SPC AC 100551      STORM PREDICTION CENTER...NWS/NCEP...NORMAN OK    DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK...REF AWIPS GRAPHIC PGWE46 KWNS.      VALID 101200Z - 111200Z    THERE IS A HIGH RISK OF SVR TSTMS THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING FOR    NORTHEAST MISSISSIPPI...MUCH OF TENNESSEE...NORTHWEST ALABAMA...AND    MUCH OF KENTUCKY TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 45 NE JAN 30 NNW GWO    25 SW DYR 35 NNW HOP 30 NNE LEX 20 NNE JKL 25 ESE CSV 25 N BHM 40    NE MEI 45 NE JAN.      SURROUNDING THE HIGH RISK...THERE IS A MDT RISK OF SVR TSTMS FOR    THE LOWER OHIO RIVER VALLEY...CENTRAL PORTIONS OF MISSISSIPPI AND    ALABAMA...NORTHWEST GEORGIA...EASTERN PARTS OF KENTUCKY AND    TENNESSEE...AND FAR WESTERN VIRGINIA/NORTH CAROLINA TO THE RIGHT OF    A LINE FROM 30 NNW MCB 60 ENE PBF 40 NW DYR EVV 25 SW DAY 10 E PKB    25 ESE TRI 10 SSE CSG 50 NW CEW 45 SSW LUL 30 NNW MCB.    THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM    40 WSW HUM 15 S HEZ 35 W GLH 15 SW POF SBN 20 NE MBS ...CONT...    30 NNE BUF 15 SSE BFD 35 S ROA CAE 40 WNW SAV PFN.    GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 10 SSW FMN    35 SSW VEL 45 WNW CAG 40 SSW 4FC 55 SSE LHX 25 SSE LTS 50 N ABI    25 S 4SL 10 SSW FMN.    GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 25 W 7R4 ESF    40 W MLU 45 E HRO 35 NNW ALN 40 SW RFD 10 ENE LSE 20 ESE RHI    40 WNW ANJ.      ---SIGNIFICANT SEVERE WEATHER EPISODE INCLUDING THREAT FOR TORNADO    OUTBREAK AND/OR WIDESPREAD DAMAGING WINDS ANTICIPATED SUNDAY---    ...SYNOPSIS...    STRONG ZONAL FLOW PATTERN WILL UNDERGO SIGNIFICANT AMPLIFICATION    TODAY AND TONIGHT AS BROAD TROUGH MOVES INTO THE CENTRAL STATES AND    UPPER RIDGE BUILDS ALONG THE PACIFIC COAST. SURFACE LOW IS    EXPECTED TO MOVE FROM MICHIGAN INTO WESTERN QUEBEC DURING THE    PERIOD. TRAILING COLD FRONT SHOULD EXTEND FROM INDIANA TO EAST    TEXAS BY EARLY THIS EVENING.    ...MEMPHIS AREA INTO OHIO/WEST VIRGINIA...    ETA/AVN BOTH INDICATE STRONG CVA WILL SPREAD FROM OKLAHOMA TO OHIO    DURING THE PERIOD. ETA SUGGESTS THAT A SURFACE WAVE DEVELOPS ALONG    THE FRONT AND TRACKS ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA DURING THE AFTERNOON    AND EVENING. SURFACE DEWPOINTS HAVE ALREADY CLIMBED WELL INTO THE    50S AND LOWER 60S WITH ONGOING SEVERE EVENT...AND ADDITIONAL    ADVECTION THROUGH TODAY SHOULD RESULT IN A LARGE AREA OF 60+ F    DEWPOINTS INTO THE OHIO RIVER VALLEY. ETA FORECAST MLCAPE OF 1000-    2000 J/KG APPEARS REASONABLE.      STRONG FLOW AT ALL LEVELS IS ANTICIPATED AS 150 KNOT 250 MB WIND    MAXIMUM ROTATES NORTHEASTWARD FROM THE RED RIVER VALLEY INTO THE    OHIO VALLEY DURING THE EVENING. POTENTIAL FOR A FAST MOVING    COMPLEX OF BOW ECHOES AND/OR SUPERCELLS WITH THREAT FOR SIGNIFICANT    WIND DAMAGE/TORNADOES APPEARS LIKELY NEAR SURFACE WAVE.    ...MISSISSIPPI/ALABAMA/GEORGIA...    LATEST SURFACE ANALYSIS INDICATES 70+ DEWPOINTS HAVE ALREADY MOVED    ONSHORE FROM THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE TO LOUISIANA. AS 90-100 KNOT    500 MB JET TRANSLATES FROM NORTH TEXAS TO TENNESSEE DURING THE    EVENING AND 850 MB JET INCREASES TO 65 KNOTS...WIND PROFILES WILL    BECOME VERY FAVORABLE FOR SUPERCELLS/TORNADOES WITH 0-1 KM SHEAR    VALUES OF 30-40 KNOTS. MLCAPE VALUES ABOVE 2000 J/KG AND MOIST    BOUNDARY LAYER WITH LOW LCL HEIGHTS SUGGEST THAT SIGNIFICANT    TORNADOES ARE POSSIBLE IF SUPERCELLS CAN DEVELOP ALONG/AHEAD OF    COLD FRONT.      DEVELOPMENT OF A SQUALL LINE ALONG/AHEAD OF COLD FRONT SHOULD    RESULT IN WIDESPREAD DAMAGING WINDS AND A FEW TORNADOES OVERNIGHT.      ..CRAVEN.. 11/10/02       NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 1 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED FOR 1300Z