PUBLIC SEVERE WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1153 AM CDT SAT MAY 29 2004
VALID 291653Z - 300100Z

...OUTBREAK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS INCLUDING A FEW STRONG...LONG-TRACK TORNADOES OVER PARTS OF THE SOUTHERN AND CENTRAL PLAINS TODAY THROUGH TONIGHT.

THE NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER IN NORMAN OK IS FORECASTING THE DEVELOPMENT OF A FEW STRONG...LONG-TRACK TORNADOES OVER PARTS OF THE SOUTHERN AND CENTRAL PLAINS LATER TODAY THROUGH TONIGHT.

THE AREAS MOST LIKELY TO EXPERIENCE THIS ACTIVITY INCLUDE:
WESTERN IOWA
CENTRAL AND EASTERN KANSAS
NORTHWEST MISSOURI
CENTRAL AND EASTERN NEBRASKA
OKLAHOMA

THERE IS ALSO A RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER MUCH OF THE REMAINDER OF THE PLAINS FROM THE CANADIAN BORDER OF EASTERN ND AND MN SWD THRU MUCH OF CENTRAL TX.

AN OUTBREAK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS INCLUDING THE POSSIBILITY OF STRONG TORNADOES...VERY LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS IS EXPECTED THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY TONIGHT OVER A LARGE PART OF THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN PLAINS AS A VIGOROUS STORM SYSTEM DEEPENS OVER THE AREA.

AN INTENSIFYING SURFACE LOW IN THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS WILL MOVE SLOWLY NE THROUGH EARLY SUNDAY...PRODUCING STRONG SOUTHERLY WINDS THAT WILL DRAW INCREASINGLY MOIST AND UNSTABLE AIR NORTH ACROSS THE PLAINS. A VIGOROUS JET STREAM DISTURBANCE NOW MOVING EAST ACROSS THE ROCKIES WILL STRENGTHEN WINDS IN THE MID AND UPPER LEVELS OF THE ATMOSPHERE LATER TODAY AND TONIGHT.

WITH VERY STRONG SURFACE HEATING THIS AFTERNOON...VARIOUS SURFACE FEATURES WILL BECOME THE FOCUS FOR RAPID SEVERE THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT OVER PARTS OF NEBRASKA...IOWA...EASTERN SOUTH DAKOTA AND NORTHERN KANSAS. OTHER STORMS MAY FORM A LITTLE LATER THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING SOUTHWARD THROUGH OKLAHOMA INTO PARTS OF WESTERN AND NORTHERN TEXAS. THE COMBINATION OF THE VERY UNSTABLE AIR AND INCREASINGLY FAVORABLE WIND PROFILES WILL RESULT IN SUPERCELL THUNDERSTORMS. CONDITIONS WILL SUPPORT STORMS THAT QUICKLY DEVELOP THE POTENTIAL FOR BOTH TORNADOES AND VERY LARGE HAIL. A STRONG POSSIBLY FOR LONG TRACK TORNADOES WILL EXIST IN THE HIGH RISK AREA.

THE SEVERE THREAT WILL LIKELY CONTINUE WELL AFTER DARK AND SPREAD EAST ACROSS REMAINING PORTIONS OF IOWA...MISSOURI AND OKLAHOMA. IN ADDITION...MORE ISOLATED BUT STILL POTENTIALLY TORNADIC SUPERCELLS ARE POSSIBLE IN REGIONS ADJACENT TO THE HIGH RISK AREA FROM SOUTHWEST MINNESOTA SOUTH TO THE BIG BEND REGION OF TEXAS.

THIS IS POTENTIALLY A VERY DANGEROUS SITUATION. THOSE IN THE THREATENED AREA ARE URGED TO REVIEW SEVERE WEATHER SAFETY RULES AND TO LISTEN TO RADIO...TELEVISION...AND NOAA WEATHER RADIO FOR POSSIBLE WATCHES...WARNINGS...AND STATEMENTS LATER TODAY.

..CORFIDI.. 05/29/2004