SPC DAY-1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK

10 Feb 1998 - 15:12:22 UTC 

ZCZC MKCSWODY1 000
ACUS1 KMKC 101512
MKC AC 101512

CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK...REF AFOS NMCGPH94O.

VALID 101500Z - 111200Z

REF WW NUMBER 0026...VALID TIL 1600Z
REF WW NUMBER 0027...VALID TIL 2100Z

THERE IS A HIGH RISK OF SVR TSTMS OVER PARTS OF SERN TX...CNTRL AND
SRN LA...SRN MS...AND SWRN AL. THE HIGH RISK AREA IS TO THE RGT OF
A LN FROM 25 WSW GLS 30 N HOU 20 SW LFK 40 NW POE 30 NNE HEZ 30 NNW
LUL 40 SE MEI 20 WNW PNS.

THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM
20 E CRP 25 E COT 10 E SAT 20 ESE ACT PRX 40 E FSM 20 E JBR
45 WSW BNA 35 W CHA AUO PFN.

GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 30 S CRP 45 NW LRD
DRT 15 SSW BWD 30 W MLC UMN SGF 45 SSE SZL 15 WNW SZL 15 NNE MKC
FNB 30 N FNB 50 E OMA DSM 25 S CID 20 SE MLI 20 SW LAF LUK
35 E LEX 25 SE TYS 35 WNW CTY.

GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 50 E BLI 45 E PDX
25 WSW LMT 40 NW UKI.

VIGOROUS UPPER TROUGH OVER THE SOUTHERN ROCKIES/SOUTHERN HIGH
PLAINS IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE DIGGING SOUTHEASTWARD INTO TODAY
BEFORE TURNING EASTWARD ACROSS TEXAS. SYSTEM IS FORECAST TO BECOME
NEGATIVELY TILTED THIS AFTERNOON ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PLAINS AND
MOVE TOWARD THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY TONIGHT. SURFACE LOW WILL
LIKELY CONSOLIDATE OVER EAST TEXAS THIS AFTERNOON THEN DEEPEN AS IT
MOVES NORTHEASTWARD INTO ARKANSAS TONIGHT IN RESPONSE TO INCREASING
UPPER LEVEL DIVERGENCE ASSOCIATED WITH UPPER TROUGH. VERY STRONG
DYNAMIC FORCING AND INCREASING INSTABILITY AND VERTICAL SHEAR
SUGGEST POTENTIAL FOR SIGNIFICANT SEVERE WEATHER EPISODE.

STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS ARE CURRENTLY EXTENDING FROM SOUTH CENTRAL
TEXAS INTO ARKANSAS. ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP EASTWARD INTO
SOUTHEAST TEXAS AND WESTERN LOUISIANA THIS AFTERNOON...THEN
ACCELERATE EASTWARD TONIGHT ACROSS THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. 
VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS LIMITED CLOUDS FROM SOUTHEAST TEXAS
INTO LOUISIANA SUGGESTING STRONG DIURNAL HEATING WILL OCCUR. LOW
LEVEL  MOISTURE IS EXPECTED TO SPREAD NORTHWARD FROM THE GULF WITH
60-65F DEW POINTS MOVING INTO TEXAS AND SOUTHERN LOUISIANA AS VERY
STRONG LOW LEVEL JET /50-70 KT/ DEVELOPS. AIR MASS WILL BECOME
MODERATELY UNSTABLE WITH CAPE OF 1500-2000 J/KG. WINDS ARE
FORECAST TO VEER AND INCREASE WITH HEIGHT IN THE LOW LEVELS WITH
VERY STRONG VERTICAL SHEAR AND HELICITY FORECAST. FAVORABLE STORM-
RELATIVE FLOW SUGGESTS POTENTIAL FOR TORNADIC SUPERCELL DEVELOPMENT
...ESPECIALLY IN THE HIGH RISK AREA THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT. 
LEWP FORMATION ALONG THE SQUALL LINE ALSO INDICATES THREAT FOR
DAMAGING WIND GUSTS WITH CONTINUED THREAT FOR LARGE HAIL.

OTHER SEVERE STORMS ARE EXPECTED TO SPREAD FROM NORTHERN LOUISIANA
AND ARKANSAS TOWARD PARTS OF THE TENNESSEE VALLEY LATE THIS
AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT...WITH PRIMARY THREAT BEING DAMAGING WINDS
AND LARGE HAIL IN THESE AREAS.     
 
..WEISS.. 02/10/98

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