SPC DAY-1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK

08 Apr 1999 - 19:58:11 UTC 

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ZCZC MKCSWODY1 000
ACUS1 KMKC 081958
MKC AC 081958

CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK...REF AFOS NMCGPH94O.

VALID 082000Z - 091200Z

REF WW NUMBER 0134...VALID TIL 0000Z

THERE IS A HIGH RISK OF SVR TSTMS THROUGH THIS EVENING FOR MOST OF
WRN/SRN IA...NRN MO...AND EXTREME W CENTRAL IL TO THE RIGHT OF A
LINE FROM 45 SE OJC STJ 15 NW SUX 30 W 3SE 30 S MCW 25 ESE CID 40
ESE BRL 45 NNW ALN STL 20 ENE VIH 45 SSE SZL 45 SE OJC.

THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM
25 W ZZV 30 E 5I3 20 NNE SPA 35 W CAE 25 SE AGS 65 E MCN 20 N MCN
35 WSW CHA 35 SW MKL 20 SW TXK 25 NNE ACT 20 WNW MWL 30 ENE ADM
20 ENE TUL 40 WSW OJC 15 NE FNB 15 WSW LNK 30 NNW EAR 35 SSW ANW
30 NNE ANW 30 NW FSD 30 SE RWF 10 E LSE 20 E MKE 15 SW JXN
35 NW MFD 25 W ZZV.

GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 15 NE ERI 20 SE DUJ
45 SSE CHO 15 NW GSB 15 ENE ILM ...CONT... 50 SSE JAX 55 NW AYS
20 NNE LGC 35 NNW TCL ELD 25 SW TXK 30 NE ACT 20 W MWL 25 NE ADM
15 NE TUL 35 SSE TOP 35 S FNB 30 SSE HSI 10 SE LBF 45 WNW VTN
35 ENE PIR 40 NE ATY 45 NE MSP GRB MBS 35 NE MTC.

GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 25 SSW PSM 35 S RUT
30 SSE SLK 20 NNE PBG 20 N BML 30 WSW 47B.

GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 45 NNW UKI RBL
55 E MHS 45 ENE 4LW 25 W BKE 60 SSW S80 45 NW SUN 10 NW TWF
30 WNW EKO 35 E NFL 65 NNW BIH 30 W BIH 55 N BFL 45 WNW BFL
30 WSW PRB.

...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM FORECAST DISCUSSION...

...OUTBREAK OF SUPERCELLS WITH STRONG TORNADOES EXPECTED THIS
AFTERNOON AND EVENING ACROSS WRN/SRN IA AND NRN MO...

...EXTREME ERN NEB/NE KS/SRN AND WRN IA/NRN MO AREA...
LATEST RADAR AND VISIBLE IMAGERY SHOWS A BROKEN BAND OF DEVELOPING
SUPERCELLS ON THE DRYLINE NEAR THE MO RIVER. THE 18Z
SOUNDING FROM TOP SHOWED EXTREMELY STRONG VERTICAL SHEAR /BRN SHEAR
NEAR 190 M2/S2 AND ESTIMATED 0-3 KM SRH VALUES AROUND 500 M2/S2/
AND SUBSTANTIAL SURFACE-BASED CAPE /IN EXCESS OF 3000 J/KG/. 
VERTICAL SHEAR IS NOT QUITE AS EXTREME OVER ERN NEB...WHERE 
TORNADIC SUPERCELLS HAVE BEEN QUICKER TO DEVELOP/ORGANIZE.  

EXPECT THE DRYLINE TO CONTINUE TO SURGE ENEWD TOWARD NW MO AND SW
IA THIS AFTERNOON...WITH SUPERCELL DEVELOPMENT EXPECTED TO INCREASE
SWD DOWN THE DRYLINE TOWARD NW MO. GIVEN THE VERY STRONG VERTICAL
SHEAR E OF THE DRYLINE AND ALONG THE WARM FRONT...1500-3000 J/KG
SURFACE-BASED CAPE...AND RELATIVELY WEAK CONVECTIVE INHIBITION/LOW
LFC HEIGHTS...EXPECT THE THREAT FOR TORNADIC SUPERCELLS TO INCREASE
DURING THE AFTERNOON. THE COMBINATION OF PARAMETERS APPEARS
SUPPORTIVE OF A FEW STRONG/POSSIBLY VIOLENT TORNADOES...SOME OF
WHICH COULD BE LONG-LIVED...FROM THE MO RIVER EWD ACROSS WRN/SRN IA
AND NRN MO THROUGH THIS EVENING. 

...SRN MO/AR/ERN OK/N TX AREA...
AVAILABLE 18Z SOUNDINGS FROM SGF AND LIT STILL SHOW A RELATIVELY
STRONG CAP OVER SRN MO AND AR...AND THIS CAP LIKELY EXTENDS SWWD
OVER MOST OF ERN OK AND N TX. IN ADDITION...WIDESPREAD MID/HIGH
CLOUDS ARE INHIBITING SURFACE HEATING OVER MUCH OF AR/SRN MO. THE
ONLY AREA OF A POTENTIALLY WEAKER CAP IS ALONG THE DRYLINE IN N
CENTRAL TX WHERE SURFACE TEMPERATURES HAVE WARMED TO THE MID/UPPER
80S AND DEWPOINTS REMAIN IN THE UPPER 60S. IF ISOLATED STORMS CAN
DEVELOP THIS AREA DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON...LARGE HAIL WILL BE
POSSIBLE.

...ERN TN/KY SWD TO ERN GA...
AN AXIS OF 2500-3000 J/KG SURFACE BASED CAPE AND MINIMAL CONVECTIVE
INHIBITION EXISTS FROM CENTRAL/ERN KY TO ERN GA. THIS
INSTABILITY...COMBINED WITH SUBSTANTIAL MID LEVEL SPEED SHEAR...MAY
SUPPORT A FEW ORGANIZED STORMS WITH ISOLATED LARGE HAIL THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON.
 
..THOMPSON.. 04/08/99

EXPERIMENTAL PROBABILITY GRAPHICS ARE UPDATED FOR THE DAY 1
CONVECTIVE OUTLOOKS AT 1300 AND 2000 UTC AND CAN BE FOUND ON THE
SPC WEB PAGE AT: WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV/PRODUCTS/

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