ACUS1 KMKC 111316 SWODY1 MKC AC 111253   STORM PREDICTION CENTER...NWS/NCEP...NORMAN OK DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK...REF AWIPS GRAPHIC PGWE46 KWBC.   VALID 111300Z - 121200Z THERE IS A MDT RISK OF SVR TSTMS IN PORTIONS NW IL...CENTRAL/SRN WI...NRN MO...ERN NEB...IA AND SWRN MN...TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM STJ FNB 20 E GRI 40 ESE BUB 50 WNW OFK SPW EAU AUW GRB MTW CGX BMI 40 NNW STL COU STJ. THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ELSEWHERE TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM BUF IPT 35 W CXY EKN LUK 35 SSE BMG EVV PAH DYR MEM 35 SSE PBF TYR 35 WNW TYR 20 W PGO 30 NE MKO EMP BIE HSI EAR BBW 25 NW BUB FSD 20 NNE IWD. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM MSS SLK BID ...CONT... 25 ENE ORF RIC CRW HTS 35 ESE OWB CKV 20 SE GWO HEZ 40 NNW BPT CLL 35 SE TPL ACT DAL MLC TUL 25 W MHK CNK 20 NNW HLC 30 S GLD 55 WSW GLD 40 NE LIC AKO SNY VTN 9V9 HON ATY AXN BRD 90 NW CMX. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM BKE IDA BPI RKS GJT CEZ INW PRC 40 SSW LAS BIH TVL SVE LMT RDM BKE.   --- SYNOPSIS --- LARGE-SCALE MIDDLE/UPPER TROPOSPHERIC PATTERN OVER CONUS WILL CONTINUE TO FEATURE GREAT BASIN/4 CORNERS LONGWAVE TROUGH AND LONGWAVE RIDGE MOVING EWD ACROSS FL...CENTRAL APPALACHIANS AND CENTRAL/ERN GREAT LAKES. INTENSE DEEP-LAYER CYCLONE NOW EVIDENT OVER ERN CO/WRN KS IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE EJECTING NEWD ACROSS CENTRAL PLAINS TODAY...THEN ACROSS ERN MN TOWARD WRN LS BY END OF PERIOD. TRACK OF THIS SYSTEM WELL-HANDLED BY MODELS SO FAR. MID- UPPER LEVEL TROUGH NOW DIGGING SEWD OVER ORE IS EXPECTED TO TURN EWD THROUGH LONGWAVE TROUGH POSITION TONIGHT AS IT CROSSES PORTIONS SERN NV/AZ. AT SURFACE...COMBINATION OF DRYLINE AND WEAK COLD FRONT IS FORECAST TO SURGE EWD AND NEWD TODAY OVER SRN/CENTRAL PLAINS...WHILE WAVY/QUASISTATIONARY FRONTAL ZONE FROM WV WWD TO NRN MO LIFTS NWD AS WARM FRONT. PRONOUNCED MESOLOW ANALYZED OVER WRN IA...SPAWNED WITHIN SEVERE BOW ECHO EARLIER THIS MORNING...IS NOT RESOLVED BY MODELS.   --- CENTRAL PLAINS TO UPPER MS VALLEY/CENTRAL GREAT LAKES --- BAND OR ARC OF INTENSE LOW-MID LEVEL FORCING -- CORRESPONDING TO LEADING EDGE OF SWLY DRY SURGE IN ERN SEMICIRCLE OF CYCLONE -- MAY INITIATE SEVERE CONVECTION LATE THIS MORNING INTO THIS AFTERNOON OVER PORTIONS ERN NEB INTO IA...PERHAPS BUILDING SEWD INTO NRN MO/ IL. NWRN PORTION OF THIS SCENARIO IS SOMEWHAT CONDITIONAL ON DEGREE OF LOW LEVEL AIR MASS RECOVERY IN NARROW WEDGE OF CONVECTIVELY MODIFIED AIR...BEHIND SURFACE MESOLOW. HOWEVER... INTENSE MID LEVEL DESTABLIZATION AND SOME INSOLATION EXPECTED OVER ERN NEB/WRN IA AREA SUGGESTS SBCAPE NEAR 1500 J/KG POSSIBLE WITH SURFACE TEMP/DEW POINT ONLY IN MID 60S/LOW-MID 50S F RESPECTIVELY. RECOVERY IS ALSO UNCERTAIN FARTHER E OVER IL/WI BECAUSE OF EXPECTED LONG DURATION BENEATH CLOUDS/PRECIP TODAY...BUT WILL MAINTAIN MDT RISK FOR NOW BECAUSE OF STRENGTH OF KINEMATIC FIELDS AND EXPECTED LOW LEVEL WAA.   VERTICAL WIND PROFILES ARE PROGGED TO BE NEARLY UNIDIRECTIONAL AHEAD OF FRONTAL/DRYLINE PASSAGE...WITH INTENSE LOW-MID LEVEL FLOWS AND SPEED SHEAR INDICATING THREAT FOR SIGNIFICANT DAMAGING WIND. HOWEVER...FLOW MAY BACK LOCALLY ALONG RESIDUAL BOUNDARIES AND INTERSECTION OF WARM FRONT AND DRY SURGE...CONTRIBUTING TO TORNADO POTENTIAL THROUGH ENHANCED SRH...SR INFLOW...VORTICITY AND ASCENT IN BOUNDARY LAYER. ARC OF CONVECTION WITH DAMAGING WIND AND OCCASIONAL TORNADO THREAT SHOULD LIFT NEWD JUST AHEAD OF CYCLONE THIS EVENING...ACROSS UPPER MS VALLEY AND IL TOWARD WI/MI.   --- ERN TX TO LOWER OH VALLEY --- REF SPC MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 480 AND WW 130 FOR LATEST NOWCAST INFO OVER E OK/AR/NERN TX. SOME WIND DAMAGE THREAT SHOULD EXTEND NEWD THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING ACROSS LOWER OH VALLEY. HOWEVER...AS DEEP- LAYER CYCLONE AND ASSOCIATED LARGE-SCALE FORCING LIFTS NEWD AWAY FRM THIS REGION...EXPECT LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE AND LOW-MID LEVEL VERTICAL SHEAR TO DIMINISH THROUGHOUT TODAY. DIURNAL HEATING AND SURFACE DEW POINTS IN MID-UPPER 60S F WILL BE OFFSET BY MID LEVEL WARMING -- AS EVIDENT IN SHV RAOB -- AND WEAKENING CONVERGENCE NEAR FRONTAL DRYLINE. SO SIGNIFICANT SWD DEVELOPMENT OF SEVERE THREAT FROM ARKLATEX REGION IS LOW PROBABILITY.   --- ERN GREAT LAKES...MID/UPPER OH VALLEY REGIONS --- WIDELY SCATTERED TSTMS IN CLUSTERS SHOULD DEVELOP ALONG AND N OF SURFACE WARM FRONT THROUGH TODAY. ZONE OF ELEVATED WAA/ASCENT WILL SHIFT NWD AHEAD OF WARM FRONT...INCREASING CONVECTIVE AND SEVERE POTENTIAL IN A WNW-ESE BAND FROM SRN LOWER MI TO WRN/CENTRAL PA. LARGE HAIL POSSIBLE WITH DAMAGING WIND THREAT GREATEST INVOF FRONT WHERE CONVECTION WILL BE MOST NEARLY SURFACE-BASED. ..EDWARDS.. 04/11/01   NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 1 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED FOR 1630Z