05 May 1999 - 19:53:50 UTC 

ZCZC MKCSWODY1 000
ACUS1 KMKC 051953
MKC AC 051953

CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK...REF AFOS NMCGPH94O.

VALID 052000Z - 061200Z

REF WW NUMBER 214 VALID TIL 0200Z.
REF WW NUMBER 215 VALID TIL 0200Z.
REF WW NUMBER 216 VALID TIL 0200Z.

THERE IS A HIGH RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS PARTS OF ERN TX...SRN AND
ERN AR...NRN AND CNTRL LA...MUCH OF MS AND NRN AL. THE HIGH RISK
AREA IS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 30 ESE MKL 40 NNW HSV TCL 10
WNW LUL 20 NNW LFT 55 NNE HOU GGG 35 SSW HOT 50 ENE LIT 20 NNW MEM
30 ESE MKL.

EXTENDING NWD AND EWD FROM THE HIGH RISK...THERE IS A MDT RISK OF
SVR TSTMS ACROSS NERN AR...SERN MO...SRN IL...SWRN IN...WRN
KY...WRN AND MIDDLE TN...AND PARTS OF NRN AND CNTRL AL. THE MDT
RISK IS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 25 S MTO 35 W SDF 40 ESE BWG 30
NNW CHA 15 NE GAD 55 SW SEM 15 NNW LFT 55 N HOU GGG 30 WNW LIT 55
WNW CGI 25 S MTO.

THERE IS ALSO A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM
20 ESE PSX 30 E CLL TYR 35 NNE DAL 45 NW MLC JEF 10 W FSD FAR
25 ENE RHI 50 NE MKE 15 S FWA 40 ENE LEX 10 ENE TYS ATL 45 NE DHN
20 W PFN.

GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 15 N ERI 20 N EKN
20 W RIC 15 ENE ECG ...CONT... 50 NNW DAB 30 N PIE ...CONT...
10 S PSX CLL 40 WSW TYR 10 ESE FTW 15 SSW MWL 65 NW ABI TCC
40 ESE TAD 35 SSW 4LJ 35 WNW P28 15 SW EMP 40 NW OMA HON
65 ENE MOT.

...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM FORECAST DISCUSSION...
MID/UPPER LEVEL TROUGH NOW EXTENDS SWD THROUGH THE SRN PLAINS AND
WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE EWD/NEWD INTO THE LOWER MS VALLEY. WATER
VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS SRN BRANCH OF THE MID/UPPER LEVEL JET EWD
ACROSS CENTRAL TX TOWARD NWRN LA. THIS HAS RESULTED IN DIVERGENT
FLOW OVER THE SURFACE DRYLINE THAT EXTENDS FROM SERN OK SWD INTO
EXTREME S TX. LATEST MESOSCALE ANALYSIS SHOW SURFACE MOISTURE AXIS
EXTENDS NWD FROM SERN TX INTO SWRN AR WITH A SECONDARY AXIS FROM
ERN LA INTO CENTRAL MS. SEVERAL CONVECTIVE BOUNDARIES ARE
ASSOCIATED WITH CURRENT CONVECTION FROM ERN AR INTO NWRN LA.

AIR MASS IS VERY UNSTABLE ACROSS EXTREME ERN TX EWD INTO MS AND LA
WHERE SURFACE DEW POINTS ARE IN THE LOW/MID 70S AND MOST UNSTABLE
CAPES ARE BETWEEN 3000 AND 3500 J/KG. SURFACE WINDS ARE SSELY AT
20-25 KT AND VAD WIND PROFILES SUGGEST STORM RELATIVE INFLOW OF 25-
30 KT ACROSS CENTRAL LA. THUS...POTENTIAL DOES EXIST FOR SUPERCELL
STORMS WITH ISOLATED TORNADOES AND LARGE HAIL ASSOCIATED WITH THE
ACTIVITY.

STORMS FURTHER N IN THE MODERATE RISK AREA HAVE THE POTENTIAL FOR
LARGE HAIL AS MID LEVEL COLD AIR ADVECTION COMBINED WITH AVAILABLE
SURFACE HEATING HAS STEEPENED LAPSE RATES. THERE IS SOME
DIRECTIONAL SHEAR PRESENT ACROSS SRN IL AS HELICITY VALUES ARE
APPROACHING 200 M2/S2. THUS...ISOLATED TORNADOES ARE POSSIBLE
ACROSS THIS AREA AS WELL. 
 
..MCCARTHY.. 05/05/99

EXPERIMENTAL PROBABILITY GRAPHICS ARE UPDATED FOR THE DAY 1
CONVECTIVE OUTLOOKS AT 1300 AND 2000 UTC AND CAN BE FOUND ON THE
SPC WEB PAGE AT: WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV/PRODUCTS/

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