PUBLIC SEVERE WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0516 AM CDT SAT MAY 29 2004
                   
VALID 291016Z - 291815Z

...OUTBREAK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS INCLUDING A FEW STRONG...LONG-TRACK TORNADOES OVER PARTS OF THE SOUTHERN AND CENTRAL PLAINS TODAY THROUGH TONIGHT.

THE NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER IN NORMAN OK IS FORECASTING THE DEVELOPMENT OF A FEW STRONG...LONG-TRACK TORNADOES OVER PARTS OF THE SOUTHERN AND CENTRAL PLAINS LATER TODAY THROUGH TONIGHT.

THE AREAS MOST LIKELY TO EXPERIENCE THIS ACTIVITY INCLUDE:
CENTRAL AND EASTERN KANSAS
EASTERN NEBRASKA
CENTRAL AND NORTHERN OKLAHOMA

THERE IS ALSO A RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER MUCH OF THE REMAINDER OF THE PLAINS FROM THE CANADIAN BORDER OF EASTERN ND AND MN SWD THRU MUCH OF CENTRAL TX.

AN OUTBREAK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS INCLUDING THE POSSIBILITY OF STRONG TORNADOES...VERY LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS IS EXPECTED THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY TONIGHT OVER A LARGE PORTION OF THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN PLAINS AS A VIGOROUS STORM SYSTEM DEEPENS IN THE AREA.

AN INTENSIFYING SURFACE LOW IN WESTERN NEBRASKA WILL MOVE SLOWLY EWD AS STRONG SOUTHERLY WINDS DRAW A VERY MOIST AND UNSTABLE GULF OF MEXICO AIR MASS NORTHWARD ACROSS ALL THE PLAINS STATES TODAY. A VIGOROUS UPPER TROUGH NOW MOVING EWD ACROSS THE ROCKIES WILL PROVIDE INCREASINGLY STRONG WINDS TO MOVE INTO THE HIGH PLAINS AT ALL LEVELS THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING.

WITH VERY STRONG SURFACE HEATING THIS AFTERNOON...THE DRY LINE WILL BECOME ACTIVE AND BE THE FOCUS FOR RAPID DEVELOPMENT OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS. THE DRY LINE AT THE TIME OF STORM DEVELOPMENT BY MID AFTERNOON WILL BE LOCATED NEAR A KEARNEY NEBRASKA TO RUSSELL KANSAS TO AN ALTUS OKLAHOMA LINE.

THE COMBINATION OF THE VERY UNSTABLE AIR MASS AND INCREASINGLY FAVORABLE WIND PROFILES AS THE UPPER TROUGH APPROACHES WILL RESULT IN SUPERCELL THUNDERSTORMS. CONDITIONS WILL SUPPORT STORMS QUICKLY DEVELOPING THE POTENTIAL FOR TORNADOES ALONG WITH VERY LARGE HAIL. STRONG, POSSIBLY LONG TRACK TORNADOES WILL BE LIKELY IN THE HIGH RISK AREA. IN ADDITION VERY LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS WILL BE ASSOCIATED WITH ANY SUPERCELL THUNDERSTORM THAT DEVELOPS.

THIS ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE WELL AFTER DARK AND SPREAD EASTWARD INTO WESTERN IOWA...MISSOURI AND EASTERN OKLAHOMA. IN ADDITION MORE ISOLATED BUT NONE THE LESS POTENTIALLY TORNADIC SUPERCELLS ARE POSSIBLE FROM SOUTHWESTERN MINNESOTA SOUTHWARD TO THE RED RIVER VALLEY ALONG THE TEXAS/OKLAHOMA BORDER.

THIS IS POTENTIALLY A VERY DANGEROUS SITUATION. THOSE IN THE THREATENED AREA ARE URGED TO REVIEW SEVERE WEATHER SAFETY RULES AND TO LISTEN TO RADIO...TELEVISION...AND NOAA WEATHER RADIO FOR POSSIBLE WATCHES...WARNINGS...AND STATEMENTS LATER TODAY.

..HALES.. 05/29/2004