MKC AC 110554 STORM PREDICTION CENTER...NWS/NCEP...NORMAN OK DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK...REF AWIPS GRAPHIC PGWE46 KWBC.   VALID 111200Z - 121200Z THERE IS A MDT RISK OF SVR TSTMS OVER CENTRAL/SRN MN AND NWRN IA... TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 25 NE RST 20 ESE MCW 40 WSW FOD 25 SW SUX 15 SSE YKN 15 ESE BKX 15 W AXN 10 ENE BRD 55 SSW DLH 25 NE RST. THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 25 N MTC 40 E DBQ 30 NNW FNB 55 S EAR 40 ESE FCL 35 SE RWL 10 SW CPR 30 SSW 81V PHP 15 WSW HON 50 WNW RRT. THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 35 S MSV 25 SSE BGM SYR 40 NE UCA 15 SW RUT 25 WNW ORH 25 NE BDR 20 NNE JFK 35 S MSV. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 40 SE 7R4 25 NNE BTR 20 W MEI 35 SE BHM 15 N MCN CAE 25 WNW SOP 35 N RWI 30 ESE ECG. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM ACY 25 SSE AOO 35 E IND 15 ESE BMI 10 NW STJ 10 NE HLC 35 ENE LIC 15 WSW 4FC 50 W BPI 40 E SUN 50 SW 3DU 20 NW LWT 25 S MLS 50 SW DIK 10 W BIS 80 NNE DVL.   FAIRLY STRONG SWLY MID/UPPER LEVEL FLOW WILL OVERSPREAD MUCH OF THE NRN U.S. TODAY. SEVERAL LOW AMPLITUDE TROUGHS ARE EXPECTED TO EJECT FROM DOMINANT UPPER LOW OVER THE PAC NW AND FLATTEN RIDGE AXIS OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS AND GREAT LAKES. WELL DEFINED SHORTWAVE TROUGH NOW MOVING ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES REGION WILL LIKEWISE SHIFT STEADILY EWD ACROSS NY AND MUCH OF NEW ENGLAND TODAY. IN ADDITION...REMNANTS OF ALLISON WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE SLOWLY EWD ALONG THE CENTRAL GULF COAST. ...NRN PLAINS INTO THE MID MO VALLEY... SUNDAY EVENING SOUNDINGS INDICATE LAPSE RATES ARE ALREADY VERY STEEP ACROSS MUCH OF THIS REGION...AND PERSISTENT SWLY FLOW ABOVE THE BOUNDARY LAYER WILL STEEPEN THESE FURTHER ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS TODAY. THIS WILL ALSO INCREASE CAP DRAMATICALLY OVER MUCH OF NEB AND IA. HOWEVER...RICH BOUNDARY LAYER MOISTURE NOW ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS WILL ADVECT NWD INTO THE NRN MS VALLEY THROUGH THE DAY AND MAY SUPPORT SURFACE DEW POINTS AROUND 70F AS FAR N AS CENTRAL MN BY PEAK HEATING. THUS...EXPECT THE AIR MASS TO BE STRONGLY UNSTABLE OVER A LARGE PART OF THE CENTRAL PLAINS INTO THE NRN MS VALLEY THIS AFTERNOON...WITH SBCAPES OVER 3500 J/KG.   EVOLUTION OF MCS EXPECTED TO BE INVOF THE RED RIVER VALLEY REGION THIS MORNING REMAINS IN QUESTION. THIS SYSTEM SHOULD WEAKEN SOME DURING THE MORNING...BEFORE RE-INTENSIFYING OVER NRN AND CENTRAL MN DURING THE AFTERNOON. IN ADDITION...CONVERGENCE INVOF OUTFLOW FROM THIS ACTIVITY AND/OR APPROACHING COLD FRONT SHOULD BREAK CAP SWWD INTO THE MID MO RIVER VALLEY REGION THROUGH THE EARLY EVENING. FORECAST SOUNDINGS YIELD VERY STRONG SHEAR INTO THE NRN MS VALLEY REGION AS 45-55 KT WLY MID LEVEL WINDS OVERSPREAD THE REGION. THIS WILL BE SUPPORTIVE OF SUPERCELLS AND A FEW TORNADOES...WITH UNIDIRECTIONAL PROFILES FAVORING A FEW SUSTAINED BOW ECHOES... ESPECIALLY IF CONVECTIVE INITIATION BECOMES LINEAR IN NATURE. FARTHER SW ALONG THE COLD FRONT INTO ERN NEB/NRN IA THE SHEAR WEAKENS SOME...BUT WILL STILL BE SUPPORTIVE OF SUPERCELLS GIVEN THE EXTREME INSTABILITY. THE THREAT OF VERY LARGE HAIL WILL ALSO ACCOMPANY THIS ACTIVITY THROUGH THE EVENING. ...CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS INTO NEB... WRN EXTENT OF SURFACE FRONT WILL STALL INVOF THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS...AND MAINTAIN AN AXIS OF 50+F DEW POINTS INTO THE NEB PANHANDLE/SERN WY. THOUGH CAP WILL BE PRONOUNCED OVER LOWER ELEVATIONS...WEAK SHORTWAVE TROUGH EJECTING ENEWD ACROSS THE CENTRAL ROCKIES SHOULD SUPPORT A FEW THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE HIGH TERRAIN THIS AFTERNOON. THIS ACTIVITY WILL SHIFT EWD INTO 2000 J/KG CAPES OVER THE PLAINS THROUGH THE EVENING...WITH SUFFICIENT SHEAR FOR SUPERCELLS. FURTHER DEVELOPMENT IS EXPECTED ACROSS NEB DURING THE LATE EVENING/OVERNIGHT ALONG NOSE OF 50+ KT SLY LLJ... WHICH SHOULD BE ELEVATED NORTH OF E-W SURFACE FRONT NEAR THE KS/NEB BORDER. LARGE HAIL WILL LIKELY ACCOMPANY THIS ACTIVITY. ...NY INTO WRN NEW ENGLAND... WELL DEFINED MID LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH NOW OVER THE CENTRAL GREAT LAKES WILL MAINTAIN AN AREA OF CONVECTION ACROSS NY THROUGH THE MORNING...AND SHIFT THIS ACTIVITY ESEWD ACROSS SRN NEW ENGLAND DURING THE DAY. WITH SOME HEATING DURING THE EARLY AFTERNOON AND DEW POINTS AROUND 60...THE AIR MASS SHOULD DESTABILIZE WITH SBCAPES IN THE 500-1500 J/KG RANGE BY MID AFTERNOON. THOUGH INSTABILITY WILL NOT BE TOO STRONG...STRENGTH OF UVV/S AND SHEAR SHOULD SUPPORT A THREAT OF WIND DAMAGE AND POSSIBLY AN ISOLATED TORNADO AS THIS ACTIVITY SHIFTS QUICKLY ESEWD INTO THE EARLY EVENING. ..EVANS.. 06/11/01 NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 1 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED FOR 1300Z