MKC AC 120058
 
STORM PREDICTION CENTER...NWS/NCEP...NORMAN OK
DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK...REF AWIPS GRAPHIC PGWE46 KWBC.
 
VALID 120100Z - 121200Z

THERE IS A HIGH RISK OF SVR TSTMS OVER CENTRAL AND SRN WI...TO THE
RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 35 NW OSH 10 S OSH 30 NE JVL 25 W JVL 50 NW
DBQ 25 SE RST 40 NW LSE 20 E EAU CWA 35 NW OSH.

THERE IS A MDT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM
30 NNW CGX 30 S RFD 30 S ALO 35 ESE FOD 15 NW MCW 15 SSW RST
10 SW EAU 30 ENE EAU 15 NE AUW 20 NNW GRB 15 SW MTW 30 NNW CGX.

THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM
35 ESE FWA 30 ESE LAF 30 W BRL 35 N FNB 35 SE HSI 15 E MCK
15 SE LBF 10 NE BUB 30 S FSD 20 ENE MKT 55 SSW IWD 30 NW ESC
15 NNE TVC 35 WSW MBS 35 ESE FWA.

THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM
20 SSE NEL 20 NNW ILG 20 SSW IPT IPT 25 W MSV 45 WSW ALB ALB
25 SW EEN 15 SE BDL 20 SE ISP.

THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM
25 ESE PNS 45 WSW TOI 15 NW TOI 25 SSE CSG 20 NNW AYS 30 WNW JAX
60 SSE CTY.

GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 45 E TOL 30 SW MFD
40 ESE DAY 15 NE IRK 20 NNW STJ 40 W CNK 35 W HLC 10 ESE GLD
20 E COS 40 WNW COS 40 NW LAR 35 ESE BPI 30 SSW MLD 60 NE EKO
35 NNW OWY 65 N BOI 45 S MSO 50 SSE GTF 60 W MLS 35 SW REJ
30 NNW PHP 20 N BKX 65 NE MSP 30 NNW IWD.

GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM ACY 15 ESE HGR
25 NNW AOO 20 ESE BFD 10 E ITH 30 SW SLK 25 WNW EFK.

GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 10 E GPT 25 E LUL
30 ESE CBM 20 ENE GAD 40 SSE SPA 10 ENE CRE.

GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 10 NE MIA 45 WNW PBI
AGR 20 NNW PIE.

...NRN MS VALLEY INTO THE CENTRAL GREAT LAKES/NRN IL...
CURRENT INDICATIONS SUGGEST SUSTAINED BOW ECHO/DERECHO WILL
CONTINUE DEVELOPING ACROSS FAR WRN WI AND SERN MN OVER THE NEXT FEW
HOURS. SURFACE ANALYSIS INDICATES WARM FRONT/INSTABILITY GRADIENT
EXTENDING FROM FAR SERN MN SEWD INTO SERN WI/FAR NERN IL AND NRN
IND ATTM. SBCAPES REMAIN EXTREME WITHIN WARM SECTOR...WITH VALUES
OVER 4000 J/KG ACROSS SWRN WI AND ALMOST ALL OF IA. GIVEN THE
INCREASING WSWLY FLOW OVER THE REGION...THIS AIRMASS WILL LIKELY
CONTINUE FEEDING THE SEVERE MCS AS IT MOVES ESEWD ACROSS WI THROUGH
THE EVENING. VERY STRONG SHEAR AND ENHANCED STORM-RELATIVE INFLOW
DUE TO SELY SURFACE WINDS ON COOL SIDE OF FRONT SHOULD SUPPORT
ORGANIZED CONVECTION FOR SEVERAL MORE HOURS...AND ENHANCE THE
THREAT FOR WIDESPREAD STRONG/DAMAGING WINDS. PRONOUNCED LOW LEVEL
SHEAR AND SR-HELICITIES WILL ALSO MAINTAIN A THREAT OF SUPERCELLS
AND ISOLATED TORNADOES ALONG LEADING EDGE OF THE DERECHO. SRN EDGE
OF THIS SYSTEM WILL LIKELY PERSIST INTO NRN IL...THOUGH COOL/STABLE
AIR OVER LAKE MI AND LOWER MI POSES MORE UNCERTAINTY AS TO WHETHER
OR NOT SEVERE CONVECTION CAN MAKE IT INTO LOWER MI LATER TONIGHT.
ATTM EXPECT MCS WILL WEAKEN AS IT MOVES INTO LOWER MI...AND LIMIT
THE THREAT OF WIDESPREAD SEVERE.

...CENTRAL PLAINS INTO IA...
SURFACE COLD FRONT IS WELL DEFINED ATTM TRAILING SWWD FROM LOW
CENTER OVER SWRN MN ACROSS NWRN IA AND INTO SWRN NEB/NERN CO.
THOUGH EXTREME INSTABILITY IS PLACE...PRONOUNCED CAP IS INHIBITING
CONVECTION ALONG THE FRONT. THE EXCEPTION IS INTO CENTRAL NEB
WHERE STRONG HEATING AND CONVERGENCE WAS SUFFICIENT FOR DEEP
CONVECTION. LATEST RUC HANDLED THIS DEVELOPMENT VERY WELL...AND
SUGGESTS CONVECTION WILL CONTINUE DEVELOPING INTO ERN NEB THROUGH
THE EVENING AS STRONG SLY LLJ DEVELOPS ACROSS KS. COMBINATION OF
FRONT AND SWD MOVING OUTFLOW BOUNDARY FROM NRN MS VALLEY MCS SHOULD
PROVIDE SUFFICIENT CONVERGENCE FOR DEVELOPMENT INTO IA AS WELL.
ACTIVITY OVER THIS REGION WILL LIKELY BECOME ELEVATED AS IT MOVES
NORTH OF SURFACE FRONT...AND SHOULD POSE PRIMARY THREAT OF VERY
LARGE HAIL AND ISOLATED DAMAGING WINDS.

...GULF COAST...
TROPICAL SYSTEM HAS BECOME BETTER ORGANIZED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY
THIS AFTERNOON...AND IS SUPPORTING VERY STRONG LOW LEVEL SHEAR
ACROSS THE FL PANHANDLE/SWRN AL/SRN GA. SURFACE LOW IS ALSO
DEEPENING THIS EVENING OVER S-CENTRAL AL. THIS WILL LIKELY
CONTINUE SUPPORTING ISOLATED TORNADOES AS STORMS SHIFT EWD ACROSS
THIS REGION OVERNIGHT.

...WRN NEW ENGLAND INTO THE NRN MID ATLANTIC...
AIR MASS REMAINS MODERATELY UNSTABLE JUST AHEAD OF CONVECTION
SHIFTING ESEWD ACROSS THIS AREA..WITH TEMPERATURES WELL INTO THE
70S AHEAD OF COLD FRONT MOVING SWD INTO NRN PA/SERN NY. EXPECT
LOSS OF HEATING AFTER SUNSET WILL WEAKEN OVERALL CONVECTION OVER
THE REGION ...THOUGH THE THREAT OF ISOLATED WIND/HAIL WILL PERSIST
FOR ANOTHER FEW HOURS. /REFERENCE SWOMCD 1129 ISSUED FOR THIS AREA
AT 0020Z./

..EVANS.. 06/12/01