31 May 1998 - 10:32:05 UTC 


ZCZC MKCSWODY1 000
ACUS1 KMKC 311032 
SWODY1 
MKC AC 311032
 
CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK...REF AFOS NMCGPH94O.
 
VALID 311200Z - 011200Z
 
REF WW NUMBER 0474...VALID TIL 1400Z 

THERE IS A HIGH RISK OF SVR TSTMS OVER PARTS OF NORTHERN 
PENNSYLVANIA...MOST OF NEW YORK...WESTERN MASSACHUSETTS...AND 
WESTERN VERMONT. THE HIGH RISK AREA IS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 
15 W EFK 15 S RUT 20 W BAF 15 E AVP DUJ ERI.
 
SURROUNDING THE HIGH RISK AREA...THERE IS A MDT RISK OF SVR TSTMS 
OVER MUCH OF NEW HAMPSHIRE...THE REMAINDER OF VERMONT...MOST OF 
MASSACHUSETTS...CONNECTICUT...NORTHERN NEW JERSEY...PENNSYLVANIA... 
EXTREME SOUTHEASTERN MICHIGAN...A LARGE PART OF OHIO...SOUTHEASTERN 
INDIANA...MOST OF KENTUCKY...AND NORTHERN TENNESSEE. THE MDT RISK 
AREA IS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 35 N BML 20 W BOS 20 WSW GON 
TTN 15 SE LBE 20 NW PKB 40 NW HTS JKL 30 W TRI TYS 20 SE BNA 35 S 
CKV 40 NE DYR 15 N PAH EVV 10 S MIE 25 WSW FDY DTW.
 
SURROUNDING THE MDT RISK AREA...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS 
TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 25 E ECG 35 NE RWI 25 SSW ROA AVL CHA 
20 N MSL 20 NE MEM ARG 15 WNW CGI 20 W MTO 20 NW LAF 20 N FWA 20 
ESE LAN 50 N MTC. 

GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 35 SW HUM GPT 45 SSW 
SEM 25 S AUO ANB 20 S MSL UOX 30 ESE PGO MLC 20 NW MKO UMN JEF UIN 
CID 20 SSW MCW 30 NNW OMA 10 N GRI 25 SE MCK 50 ENE 4LJ 20 W LIC 
LAR 15 SE RKS SLC U31 35 WSW BIH 15 N SAC 30 W MHS 30 ESE SLE PDT 
30 E EPH 45 ENE BLI ...CONT... 35 NNE CTB LWT 30 SSE MLS 25 ESE REJ 
15 ESE P05 40 SW MHE 30 NE FSD AXN TVF 65 W D45.
 
SIGNIFICANT SEVERE WEATHER OUTBREAK EXPECTED ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE 
NORTHEAST U.S. THIS PERIOD. PUBLIC SEVERE WEATHER OUTLOOK /AFOS 
PRODUCT PWOMKC/ WILL BE ISSUED BY 11Z. LATEST SATELLITE/RADAR DATA 
SHOW A MASSIVE COMPLEX OF THUNDERSTORMS MOVING RAPIDLY EASTWARD 
THROUGH THE CENTRAL GREAT LAKES REGION. THIS ACTIVITY WILL 
CONTINUE ACROSS SOUTHEASTERN ONTARIO INTO WESTERN NEW YORK LATER ON 
THIS MORNING/EARLY AFTERNOON. 

...FOR THE PERIOD 31/12Z THROUGH 01/03Z... 

