PUBLIC SEVERE WEATHER OUTLOOK
STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
400 AM CST SUN 10 NOV 2002

...OUTBREAK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS INCLUDING A FEW STRONG TORNADOES AND WIDESPREAD WIND DAMAGE ARE EXPECTED FROM THE OHIO RIVER VALLEY ACROSS THE TENNESSEE VALLEY TODAY THROUGH TONIGHT.

THE STORM PREDICTION CENTER IN NORMAN OK IS FORECASTING THE DEVELOPMENT OF A FEW STRONG TORNADOES AND WIDESPREAD WIND DAMAGE FROM THE OHIO RIVER VALLEY ACROSS THE TENNESSEE VALLEY LATER TODAY THROUGH TONIGHT.

THE AREAS MOST LIKELY TO EXPERIENCE THIS ACTIVITY INCLUDE:
FAR SOUTHERN INDIANA
SOUTHERN OHIO
KENTUCKY
TENNESSEE
NORTHERN MISSISSIPPI
NORTHERN ALABAMA

OTHER SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WITH DAMAGING WINDS...LARGE HAIL AND ISOLATED TORNADOES WILL BE POSSIBLE ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF THE OHIO RIVER VALLEY...CENTRAL/SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS...INTO THE CENTRAL GULF COAST.

A STRONG TROUGH IN THE MIDDLE AND UPPER LEVELS OF THE ATMOSPHERE WILL DEVELOP ACROSS THE CENTRAL U.S. TODAY AND TONIGHT...SETTING THE STAGE FOR A POSSIBLE OUTBREAK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS AS A VERY WARM AND MOIST AIR MASS IS OVERRIDDEN BY EXTREMELY STRONG WINDS ALOFT.

THE DISTURBANCE RESPONSIBLE FOR LAST NIGHT'S SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE MIDDLE MISSISSIPPI AND TENNESSEE VALLEY REGIONS WILL MOVE NORTHEASTWARD TODAY. IN THE WAKE OF THIS SYSTEM...A VERY WARM AND MOIST AIR MASS WILL REMAIN IN PLACE FROM THE GULF COAST INTO THE OHIO RIVER VALLEY AND GREAT LAKES REGION. IN ADDITION...A STRONG COLD FRONT WILL PUSH STEADILY EAST-SOUTHEASTWARD ACROSS THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY THIS AFTERNOON AND CONTINUE SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE AFFECTED AREA LATER TODAY AND TONIGHT...FOCUSING SEVERE THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT. VERY STRONG WINDS ALOFT WILL OVERSPREAD THE REGION AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT...AND PROVIDE AN EXCEPTIONALLY FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT FOR ROTATING STORMS WITH AN ATTENDANT THREAT OF A FEW STRONG TORNADOES. IN ADDITION...STORMS WILL EVOLVE INTO A SQUALL LINE NEAR THE FRONT PRODUCING WIDESPREAD DAMAGING WINDS OVERNIGHT.

THIS IS POTENTIALLY A VERY DANGEROUS SITUATION. THOSE IN THE THREATENED AREA ARE URGED TO REVIEW SEVERE WEATHER SAFETY RULES AND TO LISTEN TO RADIO AND TELEVISION AND NOAA WEATHER RADIO FOR POSSIBLE WATCHES...WARNINGS AND STATEMENTS LATER TODAY.

JEFFREY EVANS
LEAD FORECASTER, STORM PREDICTION CENTER