PUBLIC SEVERE WEATHER OUTLOOK
STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
6 AM CDT WEDNESDAY APRIL 15 1998

...OUTBREAK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WITH TORNADOES...DAMAGING WINDS AND LARGE HAIL EXPECTED FOR LARGE PARTS OF THE LOWER MISSOURI...MID MISSISSIPPI AND OHIO VALLEYS...

THE STORM PREDICTION CENTER IN NORMAN OKLAHOMA IS FORECASTING THE DEVELOPMENT OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WITH A FEW INTENSE TORNADOES...DAMAGING WINDS AND LARGE HAIL FOR PARTS OF THE LOWER MISSOURI...MID MISSISSIPPI AND OHIO VALLEYS THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT.

THE AREAS MOST LIKELY TO EXPERIENCE THIS ACTIVITY INCLUDE:
MUCH OF ILLINOIS AND INDIANA...PARTS OF EASTERN AND SOUTHERN MISSOURI...WESTERN AND CENTRAL KENTUCKY...WESTERN TENNESSEE...SOUTHWESTERN OHIO AND NORTHERN ARKANSAS.

A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM CURRENTLY NEAR THE CENTRAL KANSAS AND OKLAHOMA BORDER IS EXPECTED TO INTENSIFY AND MOVE NORTHEASTWARD TODAY IN RESPONSE TO THE APPROACH FROM THE WEST OF A VERY STRONG JET STREAM AND UPPER TROUGH. A STRONG SOUTHERLY FLOW EAST OF THE LOW WILL SPREAD A VERY MOIST AND INCREASINGLY UNSTABLE AIR MASS NORTHWARD INTO THE LOWER MISSOURI AND MID MISSISSIPPI VALLEYS BY THIS AFTERNOON.

SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THAT OCCURRED ON TUESDAY OVER PORTIONS OF THE CENTRAL PLAINS HAVE WEAKENED OVERNIGHT. HOWEVER GIVEN THE VERY FAVORABLE PARAMETERS THAT WILL BE COMING INTO PLACE BY EARLY AFTERNOON...RAPID REDEVELOPMENT OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ARE FORECASTED TO TAKE PLACE ACROSS EASTERN MISSOURI INTO ILLINOIS.

THE STRONG MID/UPPER JET UPWARDS TO 150 KT AT 35000 FEET IN CONCERT WITH THE EXPECTED 50 KT SOUTHERLY LOW LEVEL JET WILL PROVIDE CONDITIONS VERY FAVORABLE FOR SUPERCELLS AND TORNADOES. WITH SUCH AN UNSTABLE AIR MASS AS TEMPERATURES RISE TO NEAR 80F SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP AND SPREAD RAPIDLY NORTH AND EAST ACROSS MISSOURI INTO THE MID MISSISSIPPI VALLEY LATER THIS AFTERNOON AND CONTINUE VERY ACTIVE ACROSS THE WESTERN OHIO VALLEY AND FURTHER SOUTH INTO KENTUCKY...TENNESSEE AND NORTHERN ARKANSAS EARLY TONIGHT. A VERY FAVORABLE VERTICAL WIND STRUCTURE FOR SUPER CELLS IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP ACROSS SOUTHEASTERN MISSOURI...SOUTHERN ILLINOIS AND SOUTHWESTERN INDIANA WHERE THERE IS A PARTICULARLY HIGH RISK OF TORNADOES AND SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR LARGE TORNADOES.

THIS AFTERNOON DAMAGING WINDS AND LARGE HAIL WILL BECOME A WIDESPREAD THREAT ACROSS MUCH OF THE SEVERE OUTLOOK AREA CONTINUING WELL INTO THE NIGHTTIME HOURS.

THIS IS A POTENTIALLY DANGEROUS WEATHER SITUATION. THOSE IN THE THREATENED AREAS ARE URGED TO REVIEW SEVERE WEATHER SAFETY RULES... AND LISTEN TO RADIO...TV...OR NOAA WEATHER RADIO FOR LATER WATCHES ...WARNINGS AND STATEMENTS.

...JACK HALES...
STORM PREDICTION CENTER