...NORTHEASTERN U.S... 
INTENSE LINE OF THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUES TO MOVE RAPIDLY EASTWARD 
THROUGH LOWER MICHIGAN INTO SOUTHEASTERN ONTARIO. THIS ACTIVITY 
CONTINUES AHEAD OF A STRONG UPPER LEVEL TROUGH CURRENTLY DROPPING 
SOUTHEASTWARD THROUGH MANITOBA. LATEST SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWS VERY 
STRONG PRESSURE FALLS ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN GREAT LAKES. 
COLD FRONT WAS LOCATED FROM NORTHERN LOWER MICHIGAN SOUTHWESTWARD 
THROUGH NORTHERN ILLINOIS INTO WESTERN KANSAS. A WARM FRONT 
EXTENDED EASTWARD ACROSS SOUTHEASTERN ONTARIO INTO CENTRAL 
PENNSYLVANIA. AS SURFACE PRESSURE CONTINUES TO FALL ACROSS THE 
EASTERN GREAT LAKES...THE WARM FRONT SHOULD LIFT RAPIDLY NORTHWARD 
THROUGH PENNSYLVANIA INTO NEW YORK. AS THIS HAPPENS...AN 
INCREASINGLY UNSTABLE AIRMASS WILL SPREAD INTO THE AREA. 
FORECAST WIND PROFILES SHOW VERY STRONG WINDS ACROSS MUCH OF THE 
AREA. THESE SOUNDINGS SUGGEST MODEST VEERING IN THE LOW LEVELS... 
BUT THIS VEERING WILL LIKELY BE ENHANCED IN THE VICINITY OF THE 
WARM FRONT...SUGGESTING A FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT FOR TORNADO 
DEVELOPMENT BY EARLY AFTERNOON. EXPECT THE DERECHO THAT IS 
CURRENTLY MOVING ACROSS LOWER MICHIGAN WILL CONTINUE ACROSS 
SOUTHEASTERN ONTARIO AND INTO THE NORTHEAST. WIND GUSTS IN EXCESS 
OF 80 TO 100 MPH HAVE BEEN OBSERVED WITH THE STORMS AS THEY MOVED 
THROUGH THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY AND GREAT LAKES REGION...VERY 
STRONG WINDS CAN BE EXPECTED WITH THIS COMPLEX AS IT MOVES INTO NEW 
YORK AND PENNSYLVANIA. ADDITIONAL STORMS ARE LIKELY TO DEVELOP IN 
THE VICINITY OF THE WARM FRONT DURING THE AFTERNOON...AND SOME OF 
THESE STORMS WILL LIKELY PRODUCE TORNADOES. 
THIS ACTIVITY SHOULD MOVE RAPIDLY EASTWARD THROUGH THE AFTERNOON... 
AND MOVE OFFSHORE THIS EVENING. 

...TENNESSEE AND OHIO VALLEYS... 
SURFACE FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE RAPIDLY EASTWARD THROUGH THE 
TENNESSEE AND OHIO VALLEYS. THE AIRMASS AHEAD OF THE FRONT IN THIS 
REGION IS FORECAST TO BE WARM AND VERY UNSTABLE THIS AFTERNOON. 
WITH TEMPERATURES IN THE 90S AND DEWPOINTS IN THE 70S...EXPECT 
SURFACE BASED CAPE VALUES SHOULD BE IN THE 2000 TO 4000 J/KG RANGE. 
STRONG CONVERGENCE IN THE VICINITY OF THE FRONT SHOULD BE 
SUFFICIENT FOR SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON. A STRONG 
NORTHWESTERLY MID LEVEL JET /50 TO 60 KNOTS AT 500 MB/ IS FORECAST 
TO DIVE SOUTHEASTWARD THROUGH THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON. THE 
RESULTING WIND PROFILES WOULD INDICATE A POTENTIAL FOR DAMAGING 
GUSTS. ALSO...GIVEN THE DEGREE OF INSTABILITY...SOME LARGE HAIL IS 
ALSO POSSIBLE WITH SOME OF THE STRONGER CELLS. 

...FOR THE PERIOD 01/03Z THROUGH 01/12Z... 

...TENNESSEE VALLEY... 
STORMS THAT DEVELOP THIS AFTERNOON ACROSS WESTERN SECTIONS OF THE 
OUTLOOK AREA ARE LIKELY TO EVOLVE INTO A MORE LINEAR SYSTEM OR MCS 
AS WIND PROFILES EXHIBIT MORE UNIDIRECTIONAL CHARACTERISTICS. THE 
ACTIVITY SHOULD BEGIN TO DIMINISH LATE IN THE PERIOD AS THE AIRMASS 
STABILIZES...AND THE STORMS MOVE ACROSS THE SOUTHERN END OF THE 
APPALACHIANS. 

..REHBEIN/HALES.. 05/31/98
 
GRAPHICAL DEPICTIONS OF THE TWO FORECAST PERIODS FOR THE 11Z 
OUTLOOK ARE AVAILABLE ON THE WORLD WIDE WEB AT 
HTTP://WWW.NSSL.NOAA.GOV/~SPC 

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