PUBLIC SEVERE WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0504 AM CDT SUN MAY 30 2004

VALID 301004Z - 301800Z

...OUTBREAK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS INCLUDING A FEW STRONG TORNADOES AND WIDESPREAD DAMAGING WINDS OVER PARTS OF THE MID MISSISSIPPI VALLEY TODAY THROUGH TONIGHT.

THE NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER IN NORMAN OK IS FORECASTING THE DEVELOPMENT OF A FEW STRONG TORNADOES AND WIDESPREAD DAMAGING WINDS OVER PARTS OF THE MID MISSISSIPPI VALLEY LATER TODAY THROUGH TONIGHT.

THE AREAS MOST LIKELY TO EXPERIENCE THIS ACTIVITY INCLUDE:
ARKANSAS
CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN ILLINOIS
SOUTH AND EAST MISSOURI

SURROUNDING THE HIGH RISK IS A MODERATE RISK EXTENDING FROM NORTHERN ILLINOIS SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST TEXAS AND EASTWARD INTO THE WESTERN OHIO AND TENNESSEE VALLEYS

AN OUTBREAK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS INCLUDING THE POSSIBILITY OF STRONG TORNADOES...VERY LARGE HAIL AND WIDESPREAD DAMAGING WINDS IS EXPECTED THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT OVER A LARGE PART OF THE CENTRAL PORTION OF THE U.S.

AN UNSEASONABLY STRONG UPPER TROUGH IS MOVING EASTWARD INTO THE CENTRAL U.S. TODAY. ASSOCIATED IS A DEEP SURFACE LOW CENTERED OVER EASTERN SOUTH DAKOTA WITH A VIGOROUS COLD FRONT EXTENDING SOUTHWARD THROUGH THE KANSAS CITY AREA AND THEN SOUTHWEST INTO WEST TEXAS.

A STRONG SOUTHERLY FLOW OF VERY MOIST AND UNSTABLE GULF AIR MASS CONTINUES TO MOVE NORTHWARD THROUGH THE MID MISSISSIPPI...WESTERN OHIO AND TENNESSEE VALLEYS EARLY THIS MORNING.

WITH DAYTIME HEATING THE COMBINATION OF THE APPROACH OF THE COLD FRONT AND UPPER TROUGH AND VERY UNSTABLE AIR WILL RESULT IN WIDESPREAD SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS...INCLUDING SUPERCELLS ...DEVELOPING BY MID AFTERNOON. WIND SHEAR IS FAVORABLE FOR TORNADIC SUPERCELLS WITH A FEW STRONG TORNADOES POSSIBLE.

INITIAL DEVELOPMENT WILL LIKELY OCCUR OVER THE LOWER MISSOURI VALLEY AND THEN MOVE EASTWARD INTO THE OHIO AND TENNESSEE VALLEYS TONIGHT STORMS WILL DEVELOP INTO SHORT LINES AND BOWS ENHANCING THE WIND DAMAGE POTENTIAL. THIS ACTIVITY WILL THEN LIKELY CONTINUE MUCH OF THE NIGHT AS IT MOVES EASTWARD INTO THE MOIST AIR MASS.

THIS IS POTENTIALLY A VERY DANGEROUS SITUATION. THOSE IN THE THREATENED AREA ARE URGED TO REVIEW SEVERE WEATHER SAFETY RULES AND TO LISTEN TO RADIO...TELEVISION...AND NOAA WEATHER RADIO FOR POSSIBLE WATCHES...WARNINGS...AND STATEMENTS LATER TODAY.

..HALES.. 05/30/2004