MKC AC 132148   STORM PREDICTION CENTER...NWS/NCEP...NORMAN OK DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK...REF AWIPS GRAPHIC PGWE46 KWBC.   VALID 132000Z - 141200Z THERE IS A HIGH RISK OF SVR TSTMS THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH EARLY EVENING FROM THE CNTRL GULF COAST INTO S CNTRL AL TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 10 NNE 0A8 30 NNW MGM 30 S TOI 10 ESE CEW PNS 30 ESE MOB 10 NNW MOB 45 ESE LUL 35 E MEI 25 SSW TCL 10 NNE 0A8. THERE IS A MDT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 40 W BVE 20 ENE LUL 25 ESE TUP 25 SSE MSL 30 W GAD 45 WNW AUO 25 NW DHN 20 SE PFN. THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 20 SE HUM 10 SSW LUL 25 NNW MEI 20 S TUP 45 S MKL 25 NNE MKL 15 SW PAH 10 NW MDH 15 NE BLV 25 SSE SPI 25 SW BMI 25 NNE BMI 35 E MMO 30 E CGX 10 NE BEH 20 NNW AZO 25 WSW LAN 15 NNW JXN 15 SE JXN 20 WNW TOL 30 W FDY 20 NNW DAY 25 WNW LEX CHA 15 SSE LGC 25 S TLH. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 35 NE CLE 25 SSW ZZV 30 S HTS 25 NNW TRI 20 NNE AVL 30 S GSP 40 SSW AGS 20 NW AYS 35 S CTY ...CONT... 35 SW GLS 40 WSW HOU 55 S CLL 40 ESE AUS 20 N AUS 30 W TPL 20 NW ACT 55 SSE DAL 25 NE TYR 30 SE TXK 40 SW PBF 30 ENE PBF 45 W MEM 50 S STL 30 WNW SPI 25 E DBQ 20 W CWA 30 SE IWD. ...SERN U.S.... HAVE INCLUDED THE CNTRL GULF COAST AREA IN HIGH RISK DUE TO NUMEROUS POTENTIALLY TORNADIC SUPERCELLS SPREADING NWD FROM THE GULF...INCLUDING POTENTIAL FOR A SIGNIFICANT TORNADO. GREATEST TORNADO THREAT SHOULD PERSIST THROUGH EARLY EVENING.   PREFRONTAL SQUALL LINE FROM WRN TN SWWD THROUGH MS AND SERN LA CONTINUES EWD AT AROUND 25 KT. NUMEROUS STORMS INCLUDING SEVERAL DISCRETE SUPERCELLS CONTINUE DEVELOPING IN WARM SECTOR AHEAD OF THE LINE AND ARE LIFTING NWD INTO THE GULF COAST REGION FROM SERN MS THROUGH SRN/CNTRL AL AND THE WRN FL PANHANDLE.   SHORTWAVE TROUGH OVER ERN TX IS IN THE PROCESS OF EJECTING NEWD. SURFACE PRESSURE FALLS HAVE INCREASED OVER WARM SECTOR POSSIBLY IN RESPONSE TO INCREASING UPPER DIVERGENCE DOWNSTREAM FROM THIS FEATURE AND WARM ADVECTION ALONG STRONG 50 TO 60 KT SLY LOW LEVEL JET AXIS. AS A RESULT THE NEAR SURFACE FLOW HAS BACKED SLIGHTLY WITH TIME....ENHANCING LOW LEVEL SHEAR PROFILES. SURFACE TO 2 KM SHEAR IS GENERALLY IN EXCESS OF 30 KT FROM THE CNTRL GULF COAST TO THE TN VALLEY.   VERY RICH LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WITH DEWPOINTS IN THE UPPER 70S CONTINUE TO SPREAD NWD ALONG LOW LEVEL JET. AN AREA OF PARTIAL CLEARING HAS SPREAD INLAND FROM THE GULF WHERE MLCAPES HAVE INCREASED TO AROUND 2000 J/KG FROM SERN MS...SWRN AL INTO THE EXTREME WRN FL PANHANDLE. ATMOSPHERE SHOULD DESTABILIZE NWD WITH TIME AS RICHER LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AND ZONE OF PARTIAL CLEARING ADVECTS TOWARD CNTRL AL. STRONG VERTICAL SHEAR...LOW LCLS AND MODERATE INSTABILITY WILL SUPPORT TORNADIC SUPERCELLS...ESPECIALLY IN HIGH RISK AREA FROM THE CNTRL GULF COAST THROUGH CNTRL AL THE REMAINDER OF THIS AFTERNOON INTO EARLY EVENING. DAMAGING WIND IS LIKELY WITH EWD MOVING SQUALL LINE AS WELL AS POTENTIAL FOR ISOLATED TORNADOES ASSOCIATED WITH EMBEDDED SUPERCELLS. ...OH VALLEY... SEVERE THREAT IN THIS AREA IS MORE MARGINAL DUE TO LIMITED INSTABILITY. HOWEVER...PRESSURE FALLS HAVE BEEN INCREASING WITH TIME RESULTING IN BACKING LOW LEVEL FLOW AND INCREASING CONVERGENCE ALONG FRONT. LATEST RADAR IMAGERY SHOWS A FORCED LINE OF SHOWERS DEVELOPING OVER WRN IL UPSTREAM FROM A MORE GENERAL AREA OF SCATTERED SHOWERS SPREADING NWD ALONG WARM CONVEYOR BELT. GIVEN STRENGTH OF WIND PROFILES...POTENTIAL EXISTS FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF LEWP/BOW ECHO STRUCTURES AND DAMAGING WIND AS LINE CONTINUES EWD THROUGH EARLY EVENING. LIMITED INSTABILITY SUGGESTS LITTLE OR NO LIGHTNING WILL ACCOMPANY THE CONVECTION. ..DIAL.. 10/13/01 NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 1 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED FOR 0100Z