ACUS1 KMKC 112021
SWODY1
MKC AC 112013
 
STORM PREDICTION CENTER...NWS/NCEP...NORMAN OK
DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK...REF AWIPS GRAPHIC PGWE46 KWBC.
 
VALID 112000Z - 121200Z

THERE IS A HIGH RISK OF SVR TSTMS THROUGH LATE EVENING FOR EASTERN
IOWA...MOST OF SOUTHERN WISCONSIN...AND NORTHWEST ILLINOIS TO THE
RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 15 N DSM 15 S MCW 35 S RST 25 ESE VOK 40 S OSH
15 SW MKE 20 W CGX 30 SW MMO 40 WSW PIA 25 SW BRL 25 WSW OTM 15 N
DSM.
 
SURROUNDING THE HIGH RISK...THERE IS A MDT RISK OF SVR TSTMS
THROUGH TONIGHT FOR NORTHEAST MISSOURI...CENTRAL ILLINOIS...
NORTHWEST INDIANA...WESTERN LOWER MICHIGAN...CENTRAL WISCONSIN...
SOUTHEAST MINNESOTA...AND NORTH CENTRAL IOWA TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE
FROM 40 ENE LWD 40 W FOD 35 SSW OTG 15 NNW OTG 50 NNW GRB 45 WNW
TVC 50 NE MKG 20 SSE GRR 35 W FWA 15 NNE MTO 20 ENE ALN 50 ENE COU
IRK 40 ENE LWD.

THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM
40 SW OWB 15 S DYR 10 N JBR VIH 15 SE IRK 45 S SPW 15 SW YKN
25 S MHE 20 E RWF 45 NNW EAU 40 WNW IMT 45 E MQT 30 NNE PLN
60 E APN 55 E MTC 40 NNW JHW 30 SSW ROC 20 N IPT 10 NNW MRB
45 W EKN 25 NE SDF 40 SW OWB.

GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM MSS 30 SW GON
...CONT... 25 NE ORF 20 SSW SSU 20 NNE LOZ 40 WNW CSV 25 SSW MSL
50 ESE GWO 30 NW HEZ 40 WSW MLU 30 ESE ELD 30 E LIT 35 E UNO
15 S JEF 30 SW P35 25 NNW MHK 45 WNW CNK 15 SSE BUB 20 ESE 9V9
50 ENE ABR 45 W BRD 75 E ELO.

GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 30 SSE LMT
70 ENE 4LW 40 SSE BKE 25 WSW SUN 30 SW MLD 35 SSE SLC 10 ENE GCN
35 E NID 50 NNE SAC 25 N RBL 30 SSE LMT.

...MIDDLE MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY INTO THE SOUTHERN GREAT LAKES...
 
---SIGNIFICANT OUTBREAK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS INCLUDING
STRONG/VIOLENT TORNADOES AND DAMAGING WINDS GRADUALLY EVOLVING---

 
LINE OF SUPERCELLS ALONG PACIFIC COLD FRONT SPREADING THROUGH IOWA
SHOULD CONTINUE TO HAVE POTENTIAL FOR SIGNIFICANT TORNADOES OVER
THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS AS MODERATE INSTABILITY WITH MLCAPE NEAR
1000 J/KG AND 0-3 KM STORM RELATIVE HELICITY OF 200-400 M2/S2 IS
ENCOUNTERED.
 
POTENTIALLY MOST INTENSE TORNADIC SUPERCELLS WILL LIKELY EVOLVE
FROM STORMS ENTERING SOUTHEAST IOWA ON TAIL OF COMMA CONFIGURATION.
WARM FRONT HAS LIFTED NORTH INTO SOUTHERN WISCONSIN...SO CELLS
MOVING INTO EASTERN IOWA WILL TRACK SEVERAL HOURS THROUGH WARM
SECTOR TOWARD SOUTHERN WISCONSIN/NORTHWEST ILLINOIS WITH POTENTIAL
FOR PARTICULARLY DAMAGING TORNADOES.
 
EXTENSIVE CLOUD COVER/PRECIPITATION FROM CENTRAL ILLINOIS INTO
EASTERN MISSOURI HAS LIMITED DESTABLIZATION IN THAT AREA...WITH
GRADUALLY DIMINISHING THREAT OF SIGNIFICANT SEVERE. WEAKER FORCING
AND INSTABILITY SOUTH OF MISSOURI SHOULD ALSO LIMIT THUNDERSTORM/
SEVERE THREAT IN THAT AREA FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE PERIOD.
 
A SQUALL LINE SHOULD EVENTUALLY ORGANIZE FROM BROKEN LINE OF
SUPERCELLS BY THIS EVENING WITH ENHANCED WIND THREAT SPREADING INTO
THE CENTRAL WISCONSIN/LAKE MICHIGAN/LOWER MICHIGAN/NORTHERN INDIANA
AREA.

..CRAVEN.. 04/11/01

NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 1 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED FOR 0100Z