-MKC AC 011857

CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK...REF AFOS NMCGPH94O.

VALID 011900Z - 021200Z

REF WW NUMBER 547 VALID TIL 0000Z.

THERE CONTINUES TO BE A HIGH RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS PARTS OF EASTERN SOUTH DAKOTA...NORTHEAST NEBRASKA...CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN MINNESOTA...NORTHERN AND CENTRAL IOWA AND SOUTHWEST WISCONSIN.  THE HIGH RISK AREA IS RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 15 SW BRD EAU 15 W MSN MLI 25 E OTM 25 ENE OMA OFK 20 SW MHE 15 W ATY 40 WNW AXN 15 SW BRD.

SURROUNDING THE HIGH RISK AREA...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 15 E OMA 25 WNW OLU 20 WSW VTN 20 ESE RAP 35 E REJ 45 NE Y26 20 S GFK 15 W D45 ...CONT... 75 NW CMX 25 NE RHI 15 E OSH 20 ENE MMO 30 ESE BRL 3OI 15 E OMA.

THERE ALSO IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 15 SSW EVV 25 W BNA 30 NNW BHM 25 SSW CBM 20 SW GWO 45 NE PBF 20 SE UNO 45 E VIH BLV 15 SSW EVV.

GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM PSX HOU 40 N BPT 35 NE SHV 10 NE FYV 25 ESE CNU EMP 20 NE RSL 30 SE IML 25 SE BFF 25 S 4DG 25 NW BPI 15 E BYI 40 SE 4LW 40 WSW RDM 35 E BLI...CONT... 15 E MSS 25 SSW MSV WAL.

...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM FORECAST DISCUSSION...
VIGOROUS SHRTWV TROF CONTS TO MOV ENEWD INTO NWRN SD ATTM.  SFC ANALYSIS INDCS CYCLOGENESIS CONTS OVR NWRN SD AS SFC TROF/CDFNTL BNDRY HAS PUSHED EWD INTO S CNTRL SD AND CNTRL NEB. ADDL RAOBS WERE TAKEN AT 18Z ACRS PTNS OF THE MO VLY...AND DATA INDCS VERY STG CAPPING INVERSION /6 DEG C...246 J/KG STRENGTH/ NEWD INTO ERN NEB/SWRN IA.  CNVTV BNDRYS EXTD ACRS NERN AND CNTRL SD IN ASSOCN WITH TSTM CLUSTER MOVG EWD ACRS THE ERN THIRD OF SD.  PROFILER DATA INDCS 40-50 KT JET AT H85 FM N CNTRL OK NWD THRU ERN KS INTO CNTRL IA WITH 60 KT H5 FLO ACRS SERN WY.  THUS...STG VERT SHEAR PROFILE IS IN PLACE ACRS SD INTO MN AND IA.  AMS IS VERY UNSTBL AHD OF ADVNG CDFNTL BNDRY WITH CAPES OF 4000 J/KG FM THE LWR MO VLY NWD INTO MN...18Z RAOB DATA FM MPX INDCS CAPE OF 4315 J/KG AND AN LI OF -10.

THUS...CONT TO EXPC SIGNIFICANT SVR WX EVENT ACRS PTNS OF THE MO VLY.  SVR TSTMS ARE EXPCD FM ERN SD EWD INTO CNTRL AND SRN MN INTO NRN AND CNTRL IA THRU TNT AS MID LVL SHRTWV TROF MOVS EWD ACRS THE NRN PLNS.  ACTVTY HAS BEEN MOVG EWD ACRS ERN SD ATTM...AND THIS ACTVTY CUD INTSFY IN THE NXT SVRL HRS AS IT MOVS INTO SRN MN WHERE THE AMS IS SO UNSTBL AND WHERE LO LVL JET IS ENTERING.  ALSO...AREA NR MID LVL VORT MAX MOVG INTO NWRN SD NEEDS TO BE WATCHED AS THIS IS MORE RELATED TO SFC LO AND MAXIMUM LO LVL CNVGNC.  STG VERT SHEAR PROFILE SUPPORTS TORNADIC STMS ACRS ERN SD INTO PTNS OF MN AND NWRN IA THRU ERY TNT...THEN AS ACTVTY BEGINS MOVG EWD/SEWD ACRS MN INTO IA BOW ECHO ACTVTY WITH ISOLATED TORNADOES ARE EXPCD THRU THE RMNDR OF THE PERIOD.

..MCCARTHY.. 07/01/97