SPC AC 230530      STORM PREDICTION CENTER...NWS/NCEP...NORMAN OK    DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK...REF AWIPS GRAPHIC PGWE46 KWNS.      VALID 231200Z - 241200Z    THERE IS A HIGH RISK OF SVR TSTMS OVER PORTIONS OF SERN TX AND    CENTRAL AND SWRN LA TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM    35 E PSX 55 N PSX 30 SSE CLL 15 W POE 30 SSW HEZ BTR 35 W HUM.      SURROUNDING THIS AREA THERE IS A MDT RISK OF SVR TSTMS OVER    PORTIONS SERN TX...CENTRAL AND SRN LA...AND SWRN MS TO THE RIGHT OF    A LINE FROM 25 SSW PSX 40 NW VCT 10 E AUS 25 NNW POE 35 NE HEZ 40    ESE MCB 45 WSW BVE.    THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM    35 S CRP 10 SSE LRD 25 WNW DRT 25 N JCT 20 SE SHV 25 SSW GLH    35 SW UOX 25 SE TUP 35 SW PNS.    GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 45 WSW FHU    45 NNE SAD 40 SW 4SL 15 ESE LVS 20 S LBB 15 W DUA 15 W DYR    20 SSW CKV TYS 20 N AYS 20 S CTY.    ...CENTRAL AND SRN TX AND LWR MS VALLEY    STRONG UPPER TROUGH CURRENTLY INDICATED BY WATER VAPOR IMAGERY OVER    NWRN MEXICO IS EXPECTED TO EJECT EWD INTO TX AND LOWER MS VALLEY    REGION DURING FORECAST PERIOD. TROUGH IS EXPECTED TO BECOME    NEGATIVELY TILTED WITH A 500 MB SPEED MAXIMUM OF 80-100 KT MOVING    INTO SERN TX BY 24/12Z. AS TROUGH MOVES EWD...LOW LEVEL JET IS    FORECAST TO INCREASE OVER SRN AND CENTRAL TX TODAY AND SHIFT EWD    INTO MS AND SERN LA BY END OF PERIOD. A 850 MB WIND SPEED MAXIMUM    OF GREATER THAN 50 KT IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP OVER SERN TX BETWEEN    00Z AND 06Z AND MOVE NEWD INTO CENTRAL MS BY 24/12Z. FORECAST    HODOGRAPHS INDICATE 0-1 KM HELICITY VALUES OF AROUND 500 M2S2    DEVELOPING BY EVENING OVER SERN TX AND SPREADING NEWD INTO MS BY    END OF PERIOD. AIR MASS OVER WRN GULF OF MEXICO HAS HAD SEVERAL    DAYS TO RECOVER...SO ADVECTION OF HIGH VALUES OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE    INTO GULF COASTAL REGION AHEAD OF UPPER SYSTEM AND COLD FRONT    SHOULD NOT BE A PROBLEM. SURFACE BOUNDARY SHOULD MOVE NEWD INTO    SERN TX AND CENTRAL LA BY LATE MONDAY EVENING WITH A SURFACE LOW    MOVING NEWD ALONG BOUNDARY.      PRIND...STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WITH THE RISK OF LARGE HAIL WILL    DEVELOP TODAY OVER PORTIONS OF CENTRAL TEXAS. BY MID TO LATE    AFTERNOON STRONG CONVECTION WITH RISK OF SUPERCELLS AND POSSIBLE    BOW ECHO ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP NEAR BOUNDARY OVER SRN AND    SERN TX. THIS ACTIVITY SHOULD PROGRESS THROUGH SERN TX AND NEWD    INTO THE LOWER MS VALLEY MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY MORNING. IT    CURRENTLY APPEARS THAT THERE IS RISK OF SIGNIFICANT DAMAGING WINDS    AND/OR ISOLATED STRONG TORNADOES...PRIMARILY TONIGHT..ALONG    PORTIONS OF THE GULF COASTAL REGION FROM W OF HOU NEWD INTO CENTRAL    AND SRN LA AND POSSIBLY INTO SWRN MS.      ..JOHNS/CORFIDI.. 12/23/02       NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 1 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED FOR 1300Z