MKC AC 061240
 
STORM PREDICTION CENTER...NWS/NCEP...NORMAN OK 
DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK...REF AWIPS GRAPHIC PGWE46 KWBC.
 
VALID 061300Z - 071200Z 

THERE IS A HIGH RISK OF SVR TSTMS THIS AFTN AND EVE ACROSS A LARGE 
PART OF WRN AND CNTRL KS...THE NE TX PNHNDL...AND WRN OK TO THE 
RIGHT OF A LINE FROM MHK EMP PNC LTS 20 E CDS 40 WSW GAG LBL 30 ESE 
GLD 40 N HLC 30 NNW CNK MHK.
 
SURROUNDING THE HIGH RISK AREA...THERE IS A MDT RISK OF SVR TSTMS 
ACROSS SE NEB...KS...THE TX PNHNDL...OK...AND WRN MO TO THE RIGHT 
OF A LINE FROM SPS 50 ESE LBB 50 NE AMA 20 ENE EHA GLD GRI OMA 45 
NW LWD P35 JLN MKO SPS. 

THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 
25 ENE P07 MAF AMA LAA LIC CYS CDR HON MSP OSH JXN CAK PIT MGW CRW 
HTS LUK CMI DEC STL 30 SSE UNO TYR TPL 25 ENE P07. 

GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM HSE RWI JKL BMG SLO 
ARG SHV CLL 40 NW LRD ...CONT... 65 SSW MRF INK CVS 40 WNW ROW ELP
...CONT... 75 SSW GBN IGM U24 MLD BZN 3HT GDV BIS BJI DLH...CONT...
10 SSW ART ALB BOS. 

GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM MFR 10 ESE LMT TVL 
60 ESE BIH NID 35 NNE BFL UKI 20 ESE EKA MFR. 

...CENTRAL PLAINS...
MODELS ARE QUITE SIMILAR WITH REGARD TO THE EVOLUTION OF THE LARGE- 
SCALE UPPER FLOW PATTERN DURING THIS FORECAST PERIOD...AND LATEST 
WATER VAPOR IMAGERY PROVIDES SUPPORT FOR THESE PROGS. SHORT WAVE 
TROUGH CURRENTLY OVER BAJA IS BEGINNING TO ACCELERATE NORTHEASTWARD
...AS UPSTREAM SHORT WAVE DIGS TOWARD THE CALIFORNIA COAST. LEAD 
SYSTEM IS PROGGED TO LIFT INTO THE SOUTHERN ROCKIES BY MID DAY... 
THEN INTO THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS BY LATE AFTERNOON...WITH 100+ KT 
500 MB JET NOSING ACROSS THE TEXAS/OKLAHOMA PANHANDLES. AS SURFACE 
CYCLOGENESIS OCCURS OVER NORTHEAST COLORADO...SOUTHERLY LOW-LEVEL 
JET IS PROGGED TO INTENSIFY IN EXCESS OF 50 KT ALONG AN AXIS FROM 
THE LOWER RIO GRANDE VALLEY INTO KANSAS...CONTRIBUTING TO STRONGLY 
SHEARED ENVIRONMENT THROUGH MUCH OF THE SOUTHERN AND CENTRAL 
PLAINS.
 
MORNING SOUNDINGS INDICATE THERMODYNAMIC ENVIRONMENT ACROSS THIS 
REGION IS ALREADY POTENTIALLY MODERATELY UNSTABLE WITH DEEP LOW- 
LEVEL MOIST LAYER BENEATH DRY MID-LEVEL AIR MASS WITH STEEP LAPSE 
RATES. CAPE RANGES FROM 2000 TO 4000 J/KG AND WILL BE SUPPORTIVE 
OF RAPID INTENSE CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT ALONG THE DRY LINE ACROSS 
THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS...AS FORCING FOR 
UPWARD VERTICAL MOTION INCREASES AHEAD OF UPSTREAM SHORT WAVE. 
INITIAL ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED BETWEEN 18-21Z ACROSS PARTS OF 
SOUTHWEST KANSAS AND THE TEXAS/OKLAHOMA PANHANDLES...WHERE 
INSTABILITY AND VERTICAL SHEAR PROFILES WILL BE SUPPORTIVE OF 
SUPERCELLS WITH VERY LARGE HAIL/DAMAGING WINDS AND A FEW TORNADOES. 
CONVECTION APPEARS LIKELY TO QUICKLY EVOLVE INTO INTENSE SQUALL 
LINE...WHICH SHOULD ACCELERATE EASTWARD/NORTHEASTWARD ACROSS KANSAS 
AND OKLAHOMA INTO THE LOWER MISSOURI VALLEY DURING THE LATE 
AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS.
 
ALL PARAMETERS CONTINUE TO SUGGEST POTENTIAL FOR STRONG TORNADOES...
AT LEAST INITIALLY...BEFORE BROAD SWATH OF DAMAGING WINDS 
GRADUALLY BECOMES PRIMARY THREAT WITH SQUALL LINE. GIVEN MAGNITUDE 
OF CONVECTIVE INSTABILITY AND STRENGTH OF MEAN FLOW ENVIRONMENT...A 
FEW VERY DAMAGING WIND GUSTS WELL IN EXCESS OF 70 KT ARE POSSIBLE 
...PROVIDING POTENTIAL FOR SIGNIFICANT DAMAGE ACROSS PARTS OF 
CENTRAL KANSAS AND OKLAHOMA. INTENSITY OF PEAK WIND GUSTS IS 
EXPECTED TO GRADUALLY DIMINISH WITH CONVECTIVE SYSTEM AS IT RACES 
ACROSS PARTS OF IOWA/MISSOURI/EASTERN OKLAHOMA AND WESTERN ARKANSAS 
TONIGHT. 

...SOUTHWEST AND CENTRAL TEXAS...
DAYTIME HEATING ALONG DRY LINE MAY CONTRIBUTE TO MORE SCATTERED 
CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT SOUTH OF THE TEXAS PANHANDLE INTO PARTS OF 
SOUTHWEST TEXAS...WHERE VERTICAL SHEAR PROFILES WILL BE SUPPORTIVE 
OF TORNADIC SUPERCELLS. ACTIVITY WILL PROGRESS RAPIDLY EASTWARD 
WITH DRY LINE INTO PARTS OF CENTRAL TEXAS...BUT WITH STRONGER 
FORCING FOR UPWARD VERTICAL MOTION SPREADING FROM THE CENTRAL 
PLAINS TOWARD THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY...ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED 
TO WEAKEN WITH LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING. 

...OHIO VALLEY...
LOW-LEVEL WARM ADVECTION ALONG EASTERN PERIPHERY OF SHORT WAVE 
RIDGE CURRENTLY OVER THE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY IS SUPPORTING ONGOING 
THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY...WHICH MAY PERSIST THROUGH MUCH OF THE DAY 
BEFORE GRADUALLY DIMINISHING AS RIDGE SHIFTS EASTWARD. CONVECTIVE 
BOUNDARIES GENERATED BY CONVECTION MAY PROVIDE FOCUS FOR ISOLATED 
STRONG/SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WITH DAYTIME HEATING OF AIR MASS WITH 
MID 60S SURFACE DEW POINTS. SUFFICIENT SHEAR EXISTS BENEATH WEST 
NORTHWESTERLY MID-LEVEL FLOW FOR ISOLATED SUPERCELLS...PRIMARILY 
WITH LARGE HAIL/DAMAGING WIND GUSTS. 

..KERR.. 04/06/01

NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 1 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED FOR 1630Z