PUBLIC SEVERE WEATHER OUTLOOK
STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
539 AM CST WED 31 JUL 2002

...SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WITH DAMAGING WINDS...LARGE HAIL...AND A FEW TORNADOES ARE EXPECTED OVER PARTS OF THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY TODAY THROUGH TONIGHT.

THE STORM PREDICTION CENTER IN NORMAN OK IS FORECASTING THE DEVELOPMENT OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WITH DAMAGING WINDS...LARGE HAIL...AND A FEW TORNADOES OVER PARTS OF MISSISSIPPI VALLEY LATER TODAY THROUGH TONIGHT.

THE AREAS MOST LIKELY TO EXPERIENCE THIS ACTIVITY INCLUDE:

EAST CENTRAL MINNESOTA
WESTERN AND NORTHERN WISCONSIN
WESTERN UPPER MICHIGAN

OTHER SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WITH ISOLATED DAMAGING WINDS AND LARGE HAIL WILL BE POSSIBLE ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF MINNESOTA AND WISCONSIN...AS WELL AS THE EASTERN DAKOTAS...NORTHERN IOWA...AND NORTHERN LOWER MICHIGAN.

TWO MID TO UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCES WILL AFFECT THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY TODAY AND TONIGHT. THE INITIAL SYSTEM IS MOVING ACROSS NORTH AND SOUTH DAKOTA THIS MORNING...AND WILL CONTINUE EASTWARD ACROSS MINNESOTA AND WISCONSIN LATER TODAY. A STRONGER MID LEVEL TROUGH IS NOW MOVING OVER NORTHWEST MONTANA AND WILL REACH EASTERN NORTH DAKOTA AND NORTHWEST MINNESOTA LATE TONIGHT. ONGOING THUNDERSTORMS OVER MINNESOTA AND EASTERN NORTH DAKOTA ARE ASSOCIATED WITH THE INITIAL MID LEVEL TROUGH AND A STRONG LOW-LEVEL JET. THESE STORMS WILL LIKELY SPREAD EASTWARD ACROSS MUCH OF CENTRAL AND NORTHERN MINNESOTA...NORTHERN AND WESTERN WISCONSIN ...AND WESTERN UPPER MICHIGAN THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON. AS LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE SPREADS NORTHEASTWARD ACROSS MINNESOTA AND WISCONSIN... THE ATMOSPHERE WILL BECOME VERY UNSTABLE AND SUPPORT INTENSIFICATION OF THE ONGOING STORMS. THE DEGREE OF INSTABILITY AND INCREASING WIND SHEAR WITH TIME OVER MINNESOTA AND WISCONSIN WILL SUPPORT SEVERAL CLUSTERS OF STORMS CAPABLE OF PRODUCING WIDESPREAD DAMAGING WINDS...LARGE HAIL...AND A FEW TORNADOES.

LATER TONIGHT...THE STRONG TROUGH OVER MONTANA WILL REACH EASTERN NORTH DAKOTA AND NORTHWEST MINNESOTA. THOUGH THE ATMOSPHERE WILL LIKELY DESTABILIZE IN ADVANCE OF THIS MID LEVEL TROUGH AND AN ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT...THE COMBINATION OF INSTABILITY AND WIND SHEAR NO LONGER APPEARS FAVORABLE FOR WIDESPREAD/INTENSE SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS NORTHERN MINNESOTA. IN ADDITION...THE WIDESPREAD CLOUDS AND RAIN TODAY WILL TEND TO LIMIT INSTABILITY ACROSS NORTH AND NORTHEAST MINNESOTA THROUGH MUCH OF THE DAY...WHICH WILL REDUCE THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM THREAT THIS AREA.

THIS IS STILL POTENTIALLY A DANGEROUS SITUATION. THOSE IN THE THREATENED AREAS ARE URGED TO REVIEW SEVERE WEATHER SAFETY RULES AND TO LISTEN TO RADIO AND TELEVISION AND NOAA WEATHER RADIO FOR POSSIBLE WATCHES...WARNINGS AND STATEMENTS LATER TODAY.

RICHARD THOMPSON
LEAD FORECASTER, STORM PREDICTION CENTER