG LUL POE SHV.

THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 35 SW GLS TPL PRX MKO OJC BRL CGX DTW CLE HTS AND MCN AQQ.

GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM PSX 25 WSW AUS ABI OKC PNC P28 CAO GUC BPI 50 WNW CTB ...CONT... 60 NW GGW CDR BBW SUX RST 35 SE OSC ...CONT... 25 NW SYR HGR GSO AGS 20 E AQQ.

WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS LARGE UPR TROF OVR KS/NEB...WITH SERIES OF VORT MAXIMA ROTATING ACRS OK/TX/AR/MO.  PROFILERS SHOW 80-90 KT MID LVL WINDS NOW XTNDG EWD INTO PARTS OF AR/MO...WHICH ARE FCST TO SPREAD EWD ACRS THE TN VLY DURG THE EVE.  VRY STG LOW LVL FLOW IS STILL IN PLACE ACRS THE OH/TN VLYS RESULTING IN IMPRESSIVE LOW LVL HELICITY AND DEEP LYR SHEAR PROFILES.  DEEP GULF MSTR CONTS TO ADVECT RAPIDLY NWD WITH MID 60S DWPNTS NOW AS FAR N AS SRN IL. FURTHER DESTABILIZATION SHUD OCCUR THRU THE EVE AS MID LVL COOLING SWEEPS INTO AREA.

LN OF STORMS CONTS TO INCR ALG OLD OUTFLOW BNDRY XTNDG FROM NRN LA INTO NRN MS.  AMS S OF BNDRY IS VRY UNSTBL WITH LI/S OF -7 TO -9 AND CAPE VALUES EXCEEDING 3000 J/KG.  ALSO...18Z JAN SNDG SHOWS STEEP LAPSE RATES AND WEAK CAPPING INVERSION RESTRAINING DEEP CNVTN FROM DVLPG FARTHER S.  OBSERVED AND FCST HODOGRAPHS SHOW HELICITY VALUES OF 200-300 J/KG AND FAVORABLE STORM-RELATIVE PARAMETERS. COMBINATION OF FURTHER SFC HTG AND UVVS ARE XPCD TO WKN CAP LATER THIS AFTN AND ERY EVE RESULTING IN RAPID CNVTV DVLPMT.  SUPERCELLS AND TORNADOES APPR LIKELY IN THIS AREA...SO AREA HAS BEEN UPGRADED TO HIGH RISK.

ANOTHER LN OF STG/SVR CNVTN HAS DVLPD ACRS AR/MO WHICH SHUD MOV QUICKLY EWD INTO THE TN/OH VLYS DURG THE AFTN/EVE.  LN IS AHD OF STG MID LVL VORT MAX AND BENEATH CORE OF MID LVL JET.  SHEAR IS SUF FOR SUPERCELLS AND TORNADOES WITH THIS ACTIVITY...BUT LIMITED INSTBY AND LINEAR FORCING SUG THAT LEWP/BOW ECHOES AND ASSOCD DMGG WINDS WILL BE PRIMARY THREAT.

DEEP MSTR AND VRY UNSTBL AMS XTND SWWD INTO PARTS OF ERN TX AND SERN OK.  LOW LVL WINDS ARE SLOWLY VEERING IN THIS AREA...BUT THREAT REMAINS FOR ISOLD SVR TSTM DVLPMT WITH LARGE HAIL AND DMGG WINDS.

FINALLY...RAPID DESTABILIZATION IS OCCURRING OVR PARTS OF NERN OK/EXTRM ERN KS/WRN MO/WRN AR AS UPR TROF AND ASSOCD MID LVL COLD POOL APCHS.  SUF RESIDUAL LOW LVL MSTR IS PRESENT FOR ISOLD STG/SVR TSTMS WITH HAIL AND GUSTY/DMGG WINDS.

..HART.. 05/02/97