SPC DAY-1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK

04 May 1999 - 19:39:12 UTC 
  

ZCZC MKCSWODY1 000
ACUS1 KMKC 041939
MKC AC 041939

CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK...REF AFOS NMCGPH94O.

VALID 042000Z - 051200Z

REF WW NUMBER 208 VALID TIL 2000Z.
REF WW NUMBER 209 VALID TIL 0000Z.
REF WW NUMBER 210 VALID TIL 0200Z.

THERE IS A HIGH RISK OF SVR TSTMS THROUGH TONIGHT ACROSS A SMALL
PART OF SOUTH CENTRAL MO...MUCH OF AR...PARTS OF NERN TX INTO NWRN
LA. THE HIGH RISK IS RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 35 SSE SHV 20 SSE TYR 45
ESE DAL 40 WSW PRX 40 ENE DUA 35 ENE MLC 15 S UMN 10 NNW UNO 20 N
ARG 60 WSW MEM 35 W GLH 25 WSW MLU 55 NW ESF 35 SSE SHV.

SURROUNDING THE HIGH RISK...THERE IS A MDT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS
MUCH OF SRN MO SWD INTO NERN TX AND NRN LA AS WELL AS A SMALL PART
OF WRN TN AND NWRN MS. THE MDT RISK AREA IS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE
FROM 45 E LFK 40 NNE CLL 10 ESE ACT 10 SSE DAL 15 ENE DUA 25 NNE
MLC 45 SW JLN 50 SSW SZL 15 ENE JEF BLV 20 W PAH 15 NW UOX 35 SW
GWO 30 WNW HEZ 15 SW ESF 45 E LFK.

THERE IS ALSO A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM
25 NW LCH 30 S AUS 30 NW AUS 45 S SEP 20 ESE FTW 25 WSW MLC
20 NE TUL 30 SW ICT 45 ENE DDC 60 WSW HLC 20 ESE MHN 40 ESE Y26
JMS 50 SSE FAR RWF 20 WNW ALO 10 E CMI 30 WSW BNA 20 NNW BHM
25 NE LUL 30 NNE LFT 25 NW LCH.

GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 55 NNW ELO
15 ESE RHI 25 NNW FWA 40 ESE LUK 25 NNE TYS 15 ENE LGC 20 SE PNS
...CONT... 40 ENE CRP 10 SW LRD ...CONT... 30 SSE DRT MWL
35 ENE OKC 20 SSW END 35 SSE GAG 40 N AMA 30 NW CAO 30 SSE PUB
35 WNW LIC 40 E CYS 30 SSE CDR 45 SSE PHP 20 WNW PIR 35 SSE BIS
50 NNE MOT.


...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM FORECAST DISCUSSION...
ANOTHER DAY OF DANGEROUS STORMS CONTINUE TO DEVELOP AND INTENSIFY
ACROSS PARTS OF THE ARKLATEX INTO CENTRAL AR. LATEST MESOSCALE
ANALYSIS AT 18Z SHOWS SURFACE DRYLINE FROM CENTRAL KS SEWD/SWD
THROUGH CENTRAL OK AND NORTH CENTRAL TX SWWD ACROSS THE MID RIO
GRANDE VALLEY. SQUALL LINE OF SEVERE STORMS EXTENDS AHEAD OF THE
DRYLINE FROM SERN KS INTO THE DFW METROPLEX...WITH SEVERAL
SUPERCELL STORMS OCCURRING OVER WEST CENTRAL AR SWWD INTO NERN TX. 

AIR MASS AHEAD OF THE DRYLINE IS VERY UNSTABLE WITH BEST CAPE
VALUES RANGING FROM 3500 TO 5000 J/KG FROM THE ARKLATEX AREA INTO
PARTS OF CENTRAL TX. THIS AIR MASS EXISTS WITHIN ENVIRONMENT WITH
STRONG DEEP LAYER SHEAR WITH 45-55 KT LOW LEVEL JET EXTENDING NWD
FROM SOUTH CENTRAL LA INTO ERN MO UNDERNEATH EXIT REGION OF MID
LEVEL 80-90 KT JET STREAK ACROSS WEST CENTRAL TX INTO NERN OK AND
SWRN MO. RELATIVE HELICITY VALUES ARE RANGING FROM 400-500 M2/S2
ENHANCING ENVIRONMENT FOR SUPERCELL STORMS AND TORNADOES.

SURFACE LOW OVER NORTH CENTRAL KS IS EXPECTED TO MOVE LITTLE THE
REMAINDER OF THE PERIOD AS MID/UPPER LEVEL LOW SLOWLY CLOSES UP
OVER THE NEB/KS BORDER. COLD FRONTAL BOUNDARY OVER THE OK/TX
PANHANDLE WILL MOVE EWD INTO SERN KS/ERN OK THROUGH TONIGHT PUSHING
SURFACE DRYLINE INTO CENTRAL/ERN AR BY THE END OF THE PERIOD. 
SEVERE STORMS WITH ISOLATED TORNADOES ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE
THROUGH TONIGHT ACROSS PARTS OF ERN AR INTO PARTS OF NORTHERN
LA.
 
..MCCARTHY.. 05/04/99

EXPERIMENTAL PROBABILITY GRAPHICS ARE UPDATED FOR THE DAY 1
CONVECTIVE OUTLOOKS AT 1300 AND 2000 UTC AND CAN BE FOUND ON THE
SPC WEB PAGE AT: WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV/PRODUCTS/

NNNN


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